White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

April 5, 2012

2012 WAR projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 5, 2012 11:55 pm
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David Pinto:

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player WAR: 29.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 17.7
  • Closer WAR: 1.0
  • Total WAR: 48.1

Cleveland Indians

  • Position Player WAR: 18.1
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 13.1
  • Closer WAR: 1.5
  • Total WAR: 32.7

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 10.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 14.6
  • Closer WAR: 1.6
  • Total WAR: 26.6

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player WAR: 17.7
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.5
  • Closer WAR: -0.3
  • Total WAR: 22.9

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
  • Closer WAR: -0.4
  • Total WAR: 21.6

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
  • Closer WAR: -0.4
  • Total WAR: 21.6

Hopefully we have some offensive rebounds and the position players WAR number is higher.

April 3, 2012

RLYW’s 2012 MLB Projection Blowout

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 3, 2012 3:00 pm
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SG has aggregated his standings projections. Here are the AL Central projected standings:

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  …

CAIRO, which is my own projection system.
Tangotiger’s Marcel.
The Hardball Times’s Oliver.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA.
Dan Szyborski’s ZiPS.

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS have their own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version of those forecasts.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what those forecasts say and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official ones. …

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 86 76 784 736 53.5% 1.1% 11.0% 65.6% 76 – 96
CLE 82 80 767 751 30.7% 1.6% 7.8% 40.1% 72 – 92
CHA 76 86 707 772 8.0% 1.0% 2.8% 11.8% 66 – 86
KC 75 87 705 765 5.6% 0.4% 1.6% 7.7% 65 – 85
MIN 71 91 731 822 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 61 – 81

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 – 97
CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 – 94
CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 – 84
KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 – 83
MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 – 8

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Marcel Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 84 78 756 723 41.0% 1.5% 9.9% 52.4% 74 – 94
CLE 83 79 755 738 33.7% 2.0% 8.4% 44.1% 73 – 93
CHA 79 83 697 714 13.1% 2.0% 5.1% 20.2% 69 – 89
KC 78 84 708 735 11.0% 1.2% 3.6% 15.7% 68 – 88
MIN 70 92 711 818 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Oliver Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 88 74 760 696 67.2% 1.5% 14.1% 82.7% 78 – 98
CHA 79 83 695 711 13.0% 2.4% 5.5% 20.9% 69 – 89
CLE 79 83 753 771 12.9% 1.9% 5.9% 20.7% 69 – 89
KC 76 86 705 754 4.7% 0.7% 2.4% 7.7% 66 – 86
MIN 73 89 716 793 2.2% 0.4% 1.4% 3.9% 63 – 83

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – PECOTA Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 85 77 789 746 56.9% 0.7% 11.2% 68.9% 75 – 95
CLE 82 80 776 757 33.3% 1.0% 8.3% 42.7% 72 – 92
CHA 75 87 712 806 6.1% 0.4% 1.5% 7.9% 65 – 85
MIN 71 91 739 835 2.3% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 61 – 81
KC 70 92 697 803 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – ZiPS Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 84 78 812 776 47.4% 0.8% 9.2% 57.4% 74 – 94
CLE 83 79 792 768 37.2% 0.8% 7.0% 44.9% 73 – 93
KC 76 86 731 781 7.5% 0.0% 1.1% 8.6% 66 – 86
CHA 74 88 730 827 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 5.8% 64 – 84
MIN 72 90 762 846 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.7% 62 – 82

There is a common theme on all these…

February 13, 2012

Clay Davenport’s 2012 White Sox projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 13, 2012 12:00 am
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Clay Davenport has published his 2012 projections (Feb 12). Projected division standings:

AL Central Won Lost Runs F Runs A
DET 88 74 770 701
CWS 79 83 697 721
CLE 77 85 700 736
MIN 72 90 678 763
KCR 71 91 681 779

The projections for the Sox hitters:

