Clay Davenport has published his 2012 projections (Feb 12). Projected division standings:
AL Central | Won | Lost | Runs F | Runs A |
---|---|---|---|---|
DET | 88 | 74 | 770 | 701 |
CWS | 79 | 83 | 697 | 721 |
CLE | 77 | 85 | 700 | 736 |
MIN | 72 | 90 | 678 | 763 |
KCR | 71 | 91 | 681 | 779 |
The projections for the Sox hitters:
Last | First | Age | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | TRND | HBP | BA | OBP | SLG | EqBA | EqOBP | EqSLG | EqA | EQR | VORP | Defense | FRAA | WARP | Upside1 | Break | Improve | Collapse | Attrition | Comparables |
CWS | TEAM | -25 | 6104 | 5574 | 697 | 1469 | 285 | 22 | 191 | 665 | 474 | 1122 | 98 | 45 | -3 | 57 | 0.264 | 0.328 | 0.425 | 0.26 | 0.328 | 0.411 | 0.254 | 673 | 209 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 20.3 | 17 | 39.6 | 28.7 | 23.8 | 0 | |
Konerko | Paul | 36 | 1B | 627 | 549 | 75 | 156 | 28 | 1 | 31 | 98 | 70 | 96 | 1 | 1 | -35 | 7 | 0.285 | 0.373 | 0.509 | 0.278 | 0.373 | 0.489 | 0.29 | 89 | 38 | 118-1B | 4 | 4.4 | 37 | 11 | 32 | 28 | 31 | Rafael_Palmeiro,Norm_Cash,Will_Clark,Joe_Adcock |
Ramirez | Alexei | 30 | SS | 607 | 563 | 71 | 155 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 77 | 41 | 77 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0.275 | 0.328 | 0.425 | 0.273 | 0.329 | 0.413 | 0.254 | 67 | 28 | 136-SS | 0 | 2.9 | 19 | 16 | 37 | 30 | 14 | Frank_Bolling,Johnny_Logan,Jack_Wilson,Todd_Walker |
De_Aza | Alejandro | 28 | LF | 587 | 539 | 74 | 150 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 53 | 44 | 102 | 24 | 9 | -22 | 4 | 0.279 | 0.338 | 0.411 | 0.277 | 0.34 | 0.405 | 0.256 | 66 | 17 | 131-LF | 2 | 2.4 | 13 | 13 | 39 | 31 | 29 | Kevin_Romine,Trent_Oeltjen,Matt_Diaz,Kevin_Thompson |
Rios | Alex | 31 | CF | 562 | 526 | 74 | 143 | 28 | 2 | 17 | 48 | 31 | 79 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0.271 | 0.317 | 0.431 | 0.27 | 0.319 | 0.421 | 0.252 | 62 | 22 | 121-CF | 2 | 1.9 | 23 | 23 | 47 | 29 | 32 | Garry_Maddox,Juan_Beniquez,Marquis_Grissom,Jim_Busby |
Viciedo | Dayan | 23 | RF | 562 | 524 | 63 | 140 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 33 | 109 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 5 | 0.268 | 0.317 | 0.432 | 0.263 | 0.316 | 0.418 | 0.25 | 60 | 12 | 145-RF | 0 | 0.8 | 12 | 22 | 42 | 30 | 17 | Cody_Haerther,Mark_Ryal,Juan_Rivera,Brandon_Moss |
Dunn | Adam | 32 | 1B | 544 | 463 | 61 | 107 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 69 | 75 | 163 | 0 | 1 | -35 | 5 | 0.231 | 0.345 | 0.443 | 0.224 | 0.345 | 0.42 | 0.264 | 64 | 17 | 121-1B | 2 | 1.4 | 31 | 12 | 34 | 36 | 32 | Tony_Solaita,Brian_Daubach,Russell_Branyan,Jim_Gentile |
Beckham | Gordon | 25 | 2B | 516 | 471 | 55 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 37 | 90 | 5 | 3 | 48 | 9 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 0.424 | 0.26 | 0.328 | 0.412 | 0.252 | 56 | 21 | 137-2B | 1 | 2.2 | 25 | 25 | 50 | 15 | 12 | Wil_Cordero,Glenn_Hubbard,Kurt_Stillwell,Adrian_Beltre |
Morel | Brent | 25 | 3B | 500 | 471 | 53 | 127 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 26 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.312 | 0.417 | 0.267 | 0.312 | 0.404 | 0.245 | 52 | 12 | 142-3B | -2 | 1.4 | 17 | 26 | 46 | 16 | 16 | Mike_Lamb,Mike_Richardt,Daniel_Murphy,Rich_Aurilia |
Lillibridge | Brent | 28 | RF | 484 | 437 | 59 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 41 | 122 | 24 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 0.24 | 0.314 | 0.401 | 0.241 | 0.319 | 0.392 | 0.246 | 51 | 8 | 91-RF | 3 | 1.4 | 27 | 19 | 43 | 23 | 16 | Gerald_Williams,Bob_Brower,Curtis_Pride,Reggie_Sanders |
