White Sox Opening Day lineup

Scott Merkin:

Other White Sox links:

• J.J. previews the outfield, and the bullpen. And together with Toni Andracki publishes the 2012 All-Chicago team.
• James previews the AL Central race, and explains the White Sox’ advantage as the start of 2012.
• Fangraphs’ Marc Hulet says there are dark clouds over the South Side..
• MLBTR reviews the White Sox offseason.
• FutureSox posts the previews for the Sox minor league teams (rookie ball starts after June’s draft): Charlotte Knights (AAA), Birmingham Barons (AA), Winston-Salem Dash (A+), Kannapolis Intimidators (A). Baseball America previews the Sox minor league system too.

And Slate’s Lily Rothman has an excellent article on the plight of Minor League players.

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RLYW’s 2012 MLB Projection Blowout

SG has aggregated his standings projections. Here are the AL Central projected standings:

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  …

CAIRO, which is my own projection system.
Tangotiger’s Marcel.
The Hardball Times’s Oliver.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA.
Dan Szyborski’s ZiPS.

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS have their own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version of those forecasts.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what those forecasts say and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official ones. …

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	86	76	784	736	53.5%	1.1%	11.0%	65.6%	76 – 96
CLE	82	80	767	751	30.7%	1.6%	7.8%	40.1%	72 – 92
CHA	76	86	707	772	8.0%	1.0%	2.8%	11.8%	66 – 86
KC	75	87	705	765	5.6%	0.4%	1.6%	7.7%	65 – 85
MIN	71	91	731	822	2.1%	0.1%	0.6%	2.9%	61 – 81

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection:

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	87	75	803	741	55.2%	1.3%	10.3%	66.8%	77 – 97
CLE	84	78	759	721	36.4%	2.4%	9.3%	48.0%	74 – 94
CHA	74	88	699	806	3.0%	0.2%	0.8%	4.0%	64 – 84
KC	73	89	682	754	3.6%	0.2%	0.8%	4.6%	63 – 83
MIN	71	91	725	815	1.8%	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	61 – 8

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Marcel Edition:

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	84	78	756	723	41.0%	1.5%	9.9%	52.4%	74 – 94
CLE	83	79	755	738	33.7%	2.0%	8.4%	44.1%	73 – 93
CHA	79	83	697	714	13.1%	2.0%	5.1%	20.2%	69 – 89
KC	78	84	708	735	11.0%	1.2%	3.6%	15.7%	68 – 88
MIN	70	92	711	818	1.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.8%	60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Oliver Edition:

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	88	74	760	696	67.2%	1.5%	14.1%	82.7%	78 – 98
CHA	79	83	695	711	13.0%	2.4%	5.5%	20.9%	69 – 89
CLE	79	83	753	771	12.9%	1.9%	5.9%	20.7%	69 – 89
KC	76	86	705	754	4.7%	0.7%	2.4%	7.7%	66 – 86
MIN	73	89	716	793	2.2%	0.4%	1.4%	3.9%	63 – 83

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – PECOTA Edition:

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	85	77	789	746	56.9%	0.7%	11.2%	68.9%	75 – 95
CLE	82	80	776	757	33.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.7%	72 – 92
CHA	75	87	712	806	6.1%	0.4%	1.5%	7.9%	65 – 85
MIN	71	91	739	835	2.3%	0.0%	0.6%	2.9%	61 – 81
KC	70	92	697	803	1.4%	0.1%	0.3%	1.7%	60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – ZiPS Edition:

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
DET	84	78	812	776	47.4%	0.8%	9.2%	57.4%	74 – 94
CLE	83	79	792	768	37.2%	0.8%	7.0%	44.9%	73 – 93
KC	76	86	731	781	7.5%	0.0%	1.1%	8.6%	66 – 86
CHA	74	88	730	827	4.9%	0.0%	1.0%	5.8%	64 – 84
MIN	72	90	762	846	3.1%	0.1%	0.5%	3.7%	62 – 82

There is a common theme on all these…

Robin Ventura’s batting order thoughts

Ventura wants:

• Alejandro De Aza will bat leadoff.
• A.J. Pierzynski to bat #2 but not against lefties (possibly Brent Morel will bat #2 against lefties)
• Alex Rios likely to bat #3
• Paul Konerko to bat #4
• Adam Dunn to bat #5

Chris Sale had a good start in today’s intrasquad game:

Sale said he was mindful during warmups and at the start of the game to not go hard from the onset.“

Just taking it nice and easy and really loosening it up because you have time,” he said. “You’re in no rush. That was nice to go out there and flip some in and start stretching it out and pick it up as it goes.”

