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July 21, 2009

Potential Trade Deadline Bargain

Filed under: MLB — The Wizard @ July 21, 2009 9:46 pm

R.J. Anderson:

Cliff Lee’s name is going to be printed way too much in trade rumors over the next week-and-a-half. Meanwhile Cleveland’s other worthwhile starting pitcher is barely being talked about. Yes, it’s Carl Pavano. Yes, he has injury concerns. Yes, his ERA is huge. No, teams shouldn’t shy away from acquiring him for the rest of the season.

There are inherent concerns and risks associated with Pavano like with all other pitchers. Obviously prior injuries seem to plant a giant red flag on Pavano’s shoulder, but the reward could be worth the risk. Pavano’s 5.13 ERA is misleading. His FIP is a crisp 3.59; xFIP is 3.92; tRA is 4.33; and tRA* 4.49 (and remember, tRA is based on the RA scale, not ERA, so when you scale it to ERA those numbers are more like ~3.6-4.2). In words: he’s pitching quite well. …


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