Last First Age Pos PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS TRND HBP BA OBP SLG EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA EQR VORP Defense FRAA WARP Upside1 Break Improve Collapse Attrition Comparables
CWS TEAM -25 6104 5574 697 1469 285 22 191 665 474 1122 98 45 -3 57 0.264 0.328 0.425 0.26 0.328 0.411 0.254 673 209 7 5 21 20.3 17 39.6 28.7 23.8 0
Konerko Paul 36 1B 627 549 75 156 28 1 31 98 70 96 1 1 -35 7 0.285 0.373 0.509 0.278 0.373 0.489 0.29 89 38 118-1B 4 4.4 37 11 32 28 31 Rafael_Palmeiro,Norm_Cash,Will_Clark,Joe_Adcock
Ramirez Alexei 30 SS 607 563 71 155 30 2 17 77 41 77 9 4 10 3 0.275 0.328 0.425 0.273 0.329 0.413 0.254 67 28 136-SS 0 2.9 19 16 37 30 14 Frank_Bolling,Johnny_Logan,Jack_Wilson,Todd_Walker
De_Aza Alejandro 28 LF 587 539 74 150 29 5 10 53 44 102 24 9 -22 4 0.279 0.338 0.411 0.277 0.34 0.405 0.256 66 17 131-LF 2 2.4 13 13 39 31 29 Kevin_Romine,Trent_Oeltjen,Matt_Diaz,Kevin_Thompson
Rios Alex 31 CF 562 526 74 143 28 2 17 48 31 79 17 8 0 4 0.271 0.317 0.431 0.27 0.319 0.421 0.252 62 22 121-CF 2 1.9 23 23 47 29 32 Garry_Maddox,Juan_Beniquez,Marquis_Grissom,Jim_Busby
Viciedo Dayan 23 RF 562 524 63 140 24 1 20 65 33 109 2 2 19 5 0.268 0.317 0.432 0.263 0.316 0.418 0.25 60 12 145-RF 0 0.8 12 22 42 30 17 Cody_Haerther,Mark_Ryal,Juan_Rivera,Brandon_Moss
Dunn Adam 32 1B 544 463 61 107 21 1 25 69 75 163 0 1 -35 5 0.231 0.345 0.443 0.224 0.345 0.42 0.264 64 17 121-1B 2 1.4 31 12 34 36 32 Tony_Solaita,Brian_Daubach,Russell_Branyan,Jim_Gentile
Beckham Gordon 25 2B 516 471 55 123 26 2 16 45 37 90 5 3 48 9 0.262 0.327 0.424 0.26 0.328 0.412 0.252 56 21 137-2B 1 2.2 25 25 50 15 12 Wil_Cordero,Glenn_Hubbard,Kurt_Stillwell,Adrian_Beltre
Morel Brent 25 3B 500 471 53 127 26 2 13 48 26 73 8 3 38 2 0.27 0.312 0.417 0.267 0.312 0.404 0.245 52 12 142-3B -2 1.4 17 26 46 16 16 Mike_Lamb,Mike_Richardt,Daniel_Murphy,Rich_Aurilia
Lillibridge Brent 28 RF 484 437 59 105 21 2 15 46 41 122 24 9 19 6 0.24 0.314 0.401 0.241 0.319 0.392 0.246 51 8 91-RF 3 1.4 27 19 43 23 16 Gerald_Williams,Bob_Brower,Curtis_Pride,Reggie_Sanders
