White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

February 12, 2010

February 12 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 12, 2010 8:00 pm
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- Sox sign RHP Ben Fritz.

- Playoff Probabilities Simulation – PECOTA Edition.

- Four Reasons Teams Are Staying Away from Jermaine Dye.

February 10, 2010

February 10 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 10, 2010 11:16 am
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- Jermaine Dye is open to playing 1B or LF. Jon Heyman says “he might be the most under-rated player in this market.” If he’s willing to play DH, Kenny should pick him up.

- SABR is offering a free PDF download of its Emerald Guide 2010 (2007-2009 editions too). You don’t need to be a member.

- BDD’s Top Prospects Compilation: Update #15:

Spreadsheet: 2009-2010-Top-Prospect-Lists.xls [202 KB]

- Opening Day (1985 and on) and Year-end (1999 and on) payroll information for all MLB teams from Biz of Baseball. Also some, not all, player salaries for years before 1985.

- BDD on the “dying DH.”

- tRA is tERA now.

- Evaluating the 2009 forecasts.

- Rickwood Field, the Birmingham Barons, and the Black Barons.

- Who needs Orlando Hudson?

- The piranhas are turning into sharks.

February 7, 2010

You’re doing it wrong!

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 7, 2010 1:38 pm
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When even Phil Rogers implores you to get a DH:

The guess here is he can make enough plays to make a difference in 2010. He [Johnny Damon] appears headed to the Tigers, but the White Sox ought to stage an intervention.

Imagine Damon in the Sox leadoff spot and Juan Pierre as the No. 2 hitter — or the other way around. Can a rotating DH including Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and Jayson Nix outproduce Damon? And what would be the harm in having 23-year-old Jordan Danks spend time with Damon? They seem to be the same kind of player.

Dye’s continuing unemployment relates to an unflattering statistical analysis of his outfield skills and his reluctance to accept a role as a DH or extra outfielder (the Cubs pursued him before turning to Xavier Nady).

… Branyan, like Damon, could improve the White Sox’s DH spot. He strikes out a ton but delivers long balls — 43 in 563 at-bats the last two seasons — and the Sox haven’t added power after sliding to sixth in the AL in homers. He could fit on almost any team in a bench role but fits best in the AL, where he would be an instant upgrade for the Indians, Athletics and Rangers.

then you know,

The run projections I calculated with Dye as DH yielded 12-18 runs more than the ones with Kotsay/Jones.

February 6, 2010

Jermaine Dye headed for to an AL club?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 6, 2010 1:04 pm
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Morosi (via MLBTR):

Several baseball executives said Friday that they expect Jermaine Dye to sign with an American League club. That way, his at-bats could be spread among the maximum number of positions: left field, right field, designated hitter and perhaps first base.

But that begs the question: Which AL team? …

February 2, 2010

February 2 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 2, 2010 1:32 pm
Tags: , , , , , , ,

- A sample of Carl’s work for Jim’s book.

- Jim looks back on Jose’s Sox years.

- Jermaine Dye rejected a $3.3 million contract offer from the Cubs. Xavier Nady grabbed that $3.3 million offer afterwards

- Sox’ improved PECOTA projection: 80-82. One more win!

- Another 2010 projection. Sox: 87.9-74.1.

- A.J. Pierzynski is projected to throw out 21.7% of attempted steals in 2010.

- WAR for the MLB draft.

- There are two types of players

February 1, 2010

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 2

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

In Part 1 we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. Let’s see what happens if the Sox sign a DH, say Jermaine Dye. I think Tyler Flowers is a bigger probability, but his projections would be more guesses.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Bill James projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .342 .355
Alex Rios .332 .445
Carlos Quentin .356 .511
Paul Konerko .354 .477
Marc Teahen .336 .422
Gordon Beckham .360 .477
A.J. Pierzynski .323 .419
Alexei Ramirez .339 .431
Jermaine Dye .333 .480

