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October 15, 2011

THT’s Jeffrey Gross calculates the xBABIP adjustments to the 2011 batting lines

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 15, 2011 12:00 am
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Jeffrey Gross:

… Turning to the data, let’s first look at the “unluckiest” batters of 2011—those who are most likely to see the sharpest batting average improvements in 2012 (dBABIP greater than .050):

Last Name First Name Team BABIP xBABIP dBABIP
Chone Figgins Mariners 0.215 0.314 0.100
Vernon Wells Angels 0.214 0.298 0.084
Rafael Furcal MULTIPLE 0.240 0.320 0.080
Alex Rios White Sox 0.237 0.299 0.062
Adam Dunn White Sox 0.240 0.299 0.059

As you might expect, a lot of the guys with some of the lowest batting averages in baseball populate this list. Those players, though mostly terrible, were not nearly as terrible as their batting lines from last year indicate. For example, Alex Rios was likely more a .260-.270 than a .227 hitter, and Adam Dunn should have hit closer to .200 than .159. …

Here are the xBABIP data for the White Sox players from the accompanying spreadsheet (batters with positive dBABIPs are “unlucky” while batters with negative dBABIPs are “lucky”):

First Name Last Name Team PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SB IFH% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% BIP HBP P/PA BABIP xBABIP dBABIP
Rios Alex White Sox 570 537 122 85 22 2 13 27 68 4 11 5.0% 18.4% 42.3% 39.3% 12.9% 473 2 3.5 0.237 0.299 0.062
Dunn Adam White Sox 496 415 66 39 16 0 11 75 177 2 0 0.0% 20.0% 32.5% 47.5% 13.2% 240 4 4.4 0.240 0.299 0.059
Morel Brent White Sox 444 413 101 72 18 1 10 22 57 1 5 8.7% 19.2% 49.3% 31.5% 9.1% 349 3 3.6 0.262 0.311 0.049
Pierre Juan White Sox 711 639 178 155 17 4 2 43 41 3 27 7.4% 21.1% 53.0% 25.8% 7.6% 558 7 3.4 0.294 0.325 0.031
Beckham Gordon White Sox 557 499 115 82 23 0 10 35 111 3 5 7.1% 20.3% 39.5% 40.3% 21.0% 390 13 3.8 0.276 0.293 0.017
Pierzynski A.J. White Sox 500 464 133 95 29 1 8 23 33 6 0 1.4% 20.9% 50.6% 28.5% 7.3% 435 5 3.4 0.291 0.308 0.017
Ramirez Alexei White Sox 684 614 165 117 31 2 15 51 84 5 7 7.9% 19.3% 45.5% 35.2% 15.6% 528 6 3.6 0.288 0.301 0.012
Quentin Carlos White Sox 483 421 107 52 31 0 24 34 84 5 1 6.4% 14.3% 32.2% 53.5% 16.9% 342 23 3.7 0.261 0.269 0.008
Konerko Paul White Sox 639 543 163 107 25 0 31 77 89 11 1 0.6% 22.4% 37.0% 40.6% 7.9% 465 8 3.9 0.304 0.301 -0.003

May 9, 2011

BABIP through the last 100 years

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 9, 2011 9:00 pm
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BABIP over the last 100 years (David Pinto):

April only (1957 on):

October 11, 2010

Differences between expected and actual BABIP for the 2010 White Sox

Gross @ THT:

A couple of years ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix did some research on batted-ball data and created a metric called xBABIP (“expected BABIP”). xBABIP dispelled the myth that BABIP was primarily a function of “LD%+ .120.” Rather, as Dutton and Bendix found, BABIP was better explained as a function all batted-ball types and ratios with speed/power/strikeout considerations.

Last year, Derek Carty and Chris Dutton debuted the simple xBABIP calculator on THT. This tool has empowered users to determine a player’s xBABIP and compare it to their actual BABIP. Therefrom, one could forecast a hitter’s expected batting line, assuming all the input ratios were to remain constant. Over the course of 500+ PA, these ratios tend to be significant, though conclusions can still be drawn at the 300 PA threshold (we’d really only be waiting on IFFB% stabilization).

For all 270 hitters who accrued 300 or more plate appearances this season, I applied the xBABIP formula (by park) to determine each hitter’s expected batting lines. In short, what I have created is a spreadsheet of “what you can expect as a baseline for production in 2011, assuming all else remains constant.” In other words, this is how these hitters should have hit in 2010. …

Numbers for the White Sox players from the full spreadsheet:

Player PA xBABIP BABIP Difference
Andruw Jones 328 .310 .239 .071
Juan Pierre 734 .351 .294 .057
Mark Kotsay 359 .298 .247 .051
Carlos Quentin 527 .282 .241 .041
A.J. Pierzynski 503 .299 .278 .021
Alex Rios 617 .322 .306 .016
Alexei Ramirez 626 .311 .300 .011
Gordon Beckham 498 .304 .297 .007
Omar Vizquel 391 .309 .309 0
Paul Konerko 631 .297 .326 -.029

For players that played part of the year with the White Sox I got their BABIP numbers from statcorner. All the numbers are for the time they played for the White Sox:

Player PA xBABIP BABIP Difference
Jayson Nix 57 .262 .189 .073
Manny Ramirez 88 .313 .388 -.075

Mark Teahen had only 262 PAs.

July 10, 2009

Simple xBABIP Calculator

Filed under: MLB — The Wizard @ July 10, 2009 12:14 pm
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Derek Carty:

For those who have been hanging around these parts since this past off-season, you’ll surely be familiar with Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix’s work on creating an expected Batting Average on Balls in Play metric (xBABIP). This was terrific work, which I later examined a little closer to find that xBABIP was indeed a very strong predictor of future performance.

Today, I’d like to announce that I’ll be working with Chris Dutton to develop an even more advanced version of xBABIP. This is something that I’ve been thinking about for quite some time, and when I heard that Peter Bendix had taken a job with the Rays, I thought it made perfect sense to team up with Chris myself. We don’t currently have an estimate for when the new xBABIP will be ready, but hopefully the payoff will be a good one.

To wet your whistles while you wait, Chris has put together a very nice Excel tool for calculating a simplified version of xBABIP. This is almost identical to the version that I tested in my article that I linked to above, which turned out to be quite predictive itself. The tool also does a number of other cool things, so Chris took the liberty of putting together a quick explanation/tutorial for everyone. …

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