Pierzynski | A.J. | 35 | C | 418 | 396 | 40 | 112 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 19 | 37 | 1 | 1 | -43 | 3 | 0.283 | 0.321 | 0.413 | 0.281 | 0.321 | 0.401 | 0.246 | 43 | 17 | 93-C | -1 | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | 35 | 40 | 40 | Brian_Harper,Mike_Redmond,Mike_Lieberthal,Darrin_Fletcher |
Flowers | Tyler | 26 | C | 261 | 228 | 27 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 77 | 1 | 1 | -13 | 4 | 0.232 | 0.33 | 0.407 | 0.229 | 0.332 | 0.395 | 0.251 | 28 | 12 | 110-C | -2 | 0.8 | 13 | 8 | 35 | 36 | 24 | Kelly_Shoppach,George_Kottaras,Eric_Crozier,Benji_Simonton |
Martinez | Osvaldo | 24 | SS | 98 | 92 | 10 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 0.256 | 0.304 | 0.341 | 0.251 | 0.302 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 8 | 1 | 134-SS | -4 | 0.1 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 37 | 27 | Luis_Nunez,Denny_Hocking,Juan_Castro,Juan_Gonzalez |
Escobar | Eduardo | 23 | SS | 66 | 63 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.248 | 0.284 | 0.337 | 0.242 | 0.28 | 0.327 | 0.215 | 5 | 0 | 139-SS | -2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 40 | 33 | 24 | Sharlon_Schoop,Anderson_Hernandez,Tony_Pena,Argenis_Diaz |
Young | Delwyn | 30 | RF | 37 | 34 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 0.243 | 0.298 | 0.377 | 0.239 | 0.298 | 0.358 | 0.228 | 3 | 0 | 85-RF | -1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 50 | 49 | Bruce_Aven,Lyle_Mouton,Joe_Borchard,Butch_Huskey |
Shoemaker | Brady | 25 | LF | 37 | 34 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.257 | 0.317 | 0.386 | 0.252 | 0.315 | 0.373 | 0.239 | 4 | 0 | 122-LF | 1 | 0.1 | 12 | 13 | 44 | 32 | 13 | Jason_Grove,Jeremy_Slayden,Tony_Acevedo,Joey_Butler |
Johnson | Dan | 32 | 1B | 35 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0.245 | 0.341 | 0.43 | 0.242 | 0.344 | 0.413 | 0.26 | 4 | 1 | 88-1B | 3 | 0.1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 40 | 47 | Larry_Sutton,Keith_Ginter,Jason_Lane,Jack_Voigt |
Short | Brandon | 23 | CF | 34 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.248 | 0.292 | 0.38 | 0.245 | 0.292 | 0.368 | 0.229 | 3 | 1 | 133-CF | -2 | -0.1 | 6 | 19 | 39 | 35 | 21 | Torii_Hunter,Jereme_Milons,Josh_Kroeger,Chris_Aguila |
Thompson | Trayce | 21 | CF | 34 | 31 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.364 | 0.212 | 0.276 | 0.347 | 0.219 | 3 | 0 | 132-CF | 0 | -0.1 | 4 | 32 | 45 | 38 | 23 | Darond_Stovall,Jai_Miller,Andrew_Rundle,Kyler_Burke |
Danks | Jordan | 25 | CF | 33 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.238 | 0.302 | 0.377 | 0.235 | 0.304 | 0.365 | 0.232 | 3 | 1 | 123-CF | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 36 | 24 | Brad_Snyder,Steve_Hosey,Kinnis_Pledger,Corey_Brown |
Smith | Kevan | 24 | C | 32 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.257 | 0.322 | 0.394 | 0.256 | 0.324 | 0.382 | 0.243 | 3 | 1 | 114-C | -4 | 0.1 | 8 | 0 | 18 | 49 | 9 | Barry_Gunther,Mike_Stefanski,Joe_Durso,Brian_Bormaster |
And the projections for the Sox pitchers:
Last | First | Age | Role | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | GBO% | BABIP | Trend | WHIP | RA | ERA | PERA | EqERA | EqH9 | EqBB9 | EqSO9 | EqHR9 | VORP | RAA | WARP | Upside | Break | Improve | Collapse | Attrition | Comparables |
CWS | TEAM | 79 | 83 | 40 | 533 | 162 | 1460 | 1368 | 721 | 671 | 149 | 515 | 1170 | 45 | 0.28 | 28 | 1.29 | 4.44 | 4.14 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 1 | 175 | -3 | 19 | 59 | 17 | 45 | 25 | 13 | 0 | ||