Pierzynski A.J. 35 C 418 396 40 112 21 1 9 43 19 37 1 1 -43 3 0.283 0.321 0.413 0.281 0.321 0.401 0.246 43 17 93-C -1 1.5 12 9 35 40 40 Brian_Harper,Mike_Redmond,Mike_Lieberthal,Darrin_Fletcher
Flowers Tyler 26 C 261 228 27 53 10 1 9 28 29 77 1 1 -13 4 0.232 0.33 0.407 0.229 0.332 0.395 0.251 28 12 110-C -2 0.8 13 8 35 36 24 Kelly_Shoppach,George_Kottaras,Eric_Crozier,Benji_Simonton
Martinez Osvaldo 24 SS 98 92 10 23 4 1 1 9 6 15 2 1 -3 1 0.256 0.304 0.341 0.251 0.302 0.333 0.224 8 1 134-SS -4 0.1 4 17 38 37 27 Luis_Nunez,Denny_Hocking,Juan_Castro,Juan_Gonzalez
Escobar Eduardo 23 SS 66 63 7 16 3 1 1 6 3 13 1 1 1 0 0.248 0.284 0.337 0.242 0.28 0.327 0.215 5 0 139-SS -2 0 2 24 40 33 24 Sharlon_Schoop,Anderson_Hernandez,Tony_Pena,Argenis_Diaz
Young Delwyn 30 RF 37 34 4 8 2 0 1 3 2 8 0 0 -6 0 0.243 0.298 0.377 0.239 0.298 0.358 0.228 3 0 85-RF -1 0 6 11 27 50 49 Bruce_Aven,Lyle_Mouton,Joe_Borchard,Butch_Huskey
Shoemaker Brady 25 LF 37 34 4 9 2 0 1 3 3 9 0 0 1 0 0.257 0.317 0.386 0.252 0.315 0.373 0.239 4 0 122-LF 1 0.1 12 13 44 32 13 Jason_Grove,Jeremy_Slayden,Tony_Acevedo,Joey_Butler
Johnson Dan 32 1B 35 30 4 7 2 0 1 5 4 6 0 0 -4 0 0.245 0.341 0.43 0.242 0.344 0.413 0.26 4 1 88-1B 3 0.1 9 19 27 40 47 Larry_Sutton,Keith_Ginter,Jason_Lane,Jack_Voigt
Short Brandon 23 CF 34 32 4 8 2 0 1 4 2 8 1 0 0 0 0.248 0.292 0.38 0.245 0.292 0.368 0.229 3 1 133-CF -2 -0.1 6 19 39 35 21 Torii_Hunter,Jereme_Milons,Josh_Kroeger,Chris_Aguila
Thompson Trayce 21 CF 34 31 4 7 1 0 1 4 2 10 0 0 1 0 0.218 0.278 0.364 0.212 0.276 0.347 0.219 3 0 132-CF 0 -0.1 4 32 45 38 23 Darond_Stovall,Jai_Miller,Andrew_Rundle,Kyler_Burke
Danks Jordan 25 CF 33 30 3 7 1 0 1 3 3 9 1 0 -1 0 0.238 0.302 0.377 0.235 0.304 0.365 0.232 3 1 123-CF 0 0 9 11 35 36 24 Brad_Snyder,Steve_Hosey,Kinnis_Pledger,Corey_Brown
Smith Kevan 24 C 32 29 3 8 2 0 1 3 2 5 0 0 -2 0 0.257 0.322 0.394 0.256 0.324 0.382 0.243 3 1 114-C -4 0.1 8 0 18 49 9 Barry_Gunther,Mike_Stefanski,Joe_Durso,Brian_Bormaster