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.116. Runs for 162 games: 828.792.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.257. Runs for 162 games: 851.634.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356. Difference: 18.978 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264. Difference: 20.736 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, CHONE projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .325 .361
Alex Rios .327 .439
Carlos Quentin .358 .494
Paul Konerko .345 .468
Marc Teahen .324 .424
Gordon Beckham .348 .457
A.J. Pierzynski .309 .411
Alexei Ramirez .327 .427
Jermaine Dye .332 .461

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.885. Runs for 162 games: 791.370.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.769. Runs for 162 games: 772.578.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416. Difference: 18.954 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996. Difference: 23.004 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010. Difference: 26.568 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Marcel projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .336 .361
Alex Rios .327 .444
Carlos Quentin .349 .481
Paul Konerko .342 .457
Marc Teahen .330 .410
Gordon Beckham .353 .458
A.J. Pierzynski .317 .409
Alexei Ramirez .328 .425
Jermaine Dye .328 .474

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.883. Runs for 162 games: 791.046.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.013. Runs for 162 games: 812.016.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.776. Runs for 162 games: 773.716.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342. Difference: 19.674 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702. Difference: 17.014 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Fans projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre (108) .337 .356
Alex Rios (71) .329 .462
Carlos Quentin (51) .365 .501
Paul Konerko (52) .347 .462
Marc Teahen (41) .322 .421
Gordon Beckham (67) .361 .458
A.J. Pierzynski (39) .317 .405
Alexei Ramirez (57) .337 .437
Jermaine Dye (41) .339 .475

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.027. Runs for 162 games: 814.374.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.183. Runs for 162 games: 839.946.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.904. Runs for 162 games: 794.448.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744. Difference: 18.630 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022. Difference: 24.924 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556. Difference: 26.892 runs less.

The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)

December 7, 2009

Ozzie Guillen on Carlos Quentin and the rest of his outfield

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 7, 2009 8:12 pm
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Snyder:

The White Sox have done a lot of moving around to improve the defense already this offseason. They’ve said goodbye to Jermaine Dye and will likely be moving Carlos Quentin to right field.

“That’s his natural position,” he said of using Quentin in right. “That’s what I think. He grew up playing right field. He couldn’t play right field for the White Sox because of (Dye). But we’ve got right field and left field. He can play whatever he wants, wherever he feels more comfortable. And we’re waiting to see.”

Guillen was very adamant that Alex Rios will be their everyday center-fielder and said Andruw Jones has no choice but to learn to play left field if he wants to get in the lineup with any sort of frequency. Mark Kotsay — of whom Guillen spoke incredibly highly — is also in the left field mix.

Tyler Flowers the current favorite for the backup catcher position

Gonzales:

Williams said the possibility of rookie Tyler Flowers becoming the primary backup catcher to A.J. Pierzynski becomes a strong consideration each day.

“As we sit right now, he’s probably the leading candidate to be the backup,” Williams said. “… Tyler Flowers is going to hit. And that’s one thing we have to consider.”

Another consideration is that teams are starting to sign catchers, even at eye-opening prices. The New York Mets doubled free agent Henry Blanco’s salary by agreeing to a one-year, $1.5 million contract as a backup catcher.

The Mets have yet to land a starting catcher but are considering free agent Bengie Molina. The Sox had interest in Blanco but could shift their sights on Mike Redmond, a dependable contact hitter who was a member of Florida’s 2003 World Series champion team, in which Guillen served as a coach.

More at the link: Jake Peavy, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Jayson Nix, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Brandon Hynick.

December 1, 2009

Sox won’t offer arbitration to Dye, Dotel, Pods, Castro

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 1, 2009 12:58 pm
Tags: , , ,

Merkin:

The White Sox have decided against offering salary arbitration to their free agents, outfielder Jermaine Dye, right-handed reliever Octavio Dotel, outfielder Scott Podsednik and backup catcher Ramon Castro, a decision needing to be made by 11 p.m. CT on Tuesday. …

Gonzales says Dye is expected to draw interest from Texas, Atlanta and San Francisco, and St. Louis if it won’t retain Matt Holliday.