Danks | John | 27 | Sta | 11 | 11 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 199.3 | 190 | 97 | 91 | 20 | 62 | 154 | 46 | 0.283 | 27 | 1.26 | 4.39 | 4.09 | 3.97 | 4.17 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 2.8 | 92 | 7 | 46 | 17 | 8 | Joel_Pineiro,Jeff_Francis,Jason_Schmidt,Brad_Penny |
Floyd | Gavin | 29 | Sta | 11 | 11 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 195.7 | 188 | 91 | 85 | 19 | 50 | 150 | 49 | 0.284 | 22 | 1.22 | 4.19 | 3.9 | 3.82 | 3.99 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 6 | 0.9 | 30 | 8 | 3.2 | 114 | 11 | 41 | 19 | 11 | Dwight_Gooden,Matt_Morris,Johnny_Podres,Steve_Rogers |
Humber | Philip | 29 | Sta | 8 | 9 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 154.3 | 155 | 81 | 75 | 16 | 45 | 108 | 46 | 0.288 | 35 | 1.29 | 4.7 | 4.37 | 4.26 | 4.3 | 9 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 15 | -2 | 1.6 | 28 | 16 | 49 | 24 | 11 | Chris_Narveson,Jim_Brower,Colby_Lewis,Scott_Kamieniecki |
Peavy | Jake | 31 | Sta | 8 | 8 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 141.7 | 134 | 66 | 62 | 15 | 36 | 113 | 43 | 0.28 | 8 | 1.2 | 4.22 | 3.92 | 3.78 | 4.07 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 22 | 6 | 2.4 | 108 | 5 | 42 | 20 | 12 | Jason_Schmidt,Wandy_Rodriguez,John_Candelaria,Sterling_Hitchcock |
Sale | Chris | 23 | Sta | 7 | 8 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 133.3 | 123 | 66 | 61 | 13 | 49 | 119 | 54 | 0.285 | 45 | 1.29 | 4.44 | 4.13 | 3.94 | 3.81 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 15 | 1 | 1.6 | 73 | 24 | 44 | 35 | 6 | Francisco_Rodrigue,Joba_Chamberlain,Ambiorix_Burgos,Len_Barker |
Axelrod | Dylan | 26 | Swi | 6 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 14 | 114.7 | 109 | 55 | 51 | 12 | 37 | 85 | 43 | 0.279 | 9 | 1.27 | 4.34 | 4.04 | 4.06 | 4.34 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 14 | 2 | 1.5 | 23 | 17 | 43 | 28 | 20 | Tony_Fossas,Jason_Rakers,Shawn_Sedlacek,Richard_Strasser |
Heath | Deunte | 26 | Swi | 3 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 68.7 | 61 | 39 | 36 | 8 | 40 | 60 | 40 | 0.271 | 15 | 1.47 | 5.13 | 4.77 | 4.61 | 4.89 | 8.4 | 5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 2 | -4 | 0.2 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 29 | 26 | Todd_Credeur,Cedrick_Bowers,Ramon_Romero,Josh_Schmidt |
Stewart | Zach | 25 | Sta | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 63.3 | 67 | 36 | 33 | 7 | 22 | 39 | 48 | 0.293 | 30 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 4.75 | 4.77 | 4.62 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0.3 | 11 | 22 | 47 | 19 | 21 | John_Cummings,Brad_Rigby,Kevin_Jarvis,Clayton_Mortensen |
Reed | Addison | 23 | Rel | 4 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 60 | 49 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 57 | 33 | 0.259 | 32 | 1.12 | 3.6 | 3.35 | 3.18 | 4.06 | 8 | 2.4 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 14 | 6 | 1.5 | 31 | 21 | 44 | 36 | 9 | Evan_Scribner,Jesse_Carlson,Tony_Sipp,Smokey_Everett |
Thornton | Matt | 35 | Rel | 4 | 3 | 30 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 52 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 19 | 56 | 47 | 0.274 | 56 | 1.17 | 3.65 | 3.4 | 3.38 | 3.73 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 16 | 5 | 1.8 | 57 | 28 | 44 | 34 | 5 | Mike_Stanton,Paul_Assenmacher,Steve_Farr,Billy_Wagner |
Crain | Jesse | 30 | Rel | 3 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 51 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 28 | 57 | 37 | 0.267 | 40 | 1.31 | 4.17 | 3.88 | 3.87 | 4.37 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 26 | 39 | 33 | 9 | Alan_Embree,Mike_Jackson,Craig_Breslow,Kevin_Gregg |