And the projections for the Sox pitchers:

Last First Age Role W L SV G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GBO% BABIP Trend WHIP RA ERA PERA EqERA EqH9 EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9 VORP RAA WARP Upside Break Improve Collapse Attrition Comparables
CWS TEAM 79 83 40 533 162 1460 1368 721 671 149 515 1170 45 0.28 28 1.29 4.44 4.14 4.05 4.25 8.5 3.1 6.2 1 175 -3 19 59 17 45 25 13 0
Danks John 27 Sta 11 11 0 30 30 199.3 190 97 91 20 62 154 46 0.283 27 1.26 4.39 4.09 3.97 4.17 8.7 2.7 6 1 27 4 2.8 92 7 46 17 8 Joel_Pineiro,Jeff_Francis,Jason_Schmidt,Brad_Penny
Floyd Gavin 29 Sta 11 11 0 30 30 195.7 188 91 85 19 50 150 49 0.284 22 1.22 4.19 3.9 3.82 3.99 8.6 2.3 6 0.9 30 8 3.2 114 11 41 19 11 Dwight_Gooden,Matt_Morris,Johnny_Podres,Steve_Rogers
Humber Philip 29 Sta 8 9 0 26 26 154.3 155 81 75 16 45 108 46 0.288 35 1.29 4.7 4.37 4.26 4.3 9 2.6 5.5 1.1 15 -2 1.6 28 16 49 24 11 Chris_Narveson,Jim_Brower,Colby_Lewis,Scott_Kamieniecki
Peavy Jake 31 Sta 8 8 0 23 23 141.7 134 66 62 15 36 113 43 0.28 8 1.2 4.22 3.92 3.78 4.07 8.6 2.3 6.2 1.1 22 6 2.4 108 5 42 20 12 Jason_Schmidt,Wandy_Rodriguez,John_Candelaria,Sterling_Hitchcock
Sale Chris 23 Sta 7 8 0 22 22 133.3 123 66 61 13 49 119 54 0.285 45 1.29 4.44 4.13 3.94 3.81 7.8 3.4 7.4 0.8 15 1 1.6 73 24 44 35 6 Francisco_Rodrigue,Joba_Chamberlain,Ambiorix_Burgos,Len_Barker
Axelrod Dylan 26 Swi 6 6 0 27 14 114.7 109 55 51 12 37 85 43 0.279 9 1.27 4.34 4.04 4.06 4.34 8.7 2.8 5.7 0.9 14 2 1.5 23 17 43 28 20 Tony_Fossas,Jason_Rakers,Shawn_Sedlacek,Richard_Strasser
Heath Deunte 26 Swi 3 4 0 28 6 68.7 61 39 36 8 40 60 40 0.271 15 1.47 5.13 4.77 4.61 4.89 8.4 5 6.6 1.2 2 -4 0.2 11 24 48 29 26 Todd_Credeur,Cedrick_Bowers,Ramon_Romero,Josh_Schmidt
Stewart Zach 25 Sta 3 4 0 11 11 63.3 67 36 33 7 22 39 48 0.293 30 1.4 5.1 4.75 4.77 4.62 9.3 3.1 4.9 1 3 -4 0.3 11 22 47 19 21 John_Cummings,Brad_Rigby,Kevin_Jarvis,Clayton_Mortensen
Reed Addison 23 Rel 4 3 8 39 0 60 49 24 22 6 18 57 33 0.259 32 1.12 3.6 3.35 3.18 4.06 8 2.4 7.1 1.1 14 6 1.5 31 21 44 36 9 Evan_Scribner,Jesse_Carlson,Tony_Sipp,Smokey_Everett
Thornton Matt 35 Rel 4 3 30 60 0 60 52 24 23 5 19 56 47 0.274 56 1.17 3.65 3.4 3.38 3.73 7.8 2.7 7.2 0.8 16 5 1.8 57 28 44 34 5 Mike_Stanton,Paul_Assenmacher,Steve_Farr,Billy_Wagner
Crain Jesse 30 Rel 3 3 2 60 0 60 51 28 26 6 28 57 37 0.267 40 1.31 4.17 3.88 3.87 4.37 7.9 4.1 7.4 0.9 9 0 1 45 26 39 33 9 Alan_Embree,Mike_Jackson,Craig_Breslow,Kevin_Gregg
Castro Simon 24 Rel 2 3 0 24 0 50 46 27 25 6 20 38 38 0.267 33 1.32 4.81 4.48 4.33 4.84 9.3 3.1 5.1 1.4 3 -2 0.4 10 17 53 16 19 Matt_Chico,Mitch_Atkins,Drew_Naylor,Andre_Treadway
Bruney Brian 30 Rel 2 3 0 50 0 50 45 27 25 5 28 43 45 0.274 27 1.47 4.83 4.5 4.57 4.69 8.2 4.8 6.5 1 1 -2 0.1 17 22 44 33 14 Richie_Lewis,Yorkis_Perez,Toby_Borland,Ron_Villone
Ohman Will 34 Rel 2 3 0 45 0 45 39 22 21 4 19 41 45 0.274 39 1.29 4.42 4.12 3.87 4.06 8.4 3.5 6.9 1.1 3 -1 0.4 32 29 48 33 17 Mark_Guthrie,Doug_Bair,Jeffrey_Williams,Steve_Reed
Infante Gregory 24 Rel 2 2 0 28 0 34 33 20 18 3 20 25 46 0.28 61 1.53 5.26 4.9 4.93 5.05 8.8 4.9 5.5 0.9 0 -3 0 11 24 58 13 16 Zachary_Phillips,Lee_Langley,Francis_Beltran,Willie_Eyre
Veal Donnie 27 Rel 1 2 0 30 0 30 27 18 17 3 23 26 44 0.272 16 1.66 5.39 5.02 5.16 5.49 8.7 6.3 5.9 1 0 -2 0 9 24 48 26 27 Jeff_Zaske,Jon_Cannon,Mike_Bumatay,Colin_McLaughlin

