I saw on Fangraphs’ Adrian Gonzales article that “B-R has a feature that allows us to adjust a hitter’s offensive production for run environment (runs/game), league (AL or NL), and park,” and I thought why not use the same tool on Adam Dunn? Here are the results (each year is adjusted to that year’s run environment as in the Fangraphs article):
Here are Adam Dunn’s actual stats:
|162 Game Avg.||162||679||557||97||139||30||1||40||98||7||2||111||183||.250||.381||.521||.902||133||118|
And here is a more detailed explanation of how the ‘neutralized batting’ tool works:
What is adjusted?
We adjust all of a player’s seasons from the park and league context of the seasons they played in into either a “neutral” setting (which is 100 park factor with 162-game season, 90% of runs earned, and 715 runs/team), or into a setting selected by the user with a particular year, league (with its runs/game and earned runs percentage) and home team (with its park factor). Originally, this was set at 750 as Bill James had done in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, but this is well over the historical average which is about 715 runs/162 games since 1900. So we’ve adjusted this downward to reflect this lower average run scoring. With the old number most every offensive player improved, while with the new number, half get better and half get worse. We’ve still provided a link to 750 if you like that better.
There is no change of role for a player, so playing time is essentially the same proportion as before, though things like At Bats go up as run scoring increases. This also means that Pedro Martinez will only make 30 starts a season even if you put him in the 1914 AL.
How are batters adjusted?
For each player/season, we have their stats (Including Runs Created–note that for neutralization the basic RC, without baserunning, GIDP, etc., is used as the player’s baseline offensive level. This means that when you translate a player back into a context they actually played the RC numbers listed will be different from those listed under Special Batting for recent players.), and then the number of games their team played, their team’s park factor, the league runs/game and if the DH was used that year. We handle trades in the proportional manner you would expect.
For the new setting we have the park factor, the number of games expected, and the run-scoring level. Games are adjusted proportionally and this creates a multiplier.
Runs created are adjusted using the ratio of park factors, ratio of run scoring, and a ratio determined by whether we are coming or going to a DH league.
As part of this conversion, we assume that a player will get singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, HBP, and SB in the same proportion to overall hits as before, so given our adjusted RC, we can then find a new level of hits for the player. (This requires using the quadratic formula, and you thought you’d never need it.)
The player’s outs remain the same, so the new AB’s is the new Hits plus the old outs.
We then compute new 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SB, and HBP.
We assume Runs and RBI are proportional to the change in RC, and since outs doesn’t change neither will SO or SF.
And that is pretty much it for hitters.