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October 11, 2010

Differences between expected and actual BABIP for the 2010 White Sox

Gross @ THT:

A couple of years ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix did some research on batted-ball data and created a metric called xBABIP (“expected BABIP”). xBABIP dispelled the myth that BABIP was primarily a function of “LD%+ .120.” Rather, as Dutton and Bendix found, BABIP was better explained as a function all batted-ball types and ratios with speed/power/strikeout considerations.

Last year, Derek Carty and Chris Dutton debuted the simple xBABIP calculator on THT. This tool has empowered users to determine a player’s xBABIP and compare it to their actual BABIP. Therefrom, one could forecast a hitter’s expected batting line, assuming all the input ratios were to remain constant. Over the course of 500+ PA, these ratios tend to be significant, though conclusions can still be drawn at the 300 PA threshold (we’d really only be waiting on IFFB% stabilization).

For all 270 hitters who accrued 300 or more plate appearances this season, I applied the xBABIP formula (by park) to determine each hitter’s expected batting lines. In short, what I have created is a spreadsheet of “what you can expect as a baseline for production in 2011, assuming all else remains constant.” In other words, this is how these hitters should have hit in 2010. …

Numbers for the White Sox players from the full spreadsheet:

Player PA xBABIP BABIP Difference
Andruw Jones 328 .310 .239 .071
Juan Pierre 734 .351 .294 .057
Mark Kotsay 359 .298 .247 .051
Carlos Quentin 527 .282 .241 .041
A.J. Pierzynski 503 .299 .278 .021
Alex Rios 617 .322 .306 .016
Alexei Ramirez 626 .311 .300 .011
Gordon Beckham 498 .304 .297 .007
Omar Vizquel 391 .309 .309 0
Paul Konerko 631 .297 .326 -.029

For players that played part of the year with the White Sox I got their BABIP numbers from statcorner. All the numbers are for the time they played for the White Sox:

Player PA xBABIP BABIP Difference
Jayson Nix 57 .262 .189 .073
Manny Ramirez 88 .313 .388 -.075

Mark Teahen had only 262 PAs.

Seattle won’t be hiring Joey Cora for manager?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 11, 2010 6:50 pm
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Padilla @ ESPN:

From early indications, it looks as if Joey Cora will likely be back as bench coach for the Chicago White Sox next season.

According to a major league source, the Seattle Mariners never considered Cora a candidate for their managerial opening and the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t have Ozzie Guillen’s right-hand man on their preliminary list of candidates for their manager opening. …

Cora isn’t in the running for the Florida Marlins manager job either says Padilla.

Another 2011 Mock Draft

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 11, 2010 1:28 pm


23.   IF            Jason Esposito

Esposito (Vanderbilt Jr.) played 3B (his coach says he has the versatility to play SS). Height and Weight are 6-2 and 205.

Esposito’s college stats:

Year avg gp-gs ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi tb slg% bb hbp so gdp ob% sf sh sb-att po a e fld%
.359 66-66 262 65 94 25 1 12 64 157 .599 34 15 35 5 .455 3 5 31-35 49 139 13 .935
.287 64-64 237 39 68 13 1 4 42 95 .401 16 10 48 10 .351 5 4 20-25 36 107 14 .911

Fangraphs says:

The most well-rounded player up the middle is Jason Esposito (.359/.453/.582), who really came into his own in year two under Tim Corbin at Vanderbilt. He’s now patient, with developing gap power and a threat on the bases (career 50-for-59). Maybe a third baseman in the end, but a five-tool one

More scouting reports here.

And some embedded videos: (more…)

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