From a quick glance these look too good! 750 OPS out of Dunn/Rios, nearly 800 OPS out of Beckham, and WHIPs in the 1.2s from the entire starting rotation.

February 3, 2012

Pitch classification project

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 3, 2012 11:30 pm
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Dan Brooks:

This is a little script that displays seasonal PITCHf/x data using labels tagged by the THT writers. It includes over a dozen different ways to cut and slice the data, with some of the most common PITCHf/x plots (e.g., Horizontal Movement x Speed) and some uncommon ones (e.g., fancy trajectory plots with nice art). …

Here’sJohn Danks’ player card and Chris Sale’s player card.

Other White Sox links:

January 31, 2012

Clay Davenport’s and sg’s 2012 projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 31, 2012 11:30 pm
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Clay Davenport (1/31):

AL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
DET 89 73 771 696
CWS 79 83 696 716
CLE 78 84 700 728
MIN 74 88 679 741
KCR 71 91 681 779

sg @ RLYB uses his 2012 Marcel forecasts (1/28):

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%

Other White Sox links:

January 18, 2012

The Hardball Times projects the 2012 AL Central

The Hardball Times:

American League Central
Team Wins Losses
DET 91 71
MIN 85 77
CHA 76 86
CLE 76 86
KCA 63 99

Other White Sox links:

January 13, 2012

CAIRO 2012 White Sox projections (version 0.4)

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 13, 2012 10:00 pm
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SG at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog published the latest the (version 0.4) 2012 CAIRO projections. Here are the White Sox projections starting with the position players:

mlbamid Last First Age Pos Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO TB GDP HBP SH SF avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAA Pos Repl BRAR oWAR
493596 Beckham Gordon 26 2B CHA AL 134 523 466 61 115 26 1 13 53 6 4 40 96 180 8 9 5 4 .247 .315 .387 .310 54 67 -7 2 17 12 1.2
457477 de Aza Alejandro 28 CF CHA AL 63 236 212 32 56 12 2 4 23 9 4 20 44 85 4 2 2 1 .265 .331 .403 .324 27 74 -1 1 8 8 0.8
276055 Dunn Adam 33 DH CHA AL 145 599 504 65 111 24 1 29 79 1 1 95 179 223 10 6 0 3 .221 .354 .442 .353 78 85 9 -14 19 14 1.4
452095 Flowers Tyler 26 C CHA AL 59 233 201 25 44 9 1 9 24 2 1 29 66 82 3 4 1 1 .220 .331 .409 .329 27 75 0 4 7 12 1.2
117244 Konerko Paul 36 1B CHA AL 147 622 538 75 153 27 1 30 95 2 1 70 97 271 13 7 0 8 .285 .370 .504 .377 93 97 20 -11 20 29 2.9
452121 Lillibridge Brent 29 RF CHA AL 77 197 175 28 41 7 1 7 23 7 4 16 51 72 3 3 2 1 .236 .308 .410 .314 21 70 -2 -2 6 3 0.3
543569 Morel Brent 25 3B CHA AL 92 340 313 36 76 15 1 9 33 5 3 22 50 119 7 2 3 2 .244 .295 .381 .297 33 62 -7 1 11 5 0.5
150229 Pierzynski A.J. 36 C CHA AL 115 459 427 43 118 24 1 9 46 2 1 21 44 172 15 4 3 4 .277 .314 .402 .313 48 68 -5 8 15 18 1.8
425567 Rios Alexis 31 CF CHA AL 148 614 568 74 142 28 2 17 67 19 8 38 93 227 20 4 1 5 .250 .301 .399 .306 63 67 -8 2 20 14 1.4
493364 Viciedo Dayan 23 RF CHA AL 80 321 297 35 76 13 0 12 35 3 1 20 59 124 8 3 1 1 .255 .309 .419 .318 35 72 -2 -3 10 5 0.5