Cowley says the Yankee$ requested Dye’s medical records.

November 30, 2009

Arbitration deadline is tomorrow night

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 30, 2009 7:35 pm
Tags: ,

Chances are the Sox won’t offer arbitration to Jermaine Dye and Octavio Dotel says  Mark Gonzales:

The landscape is different for the White Sox at this time than it was last winter, when they offered salary arbitration to free agent Orlando Cabrera. They were confident he would decline because of the emergence of Alexei Ramirez and the fact that Cabrera could have been cut and lost the majority of his salary. … It’s extremely rare for a player to take a pay cut in salary arbitration. Dye earned $11.5 million in 2009 and Dotel $6 million. Even if either player accepted salary arbitration and they were later cut in spring training, those players would receive either 30 days’ pay or 45 days’ pay, depending on the date in spring training that they were released. The major league calendar is around 180 days. …

BTW, here’s MLBTR’s Arbitration primer.

November 10, 2009

DH? No way says JD

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 10, 2009 7:37 pm
Tags:

Jermaine Dye at what positions would he play:

“There are a number of teams I’ve heard already that would love to have me. I know one thing, I will not be DHing. You can put that down. If a team wants to try me out at first base on an every day basis I’ll do that. That’s something I feel will be easy to learn. But as far as DHing that’s not for me. Teams shouldn’t call if that’s their plan.”

A lot more on the link.

November 9, 2009

Links, we got links, we got lots and lots of links.

– Mark Buehrle’s perfect game is the theme of an exhibit at the Art Institute.

– The Pods talks are back on. But Kenny won’t sacrifice other needs to fill the leadoff role.

– Dotel and Dye are officially ‘Type A free-agents’. Dotel filed for free-agency.

– Kenny expects the youngsters to contribute.

– Kenny will seek Carlos Quentin’s permission if he wants to move him to Right Field.

– Sox interest in Aroldis Chapman appears lukewarm says van dyck.

– Here’s the Elias free-agent rankings list. BA’s Q&A is here.

– Sox’ odds to win the 2010 World Series: 28-1.

– Phil Rogers wonders if Kenny will go after Roy Halladay.

November 7, 2009

Teahen and $1 million?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 7, 2009 5:03 pm
Tags: , , , , ,

Mark Gonzales:

[Sox GM Kenny] Williams said the trade for Teahen from the Royals for second baseman Chris Getz and infielder Josh Fields, which was reported Thursday, needed approval from the commissioner’s office before an announcement could be made. The Sox also received a reported $1 million from the Royals.

Gonzales, also, says with Dye’s buyout the Sox are expected to look for another outfielder while keeping an eye an their own outfield prospect, Jordan Danks, in the Arizona Fall League.

THT Fantasy on Jermaine Dye

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 7, 2009 5:00 pm
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Sanders:

At 35, Dye is on his last leg as a major league ball player. He hit .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI in 2009. Dye has officially developed his old person skills, with his walk rate 2.9% above his career average and above 11% for the first time in his career. He can still hit homers, so he has some value to fantasy owners.

He may even be able to give you a better average than anyone expects next year. His BABIP was .269, while his xBABIP was .295. His line drive rate was the second lowest of his career (16.9%), but even so, his BABIP will come closer to his .300 career average in 2010. …

November 6, 2009

Sox buy Dye out; looks like Dye is headed elsewhere

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 6, 2009 11:47 am
Tags:

Reifert:

WhiteSox have bought out the 2010 mutual option for OF Jermaine Dye, making him eligible to file for free agency.

Cowley says the cost was $950,000.

Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan (MLB.com) says Dye “is of interest to the Rangers.”

whitesox.com’s Kelly Thesier says it looks like Dye is headed elsewhere:

The White Sox and Dye could negotiate another contract, but it appears likely that he is headed to another team. When Chicago acquired outfielder Alex Rios at the end of August, it appeared as if Dye’s time in the Windy City was going to come to an end. The Rangers have been mentioned as one team that could possibly have interest in the outfielder.

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