Castro | Simon | 24 | Rel | 2 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 50 | 46 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 20 | 38 | 38 | 0.267 | 33 | 1.32 | 4.81 | 4.48 | 4.33 | 4.84 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 3 | -2 | 0.4 | 10 | 17 | 53 | 16 | 19 | Matt_Chico,Mitch_Atkins,Drew_Naylor,Andre_Treadway |
Bruney | Brian | 30 | Rel | 2 | 3 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 50 | 45 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 28 | 43 | 45 | 0.274 | 27 | 1.47 | 4.83 | 4.5 | 4.57 | 4.69 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0.1 | 17 | 22 | 44 | 33 | 14 | Richie_Lewis,Yorkis_Perez,Toby_Borland,Ron_Villone |
Ohman | Will | 34 | Rel | 2 | 3 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 45 | 39 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 45 | 0.274 | 39 | 1.29 | 4.42 | 4.12 | 3.87 | 4.06 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 3 | -1 | 0.4 | 32 | 29 | 48 | 33 | 17 | Mark_Guthrie,Doug_Bair,Jeffrey_Williams,Steve_Reed |
Infante | Gregory | 24 | Rel | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 25 | 46 | 0.28 | 61 | 1.53 | 5.26 | 4.9 | 4.93 | 5.05 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 58 | 13 | 16 | Zachary_Phillips,Lee_Langley,Francis_Beltran,Willie_Eyre |
Veal | Donnie | 27 | Rel | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 30 | 27 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 44 | 0.272 | 16 | 1.66 | 5.39 | 5.02 | 5.16 | 5.49 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 48 | 26 | 27 | Jeff_Zaske,Jon_Cannon,Mike_Bumatay,Colin_McLaughlin |
From a quick glance these look too good! 750 OPS out of Dunn/Rios, nearly 800 OPS out of Beckham, and WHIPs in the 1.2s from the entire starting rotation.
Haha, he projects a higher OBP for Kevan Smith than AJ Pierzynski. This amuses me.
Comment by JJ — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 12:33 am |
with numbers like these, the Sox could be in the race for a wildcard…
Comment by The Wizard — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 1:24 pm |
Oh, and the comps for Delwyn Young are just the best. I can’t decide what’s the better name:
Bruce Aven, Lyle Mouton, Joe Borchard, Butch Huskey
Comment by JJ — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 12:35 am |
wait, are you implying these guys aren’t HoFers?
Comment by The Wizard — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 1:25 pm |
So, more Dan Johnson?
Comment by JRFegan — February 14, 2012 @ February 14, 2012 10:29 pm |
hopefully dunn makes the answer ‘no’. wait, did I say ‘it’s up to dunn’? johnson will be here by June…
Comment by The Wizard — February 14, 2012 @ February 14, 2012 11:02 pm |
I just remembered lilli has a 1B glove. so, no johnson. probably!
Comment by The Wizard — February 16, 2012 @ February 16, 2012 2:44 am |
But he’s got the 3rd-highest OBP on the team!
Comment by JRFegan — February 17, 2012 @ February 17, 2012 11:45 am |
small size sample! [35 PA]
ps. can we make such an argument when talking about a projection?
Comment by The Wizard — February 17, 2012 @ February 17, 2012 8:46 pm |
[…] would be fun, but pointless. Delwyn Young as a 5th outfielder would probably just be pointless. Clay Davenport depressingly projected 1B Dan Johnson to be the 3rd best hitter on the team in 2012, but save for 13 games, he's only […]
Pingback by Position Battles! | White Sox Observer — February 27, 2012 @ February 27, 2012 2:16 am |