A .353 wOBA from Adam Dunn? I’ll take it! I’ll take the .329 wOBA from Tyler Flowers too!

And the pitcher projections:

mlbamid Last First Age Team Lg Role G GS W L Sv IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BF RA ERA FIP RAR WAR
518420 Axelrod Dylan 27 CHA AL SP 22 14 4 6 0 90 100 46 43 8 32 58 4 1 390 4.62 4.28 4.11 13 1.3
430884 Crain Jesse 31 CHA AL RP 68 0 3 4 17 66 56 29 27 7 31 62 1 2 275 4.01 3.65 3.93 10 1.0
433579 Danks John 27 CHA AL SP 25 25 8 10 0 155 157 74 69 17 48 118 5 4 652 4.28 3.99 3.93 29 2.9
425856 Floyd Gavin 29 CHA AL SP 30 30 9 11 0 188 189 90 84 20 53 147 8 10 788 4.30 4.02 3.81 35 3.5
458950 Humber Philip 30 CHA AL SP 18 15 5 6 0 92 102 53 50 14 29 58 3 3 398 5.19 4.87 4.73 8 0.8
349193 Ohman Will 35 CHA AL RP 60 0 3 3 2 49 48 25 23 7 21 45 2 2 212 4.57 4.20 4.31 4 0.4
408241 Peavy Jake 31 CHA AL SP 16 16 6 5 0 98 99 46 45 11 27 82 3 3 409 4.27 4.15 3.70 18 1.8
592665 Reed Addison 24 CHA AL RP 32 0 2 2 0 43 42 19 18 5 15 44 2 1 181 4.03 3.74 3.55 6 0.6
519242 Sale Chris 23 CHA AL RP 48 0 3 3 0 57 45 20 20 5 23 61 2 2 232 3.26 3.16 3.34 13 1.3
519242 Sale Chris 23 CHA AL SP 27 27 11 8 0 164 152 74 69 18 66 151 4 6 672 4.07 3.77 3.86 34 3.4
543819 Stewart Zach 26 CHA AL SP 20 19 4 8 0 109 135 71 67 18 44 65 5 2 488 5.88 5.55 5.31 1 0.1

Chris Sale has 2 projections; one as a starter and one as a reliever. I’ll take the 165 innings (and the 2 more wins above replacement) everyday of the week and twice on Sunday!

January 12, 2012

Still Way Too Early CAIRO 2012 Projected Standings

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 12, 2012 11:30 pm
Tags: , , , ,

Here’s the 2nd version of the extremely early, unset rosters, AL Central CAIRO projections:

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
DET 88.9 73.1 785 702 63.2% 1.78% 14.80% 79.74%
CLE 85.0 77.0 749 706 30.6% 3.40% 9.19% 43.14%
CHA 75.7 86.3 707 789 4.2% 0.15% 1.82% 6.12%
KC 73.5 88.5 682 755 1.8% 0.05% 0.64% 2.44%
MIN 67.4 94.6 715 850 0.4% 0.00% 0.06% 0.46%

BTW, Here’s the 1st version of the CAIRO projections:

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 780 703 54.3% 4.7% 59.0%
Indians 87 75 751 696 40.8% 5.9% 46.6%
White Sox 77 85 723 795 3.3% 1.5% 4.8%
Royals 73 89 684 760 1.6% 0.2% 1.8%
Twins 66 96 698 829 0.0% - -

Seems the loss of Carlos Quentin lowered the White Sox projections a bit. Also, the latest version’s projections feature 2 wildcard teams.