Shingo Takatsu, aka Mr. Zero, made an appearance!

And a photo from today’s game. Chris Sale pitches to Alex Rios:

More pictures here.

Other White Sox links:

• Chris has an excellent post on Scott Boras.
• J.J. agrees with Sergio Santos’ statement that the Sox didn’t really rebuild in this off-season.
• Ozzie Guillen didn’t thought much of the Sox sports pcychologist, Dr. Jeff Fishbein.
• SeedlingsToStars’ Wally Fish looks how AL Central teams fared in various ‘Top 100 prospects’ lists.

Brian Anderson news!

Scott Merkin:

“It might sound arrogant, but I know how good I am at pitching,” Anderson told MLB.com during a recent interview. “I’m extremely talented on the mound, and I want to prove it to people.

“Some people might think this is a joke, and wonder ‘Why doesn’t he just retire?’ Well, they are entitled to their own opinions. I appreciate all the support fans showed me in Chicago, and how they really stuck by me. Hopefully in my new pursuit, in my new dream that I want to pursue, I hope they will give me a chance. If some people don’t, I don’t care. My attitude is so much different.”

… No regrets exist for Anderson over his past life as a center fielder. He holds mostly positive memories from his time with the White Sox, and a few he would like to forget. But Anderson has no regrets about making his career-changing choice.

“I’ve been wrong before, and I could be wrong again. But I don’t think I am,” Anderson said. “If I had a decent rookie year [in 2006], all the other stuff would have taken care of itself. I don’t point the finger at anyone but myself. But I’ve never been happier.”

Other White Sox links:

• James looks at the Kosuke Fukudome signing, and on how to best arrange the outfield. And he looks at the Sox’s ‘Do what you can, fellas,’ approach to win the division.
• J.J., also, writes how to best use Kosuke Fukudome, what happened to him in Cleveland, and why the Sox didn’t go with Jordan Danks. And he explains what things to watch in Chris Sale’s pitching in Spring Training.
• Kevin Goldstein published his ‘Top 101 prospects for 2012’ list. The only Sox prospect in it was Addison Reed at #81. All other AL Central teams fared better on Golstein’s list.

Clay Davenport’s 2012 White Sox projections

Clay Davenport has published his 2012 projections (Feb 12). Projected division standings:

AL Central	Won	Lost	Runs F	Runs A
DET	88	74	770	701
CWS	79	83	697	721
CLE	77	85	700	736
MIN	72	90	678	763
KCR	71	91	681	779

The projections for the Sox hitters:

