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July 20, 2011

Adam Dunn’s self diagnosis: too many off-speed pitches early in the count [UPDATE]

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ July 20, 2011 9:30 pm
Tags:

Gonzales @ CT:

Dunn believes his recent struggles stem from being too aggressive and that opposing pitchers are taking advantage by throwing off-speed pitches early in the count.

“And that’s not my game,” Dunn said. “Everything is there except me swinging at bad pitches,” Dunn continued. “I’m working the count, usually putting myself in usually good hitters’ counts but not making them pay.”

Unfortunately for Dunn, I don’t think we can order opposing pitchers what to throw.

UPDATE: As James says don’t trust what Dunn says. Let’s take a look at the pitches thrown at Dunn on 0-0 counts.

Data from the the TexasLeaguers.com Pitch-F/X database:

2011:

Type Count Selection Strike Swing Whiff Foul In Play
FF 158 46.7% 57.6% 29.1% 8.9% 10.1% 10.1%
FT 42 12.4% 64.3% 31.0% 14.3% 11.9% 4.8%
SI 33 9.8% 45.5% 24.2% 0.0% 18.2% 6.1%
SL 32 9.5% 56.3% 21.9% 12.5% 3.1% 6.3%
CH 29 8.6% 65.5% 31.0% 10.3% 6.9% 13.8%
CU 24 7.1% 66.7% 12.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
FC 13 3.8% 46.2% 38.5% 0.0% 38.5% 0.0%
FS 3 0.9% 66.7% 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0%
KN 3 0.9% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FA 1 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

2010:

Type Count Selection Strike Swing Whiff Foul In Play
FF 252 40.4% 56.3% 29.0% 6.3% 14.7% 7.9%
SL 83 13.3% 47.0% 22.9% 9.6% 4.8% 8.4%
CH 72 11.5% 54.2% 37.5% 18.1% 5.6% 13.9%
CU 62 9.9% 54.8% 11.3% 4.8% 4.8% 1.6%
SI 57 9.1% 56.1% 28.1% 12.3% 3.5% 12.3%
FT 53 8.5% 64.2% 35.8% 9.4% 15.1% 11.3%
FC 31 5.0% 61.3% 35.5% 9.7% 9.7% 16.1%
KN 8 1.3% 75.0% 50.0% 12.5% 25.0% 12.5%
FA 5 0.8% 100.0% 60.0% 20.0% 0.0% 40.0%
FS 1 0.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2009:

Type Count Selection Strike Swing Whiff Foul In Play
FF 327 50.1% 55.7% 25.7% 5.2% 11.0% 9.5%
SL 121 18.5% 60.3% 28.1% 9.9% 11.6% 6.6%
CH 75 11.5% 56.0% 30.7% 13.3% 6.7% 10.7%
CU 66 10.1% 53.0% 10.6% 1.5% 7.6% 1.5%
FA 21 3.2% 33.3% 19.0% 0.0% 4.8% 14.3%
FC 16 2.5% 31.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
FT 15 2.3% 60.0% 26.7% 0.0% 26.7% 0.0%
SI 12 1.8% 41.7% 25.0% 8.3% 0.0% 16.7%

2008:

Type Count Selection Strike Swing Whiff Foul In Play
FA 382 61.0% 55.2% 28.5% 4.7% 13.4% 10.5%
CU 85 13.6% 51.8% 16.5% 7.1% 3.5% 5.9%
SL 71 11.3% 56.3% 28.2% 12.7% 8.5% 7.0%
CH 68 10.9% 48.5% 13.2% 4.4% 2.9% 5.9%
FC 7 1.1% 42.9% 28.6% 0.0% 28.6% 0.0%
SI 5 0.8% 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0%
KN 4 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FF 3 0.5% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
FS 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

and

Pitch Types Key
FA Fastball
FF 4-seam Fastball
FT 2-seam Fastball
FC Cut Fastball
FS Split-finger Fastball
FO Forkball
SI Sinker
SL Slider
CU Curveball
KC Knuckle Curve
EP Ephuus
CH Change-up
SC Screwball
KN Knuckleball
UN Unknown

So, the non-4seam fastballs thrown to Dunn were 49.9%-53.1 on 2009, 59.6%-60.4% in 2010 and 53.3%-53.6% in 2011. Seems the pitch classification wasn’t good in 2008.

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2 Comments »

  1. J.J. had a piece awhile back analyzing Dunn’s pitch selection that concluded pretty much the exact opposite of this. I think I trust J.J. more than Dunn….possibly by a lot.

    Comment by JRFegan — July 20, 2011 @ July 20, 2011 9:26 am | Reply


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