Other White Sox links:

December 16, 2011

Extremely Early CAIRO 2012 Projected Standings

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 16, 2011 12:00 am
Tags: ,

SG @ RLYB:

DISCLAIMER: This is very limited in telling us much about how 2012 will play out for a large number of reasons.

1) There are still a lot of roster changes coming.  This may give us some sense of how the offseason has impacted teams to this point and it also shows us how things might look if nothing changed from now until April.  Which won’t happen.

2) It’s too early to construct meaningful rosters for a lot of teams, so these projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2012 rosters.

3) In addition to that, projection systems are inherently limited.  They are designed to estimate a player’s true talent based on what they’ve done so far and also by factoring in things like age and how similar players have performed in the past.  They will generally be in the ballpark for the general population of MLB players, but they can miss significantly on individual players which can obviously affect certain teams more heavily than others.

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 780 703 54.3% 4.7% 59.0%
Indians 87 75 751 696 40.8% 5.9% 46.6%
White Sox 77 85 723 795 3.3% 1.5% 4.8%
Royals 73 89 684 760 1.6% 0.2% 1.8%
Twins 66 96 698 829 0.0% - -

Last year’s ‘Extremely Early CAIRO Projected Standings’ projected 84 wins and 78 losses for the Sox. The Sox finished with 79 wins and 83 losses.

November 17, 2011

2012 White Sox ZiPS projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 17, 2011 2:00 pm
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Dan Szymborski posted his 2012 ZiPS projections. Here are the Top 5 batting projections:

Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Paul Konerko R 1B 36 .278 .359 .493 134 493 68 137 23 1 27 87 59 91 1 1 124
Carlos Quentin R RF 29 .262 .353 .497 123 435 67 114 28 1 24 81 42 78 3 1 123
Adam Dunn L DH 32 .209 .340 .429 132 450 61 94 21 0 26 76 86 184 0 1 103
Dayan Viciedo R RF 23 .274 .328 .431 156 580 74 159 28 0 21 75 40 114 3 1 100
Alejandro De Aza L LF 28 .271 .328 .406 139 473 73 128 28 6 8 47 38 100 21 10 94

The Top 5 starting pitching projections:

Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Chris Sale L 23 3.95 10 8 26 26 152.7 132 67 18 75 163 109
Gavin Floyd R 29 4.08 12 11 30 29 185.3 182 84 20 50 149 106
John Danks L 27 4.21 12 11 30 30 188.0 187 88 23 58 145 102
Mark Buehrle L 33 4.27 10 10 27 27 175.0 195 83 21 41 90 101
Jake Peavy R 31 4.30 8 7 21 20 119.3 121 57 14 31 102 100
LEAGUE AVERAGE – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – 96

And the Top 5 relief pitching projections:

Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Matt Thornton L 35 3.21 5 3 57 0 56.0 48 20 5 19 65 134
Sergio Santos R 28 3.53 4 3 60 0 58.7 48 23 6 27 73 122
Addison Reed R 23 3.67 4 3 58 0 76.0 67 31 8 28 81 117
Jesse Crain R 30 3.92 5 4 65 0 62.0 55 27 7 31 63 110
Jason Frasor R 34 3.93 4 3 60 0 55.0 51 24 6 25 54 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE  – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – 108

For a lot more projections hit the link.

March 26, 2011

Baseball Musings’ AL Central preview

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 26, 2011 10:30 pm
Tags: ,

Pinto:

… Here’s how I see the odds of the five teams winning the division:

  1. Minnesota Twins 31%
  2. Chicago White Sox 30%
  3. Detroit Tigers 29%
  4. Cleveland Indians 6%
  5. Kansas City Royals 4%

February 11, 2011

Still too early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings (version 0.6)

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 11, 2011 7:30 pm
Tags: ,

SG @ RLYW:

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 84.3 77.7 718 704 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% -3.7 -25 -41
Twins 82.3 79.7 744 727 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -11.7 -37 56
Tigers 81.9 80.1 714 697 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% 0.9 -37 -46
Indians 70.6 91.4 711 804 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% 1.6 65 52
Royals 66.2 95.8 658 806 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -0.8 -18 -39

 

 

 

 

 

The previous standings (December 28) were:

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox 84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers 84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians 73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals 66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30

The Sox are up, while the Twinkies and the Tigers are down.

