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June 5, 2010

At what point do statistics become reliable? [sample size]

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ June 5, 2010 8:35 pm
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Sabermetrics Library:

Offense Statistics:

  • 50 PA: Swing%
  • 100 PA: Contact Rate
  • 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
  • 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
  • 250 PA: Fly Ball Rate
  • 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
  • 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
  • 550 PA: ISO

Pitching Statistics:

  • 150 BF – K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
  • 200 BF – flyball rate, GB/FB
  • 500 BF – K/BB, pop up rate
  • 550 BF – BB/PA

In case it’s not obvious, you can tell a lot more about a hitter from one year of data than you can about a pitcher.  All this data is from research that Pizza Cutter conducted, which can be found in the links below.  If a statistic is not included, the means it did not stabilize over the intervals that Pizza Cutter tested (which was up to 750 PA / BF).

PA = Plate Appearance, BF = Batters Faced

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