Last	First	Age	Pos	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	TRND	HBP	BA	OBP	SLG	EqBA	EqOBP	EqSLG	EqA	EQR	VORP	Defense	FRAA	WARP	Upside1	Break	Improve	Collapse	Attrition	Comparables
CWS	TEAM		-25	6104	5574	697	1469	285	22	191	665	474	1122	98	45	-3	57	0.264	0.328	0.425	0.26	0.328	0.411	0.254	673	209	7	5	21	20.3	17	39.6	28.7	23.8	0
Konerko	Paul	36	1B	627	549	75	156	28	1	31	98	70	96	1	1	-35	7	0.285	0.373	0.509	0.278	0.373	0.489	0.29	89	38	118-1B	4	4.4	37	11	32	28	31	Rafael_Palmeiro,Norm_Cash,Will_Clark,Joe_Adcock
Ramirez	Alexei	30	SS	607	563	71	155	30	2	17	77	41	77	9	4	10	3	0.275	0.328	0.425	0.273	0.329	0.413	0.254	67	28	136-SS	0	2.9	19	16	37	30	14	Frank_Bolling,Johnny_Logan,Jack_Wilson,Todd_Walker
De_Aza	Alejandro	28	LF	587	539	74	150	29	5	10	53	44	102	24	9	-22	4	0.279	0.338	0.411	0.277	0.34	0.405	0.256	66	17	131-LF	2	2.4	13	13	39	31	29	Kevin_Romine,Trent_Oeltjen,Matt_Diaz,Kevin_Thompson
Rios	Alex	31	CF	562	526	74	143	28	2	17	48	31	79	17	8	0	4	0.271	0.317	0.431	0.27	0.319	0.421	0.252	62	22	121-CF	2	1.9	23	23	47	29	32	Garry_Maddox,Juan_Beniquez,Marquis_Grissom,Jim_Busby
Viciedo	Dayan	23	RF	562	524	63	140	24	1	20	65	33	109	2	2	19	5	0.268	0.317	0.432	0.263	0.316	0.418	0.25	60	12	145-RF	0	0.8	12	22	42	30	17	Cody_Haerther,Mark_Ryal,Juan_Rivera,Brandon_Moss
Dunn	Adam	32	1B	544	463	61	107	21	1	25	69	75	163	0	1	-35	5	0.231	0.345	0.443	0.224	0.345	0.42	0.264	64	17	121-1B	2	1.4	31	12	34	36	32	Tony_Solaita,Brian_Daubach,Russell_Branyan,Jim_Gentile
Beckham	Gordon	25	2B	516	471	55	123	26	2	16	45	37	90	5	3	48	9	0.262	0.327	0.424	0.26	0.328	0.412	0.252	56	21	137-2B	1	2.2	25	25	50	15	12	Wil_Cordero,Glenn_Hubbard,Kurt_Stillwell,Adrian_Beltre
Morel	Brent	25	3B	500	471	53	127	26	2	13	48	26	73	8	3	38	2	0.27	0.312	0.417	0.267	0.312	0.404	0.245	52	12	142-3B	-2	1.4	17	26	46	16	16	Mike_Lamb,Mike_Richardt,Daniel_Murphy,Rich_Aurilia
Lillibridge	Brent	28	RF	484	437	59	105	21	2	15	46	41	122	24	9	19	6	0.24	0.314	0.401	0.241	0.319	0.392	0.246	51	8	91-RF	3	1.4	27	19	43	23	16	Gerald_Williams,Bob_Brower,Curtis_Pride,Reggie_Sanders
