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December 1, 2010

mgl: Does (one-year) UZR tell us exactly what happened?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 1, 2010 12:14 pm
Tags: ,


We’ve discussed this before, and the answer is, “No.” Apparently almost everyone keeps forgetting this or doesn’t know it yet.  It differs from all offensive stats in that regard.  There are two kinds of regressions that one needs to do with UZR in order to make any practical sense of it:

1) Regress to estimate what actually happened from what UZR “thinks” happened.  The UZR “engine” does not do any internal regressions.

2) Regress to estimate a player’s true talent from what actually happened. …

1 Comment »

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