BTW, seems Kenny read the suggestions at that post!

January 27, 2011

Dan Szymborski’s White Sox 2011 ZiPS Projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 27, 2011 10:30 pm
Tags: ,

Szymborski @ BBTF:

It’s not a world-beating team, but the White Sox are my early pick for the AL Central, edging out the Tigers and a little above the Twins. The team’s not headed for a 95-win season, but they are generally solid without a lot of major holes, though they could use another bullpen arm. …

Here are the first 5 hitting projections:

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adam Dunn         L    DH   31   .252 .383 .539 147 497  81 125  24   1  39  98 102 190   1   1  142
Paul Konerko      R    1B   35   .273 .358 .500 133 484  70 132  24   1  28  86  62  92   1   1  126
Carlos Quentin    R    RF   28   .261 .358 .495 128 444  74 116  25   2  25  88  49  79   4   2  125
Alexis Rios       R    CF   30   .273 .321 .440 153 605  84 165  33   4  20  84  40 103  26  10  100
Dallas McPherson  L    DH   30   .226 .310 .487 105 380  51  86  17   2  26  63  44 153   5   2  106
...

and the the first 5 pitching projections:

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
John Danks        L      26     3.82    15    9   32   32   200.3  189   85   21   65  161   117
Jake Peavy        R      30     3.89    10    6   20   20   120.3  110   52   14   40  119   115
Gavin Floyd       R      28     3.95    14    9   30   30   189.3  186   83   20   57  157   113
Mark Buehrle      L      32     4.30    13   10   30   30   190.3  214   91   21   45  103   104
Chris Sale        L      22     4.40    10    8   40   20   143.3  143   70   18   52  130   102
...

I hope and expect Beckham will have a better year than what his projection says!

J.J. Stankevitz looks on the ZiPS projections. BTW, Brett Ballantini sees 93 wins and a division title.

January 2, 2011

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 2, 2011 12:54 pm
Tags: ,

Here’s the extremely early, unset rosters, AL Central projection:

TEAM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox 84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers 84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians 73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals 66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30

One more addition? How about Justin Duchscherer? Or a reliever? Is Will Ohman a good option? Alfredo Aceves? More FA names with 2011 salary projections here.

How about taking a flyer on Lastings Milledge?

December 25, 2010

Diamond Futures’ 2011 White Sox Top 12 prospects

Baseball Numbers @ Diamond Futures:

Grade A

1) Chris Sale, LHP (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 80; Control 60; HRrate 29; Stamina 27)

We believed Chris Sale was the best college arm available in the 2010 draft. His 2010 College Performance score trailed only Texas A&M’s Barrett Loux. So we were as shocked as the White Sox likely were when he was still available at #13. The Sox fast-tracked Sale to the Big Leagues in a relief role, and he only continued to make favorable impressions once arriving—ending the season as the team’s best option at closer. Coming out of the bullpen allowed Sale to consistently throw his fastball in the mid-90s—a few ticks higher than he had worked as a starter. The relief work also allowed him to focus on his slider—the pitch that offered greatest concerns coming into the draft. What the bullpen did not allow him to do was showcase his plus-plus change—the pitch that is the main reason why we believe that he is ideally suited for a starting role.

At a slight 6’6”, we believe Sale could ‘beef-up’ and work in the mid-90s as a front of the rotation starter with a solid three-pitch repertoire. Unfortunately, word out of Chicago is that Sale is likely to once again find himself in the bullpen in 2011. This isn’t a two-pitch Neftali Feliz, that we advocated a bullpen role for. Therein lies the paradox with the White Sox decision to make a run at the Central division in 2011—as it likely means that Sale is the de facto closer vs. working on being a difference maker at the top of the rotation. Still just 21yo, the White Sox are unlikely to harm his development in any significant way, but this is a special arm that should be developed as such.

Hit the link for the other 11 reports.

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