Pierzynski	A.J.	35	C	418	396	40	112	21	1	9	43	19	37	1	1	-43	3	0.283	0.321	0.413	0.281	0.321	0.401	0.246	43	17	93-C	-1	1.5	12	9	35	40	40	Brian_Harper,Mike_Redmond,Mike_Lieberthal,Darrin_Fletcher
Flowers	Tyler	26	C	261	228	27	53	10	1	9	28	29	77	1	1	-13	4	0.232	0.33	0.407	0.229	0.332	0.395	0.251	28	12	110-C	-2	0.8	13	8	35	36	24	Kelly_Shoppach,George_Kottaras,Eric_Crozier,Benji_Simonton
Martinez	Osvaldo	24	SS	98	92	10	23	4	1	1	9	6	15	2	1	-3	1	0.256	0.304	0.341	0.251	0.302	0.333	0.224	8	1	134-SS	-4	0.1	4	17	38	37	27	Luis_Nunez,Denny_Hocking,Juan_Castro,Juan_Gonzalez
Escobar	Eduardo	23	SS	66	63	7	16	3	1	1	6	3	13	1	1	1	0	0.248	0.284	0.337	0.242	0.28	0.327	0.215	5	0	139-SS	-2	0	2	24	40	33	24	Sharlon_Schoop,Anderson_Hernandez,Tony_Pena,Argenis_Diaz
Young	Delwyn	30	RF	37	34	4	8	2	0	1	3	2	8	0	0	-6	0	0.243	0.298	0.377	0.239	0.298	0.358	0.228	3	0	85-RF	-1	0	6	11	27	50	49	Bruce_Aven,Lyle_Mouton,Joe_Borchard,Butch_Huskey
Shoemaker	Brady	25	LF	37	34	4	9	2	0	1	3	3	9	0	0	1	0	0.257	0.317	0.386	0.252	0.315	0.373	0.239	4	0	122-LF	1	0.1	12	13	44	32	13	Jason_Grove,Jeremy_Slayden,Tony_Acevedo,Joey_Butler
Johnson	Dan	32	1B	35	30	4	7	2	0	1	5	4	6	0	0	-4	0	0.245	0.341	0.43	0.242	0.344	0.413	0.26	4	1	88-1B	3	0.1	9	19	27	40	47	Larry_Sutton,Keith_Ginter,Jason_Lane,Jack_Voigt
Short	Brandon	23	CF	34	32	4	8	2	0	1	4	2	8	1	0	0	0	0.248	0.292	0.38	0.245	0.292	0.368	0.229	3	1	133-CF	-2	-0.1	6	19	39	35	21	Torii_Hunter,Jereme_Milons,Josh_Kroeger,Chris_Aguila
Thompson	Trayce	21	CF	34	31	4	7	1	0	1	4	2	10	0	0	1	0	0.218	0.278	0.364	0.212	0.276	0.347	0.219	3	0	132-CF	0	-0.1	4	32	45	38	23	Darond_Stovall,Jai_Miller,Andrew_Rundle,Kyler_Burke
Danks	Jordan	25	CF	33	30	3	7	1	0	1	3	3	9	1	0	-1	0	0.238	0.302	0.377	0.235	0.304	0.365	0.232	3	1	123-CF	0	0	9	11	35	36	24	Brad_Snyder,Steve_Hosey,Kinnis_Pledger,Corey_Brown
Smith	Kevan	24	C	32	29	3	8	2	0	1	3	2	5	0	0	-2	0	0.257	0.322	0.394	0.256	0.324	0.382	0.243	3	1	114-C	-4	0.1	8	0	18	49	9	Barry_Gunther,Mike_Stefanski,Joe_Durso,Brian_Bormaster

