Done: White Sox, Royals, Indians
Analysis: Despite being only one game out, I think the Tigers need to be considered a long shot for the playoffs. Their run differential is very small at just +6 and they don’t deserve a record of 6 games over .500. They should finish with at most 85 wins unless they improve dramatically. The Twins are the only team in this division to be taken seriously this year.
PECOTA puts the White Sox playoff chances at less than 1%.
BTB updates the CHONE projections:
I’ll look at the AL first. The tables contain preseason playoff probability (PS P%), current probability to win the division (C DW%), current probability to win the wild card (C WC%), and current playoff probability (C P%).
BP puts the division odds at 16.7%, PECOTA at 4.4% and ELO at 9.8%.
UPDATE: Accuscore puts the division chances at 2.4%.
– Happy Opening Day!
– Uncle Phil says Jake Peavy better show better stuff than 91-92 mph fastballs. Ehh, Peavy always was a 91-92 mph fastball pitcher.
– Erik looks at various 2010 AL Central forecasts.
– The White Sox hired Jerry Krause as a minor league scout. Krause has extensive baseball scouting experience. He was a scout for the Sox in the 70s and 80s.
– White Sox Opening Day payroll: $105,530,000 million. All MLB player salaries.
– Jim looks where recent ex-Sox players are.
– FutureSox: Kannapolis Intimidators season preview. Futuresox: Winston-Salem Dash season preview. al.com: Birmingham Barons season preview.
– Joe Cowley says the Sox need as fast start to put some quarters in Kenny’s pocket.
– Dan Hudson comes in at no. 9 in Phil Rogers’ ROY predictions.
– Could the Sox move their games and anchor a new FM sports radio station in Chicago?
– B-R will get Negro League (1940-1948) and Cuban statistics.
– Sox have won 14 and lost 8 arbitration hearings since 1974 when arbitration began.
– “There is a good chance that [Yuniesky] Maya will choose a team that offers a better opportunity to immediately enter its starting rotation.” (Bradford).
– Gregor’s spring training preview. Whitesox.com spring training previews here, here, and here.
– PECOTA has been updated. Sox projected at 80-82 in a tight AL Central.
Detroit holds a slim lead in the American League Central entering the 2009 intermission, and the White Sox have a brutal second-half schedule that includes 10 games with Detroit, eight games against Boston, seven against the Yankees, six against the Angels and just six apiece against Cleveland and Kansas City. For this competitive but less-than-stellar division, there’s little doubt that the White Sox, Tigers and Twins will be battling down to the season’s last week.
Seems we already have written off the games against the Twinkies.