BDD is reviewing PECOTA’s 2011 projections

Doug Thorburn:

The isolated power of Alexei Ramirez has bounced around like a pinball for the last few seasons, and PECOTA mined beneath the career marks and struck gold. The relative hits on Ramirez’s batting average and OBP are less impressive, if only because his career numbers in those categories are more stable. Ramirez did up his walk rate beyond expectations, improving on the biggest deficiency in his offensive game, though he had showed similar patience back in 2009. PECOTA came very close on this hi-beta player, coming within 4 points of OPS and righteously projecting his 2nd-worst performance of the last four years. However, there is no way to measure the deleterious affect that Ramirez may have had on the approach of his aforementioned double-play partner, if only through association by proximity.

Alexei’s stats:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2008	26	CHW	AL	136	509	480	65	139	22	2	21	77	13	9	18	61	.290	.317	.475	.792	103	228	14	3	4	4	3	*468/5	RoY-2
2009	27	CHW	AL	148	606	542	71	150	14	1	15	68	14	5	49	66	.277	.333	.389	.723	86	211	15	1	6	8	3	*6
2010	28	CHW	AL	156	626	585	83	165	29	2	18	70	13	8	27	82	.282	.313	.431	.744	99	252	12	2	7	5	2	*6	SS
2011	29	CHW	AL	158	684	614	81	165	31	2	15	70	7	5	51	84	.269	.328	.399	.727	97	245	19	6	8	5	1	*6/D
4 Seasons				598	2425	2221	300	619	96	7	69	285	47	27	145	293	.279	.323	.421	.745	96	936	60	12	25	22	9
162 Game Avg.				162	657	602	81	168	26	2	19	77	13	7	39	79	.279	.323	.421	.745	96	254	16	3	7	6	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/16/2012.

There’s a review of Gordon Beckham’s projection as well at the link.