And the projections for the Sox pitchers:

Last	First	Age	Role	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GBO%	BABIP	Trend	WHIP	RA	ERA	PERA	EqERA	EqH9	EqBB9	EqSO9	EqHR9	VORP	RAA	WARP	Upside	Break	Improve	Collapse	Attrition	Comparables
CWS	TEAM			79	83	40	533	162	1460	1368	721	671	149	515	1170	45	0.28	28	1.29	4.44	4.14	4.05	4.25	8.5	3.1	6.2	1	175	-3	19	59	17	45	25	13	0
Danks	John	27	Sta	11	11	0	30	30	199.3	190	97	91	20	62	154	46	0.283	27	1.26	4.39	4.09	3.97	4.17	8.7	2.7	6	1	27	4	2.8	92	7	46	17	8	Joel_Pineiro,Jeff_Francis,Jason_Schmidt,Brad_Penny
Floyd	Gavin	29	Sta	11	11	0	30	30	195.7	188	91	85	19	50	150	49	0.284	22	1.22	4.19	3.9	3.82	3.99	8.6	2.3	6	0.9	30	8	3.2	114	11	41	19	11	Dwight_Gooden,Matt_Morris,Johnny_Podres,Steve_Rogers
Humber	Philip	29	Sta	8	9	0	26	26	154.3	155	81	75	16	45	108	46	0.288	35	1.29	4.7	4.37	4.26	4.3	9	2.6	5.5	1.1	15	-2	1.6	28	16	49	24	11	Chris_Narveson,Jim_Brower,Colby_Lewis,Scott_Kamieniecki
Peavy	Jake	31	Sta	8	8	0	23	23	141.7	134	66	62	15	36	113	43	0.28	8	1.2	4.22	3.92	3.78	4.07	8.6	2.3	6.2	1.1	22	6	2.4	108	5	42	20	12	Jason_Schmidt,Wandy_Rodriguez,John_Candelaria,Sterling_Hitchcock
Sale	Chris	23	Sta	7	8	0	22	22	133.3	123	66	61	13	49	119	54	0.285	45	1.29	4.44	4.13	3.94	3.81	7.8	3.4	7.4	0.8	15	1	1.6	73	24	44	35	6	Francisco_Rodrigue,Joba_Chamberlain,Ambiorix_Burgos,Len_Barker
Axelrod	Dylan	26	Swi	6	6	0	27	14	114.7	109	55	51	12	37	85	43	0.279	9	1.27	4.34	4.04	4.06	4.34	8.7	2.8	5.7	0.9	14	2	1.5	23	17	43	28	20	Tony_Fossas,Jason_Rakers,Shawn_Sedlacek,Richard_Strasser
Heath	Deunte	26	Swi	3	4	0	28	6	68.7	61	39	36	8	40	60	40	0.271	15	1.47	5.13	4.77	4.61	4.89	8.4	5	6.6	1.2	2	-4	0.2	11	24	48	29	26	Todd_Credeur,Cedrick_Bowers,Ramon_Romero,Josh_Schmidt
Stewart	Zach	25	Sta	3	4	0	11	11	63.3	67	36	33	7	22	39	48	0.293	30	1.4	5.1	4.75	4.77	4.62	9.3	3.1	4.9	1	3	-4	0.3	11	22	47	19	21	John_Cummings,Brad_Rigby,Kevin_Jarvis,Clayton_Mortensen
Reed	Addison	23	Rel	4	3	8	39	0	60	49	24	22	6	18	57	33	0.259	32	1.12	3.6	3.35	3.18	4.06	8	2.4	7.1	1.1	14	6	1.5	31	21	44	36	9	Evan_Scribner,Jesse_Carlson,Tony_Sipp,Smokey_Everett
Thornton	Matt	35	Rel	4	3	30	60	0	60	52	24	23	5	19	56	47	0.274	56	1.17	3.65	3.4	3.38	3.73	7.8	2.7	7.2	0.8	16	5	1.8	57	28	44	34	5	Mike_Stanton,Paul_Assenmacher,Steve_Farr,Billy_Wagner
Crain	Jesse	30	Rel	3	3	2	60	0	60	51	28	26	6	28	57	37	0.267	40	1.31	4.17	3.88	3.87	4.37	7.9	4.1	7.4	0.9	9	0	1	45	26	39	33	9	Alan_Embree,Mike_Jackson,Craig_Breslow,Kevin_Gregg
Castro	Simon	24	Rel	2	3	0	24	0	50	46	27	25	6	20	38	38	0.267	33	1.32	4.81	4.48	4.33	4.84	9.3	3.1	5.1	1.4	3	-2	0.4	10	17	53	16	19	Matt_Chico,Mitch_Atkins,Drew_Naylor,Andre_Treadway
Bruney	Brian	30	Rel	2	3	0	50	0	50	45	27	25	5	28	43	45	0.274	27	1.47	4.83	4.5	4.57	4.69	8.2	4.8	6.5	1	1	-2	0.1	17	22	44	33	14	Richie_Lewis,Yorkis_Perez,Toby_Borland,Ron_Villone
Ohman	Will	34	Rel	2	3	0	45	0	45	39	22	21	4	19	41	45	0.274	39	1.29	4.42	4.12	3.87	4.06	8.4	3.5	6.9	1.1	3	-1	0.4	32	29	48	33	17	Mark_Guthrie,Doug_Bair,Jeffrey_Williams,Steve_Reed
Infante	Gregory	24	Rel	2	2	0	28	0	34	33	20	18	3	20	25	46	0.28	61	1.53	5.26	4.9	4.93	5.05	8.8	4.9	5.5	0.9	0	-3	0	11	24	58	13	16	Zachary_Phillips,Lee_Langley,Francis_Beltran,Willie_Eyre
Veal	Donnie	27	Rel	1	2	0	30	0	30	27	18	17	3	23	26	44	0.272	16	1.66	5.39	5.02	5.16	5.49	8.7	6.3	5.9	1	0	-2	0	9	24	48	26	27	Jeff_Zaske,Jon_Cannon,Mike_Bumatay,Colin_McLaughlin

From a quick glance these look too good! 750 OPS out of Dunn/Rios, nearly 800 OPS out of Beckham, and WHIPs in the 1.2s from the entire starting rotation.

Pitch classification project

Dan Brooks:

… This is a little script that displays seasonal PITCHf/x data using labels tagged by the THT writers. It includes over a dozen different ways to cut and slice the data, with some of the most common PITCHf/x plots (e.g., Horizontal Movement x Speed) and some uncommon ones (e.g., fancy trajectory plots with nice art). …

Here’sJohn Danks’ player card and Chris Sale’s player card.

Other White Sox links:

• James looks at projections of the 2012 season.
• J.J. looks at BTB’s negative WAR post.
• Angie Wiatrowski at ‘White Sox Talk’ says with the “Appreciate the Game” slogan the Sox are trying to sell the experience instead of the expectations.
• Wally Fish at SeedlingToStars compares the farm systems in the AL Central.

Clay Davenport’s and sg’s 2012 projections

Clay Davenport (1/31):

AL Cent	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs A
DET	89	73	771	696
CWS	79	83	696	716
CLE	78	84	700	728
MIN	74	88	679	741
KCR	71	91	681	779

sg @ RLYB uses his 2012 Marcel forecasts (1/28):

Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
DET	84	78	747	708	43.0%	2.4%	10.1%	55.4%
CLE	83	79	722	708	30.6%	2.9%	7.8%	41.3%
CHA	79	83	686	703	15.2%	1.5%	4.2%	20.9%
KC	79	83	691	714	10.8%	1.9%	4.1%	16.9%
MIN	68	94	693	813	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%

Other White Sox links:

• James looks at this year’s SoxFest, and also contrasts it with previous SoxFests.
• J.J. asks which members of the 2005 team would you want back. Also on CSN, Gordon Beckham’s says his confidence is back.
• colin publishes his scouting report on John Danks.
• BTB’s Bill Petti calculates the number of players with negative fWAR since 2002 and the Sox have the 3rd-highest number.
• Matt Garioch at minorleagueball says there are a lot of good high school prospects at the upcoming draft. The same thing can’t be said for college prospects.

The Hardball Times projects the 2012 AL Central

The Hardball Times:

American League Central
Team	Wins	Losses
DET	91	71
MIN	85	77
CHA	76	86
CLE	76	86
KCA	63	99

Other White Sox links:

• J.J. says the White Sox were close to signing Kerry Wood and  looks at the link between Jared Mitchell and Josh Fields.
• James looks at the Michael Pineda-Jesus Montero trade, and Jake Peavy saying Ozzie Guillen quit on the Sox.
• Jim Thome was interviewed by Chuck Garfien (video). Big Jim, who the Phillies think of playing at 1B, thinks Adam Dunn, a player that’s very similar to him, will rebound this season.
• colin posts the 1st part of his pitching primer. Part 2 of colin’s pitching primer is here.

Still Way Too Early CAIRO 2012 Projected Standings

Here’s the 2nd version of the extremely early, unset rosters, AL Central CAIRO projections:

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PL%
DET	88.9	73.1	785	702	63.2%	1.78%	14.80%	79.74%
CLE	85.0	77.0	749	706	30.6%	3.40%	9.19%	43.14%
CHA	75.7	86.3	707	789	4.2%	0.15%	1.82%	6.12%
KC	73.5	88.5	682	755	1.8%	0.05%	0.64%	2.44%
MIN	67.4	94.6	715	850	0.4%	0.00%	0.06%	0.46%

BTW, Here’s the 1st version of the CAIRO projections:

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	780	703	54.3%	4.7%	59.0%
Indians	87	75	751	696	40.8%	5.9%	46.6%
White Sox	77	85	723	795	3.3%	1.5%	4.8%
Royals	73	89	684	760	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%
Twins	66	96	698	829	0.0%	–	–

Seems the loss of Carlos Quentin lowered the White Sox projections a bit. Also, the latest version’s projections feature 2 wildcard teams.

Other White Sox links:

• James looks at going after Yoenis Cespedes, and signing Luis Martinez. He also finds a destination for the DFA’s Mark Teahen in his HoF results post!
• J.J. looks at Addison Reed’s role, and what should be expected from Alejandro De Aza.

Extremely Early CAIRO 2012 Projected Standings

SG @ RLYB:

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL
Tigers	89	73	780	703	54.3%	4.7%	59.0%
Indians	87	75	751	696	40.8%	5.9%	46.6%
White Sox	77	85	723	795	3.3%	1.5%	4.8%
Royals	73	89	684	760	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%
Twins	66	96	698	829	0.0%	–	–

Last year’s ‘Extremely Early CAIRO Projected Standings’ projected 84 wins and 78 losses for the Sox. The Sox finished with 79 wins and 83 losses.

Sox pitchers John Danks and Gavin Floyd drawing trade interest

Ken Rosenthal:

For teams seeking to trade for a starting pitcher, the White Sox can offer one from Column A and one from Column B.

Lefty John Danks appeals to high-revenue teams – he will get a raise from $6 million in his final year of arbitration, then hit free agency.

Righty Gavin Floyd, on the other hand, fits nicely for low-revenue clubs – he is signed for $7 million next season with a $9.5 million club option for 2013.

The White Sox are drawing interest in both pitchers, major-league sources say. Whether they trade one, both or neither likely hinges on the trade offers they receive. …

Will the Sox trade Danks or Floyd, or let Mark Buehrle go? At least they brought back Jason Frasor…

Jon Heyman tweets the Rangers “are believed interested” in Danks.

Other White Sox links:

• James takes a look around the AL Central and the White Sox regarding their off-season moves.
• Fangraphs’ David Cameron tries to find out what’s behind Mark Buehrle’s success. J.J. takes a look.

Clay Davenport’s Playoff Odds

Clay Davenport’s Playoff Odds:

by clicking the link of each team’s name you can see a progression of that team’s playoff odds through every day of the season

based on real-data, no projections:

AL Central	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champions	Wild Card	Playoffs	1D Change	7D Change
Tigers	49	43	.515	86.6	75.4	55.92486	.43351	56.35837	7.38183	7.81095
Indians	47	42	.504	84.6	77.4	36.23713	.47695	36.71409	-5.04343	-0.89384
White Sox	44	48	.489	78.5	83.5	7.15738	.08489	7.24227	-2.87993	-9.13173
Twins	41	48	.421	71.6	90.4	.59413	.00319	.59732	.18329	.37796

projection version:

AL Central	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champions	Wild Card	Playoffs
Tigers	49	43	.503	84.7	77.3	55.51128	.47534	55.98662
Indians	47	42	.446	79.2	82.8	12.18235	.22229	12.40464
White Sox	44	48	.516	81.0	81.0	20.74908	.44954	21.19862
Twins	41	48	.508	79.0	83.0	11.51699	.23804	11.75503
Royals	37	54	.444	67.4	94.6	.04030	.00010	.04040

ELO version (ELO?):

AL Central	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champions	Wild Card	Playoffs
Tigers	49	43	1505.	85.2	76.8	42.65058	.43378	43.08437
Indians	47	42	1512.	85.0	77.0	41.53700	.43670	41.97370
White Sox	44	48	1496.	78.5	83.5	8.79992	.09117	8.89108
Twins	41	48	1501.	77.6	84.4	6.90983	.06208	6.97192
Royals	37	54	1460.	66.9	95.1	.10267	.00050	.10317

Paulie Konerko’s take inside:

The Hardball Times’ AL Central article

Paapfly @ THT:

… It’s difficult to say for how long the Indians will keep it up. There’s little doubt they have a good team. But are they this good? For what it’s worth, they’ve already played the Royals nine times and have gone 7-2 in those contests, during which they have a run differential of plus 42. Take those games away, and they’re 24-18 with a negative run differential. What’s that mean, then? The truth is, I don’t know. You could probably pick apart any team using a similar method, even the ’27 Yankees. (Well, maybe not the ’27 Yankees.)Perhaps the best thing to take away from this is that the Indians look fantastic so far, but there’s an awful lot of baseball to go. That, and the Minnesota Twins are highly unlikely to give them much trouble as the Indians do everything possible to fight off the Tigers and White Sox for the division crown. …

BTB: AL Central Hitters wOBA

Only 3 White Sox players are above the AL Central average. The Indians and Royals have 6 players that are above the AL Central average. The Tigers have five. Minnesota is worse than the Sox; only one.

Other White Sox links: J.J. comes up with an awesome nickname for Adam Dunn: Canonyero and looks on ex-Sox Brandon McCarthy’s success in Oakland, James looks at Jake Peavy’s return, the Sox search for a #2 hitter and replacing some of the Sox problematic players, and Jim looks at the sophomore struggles of Chris Sale.

White Sox Opening Day payroll: $127,789,000

USA Today:

Chicago White Sox	$127,789,000
Minnesota Twins	$112,737,000
Detroit Tigers	$105,700,231
Cleveland Indians	$49,190,566
Kansas City Royals	$36,126,000