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February 1, 2010

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 2

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

In Part 1 we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. Let’s see what happens if the Sox sign a DH, say Jermaine Dye. I think Tyler Flowers is a bigger probability, but his projections would be more guesses.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Bill James projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .342 .355
Alex Rios .332 .445
Carlos Quentin .356 .511
Paul Konerko .354 .477
Marc Teahen .336 .422
Gordon Beckham .360 .477
A.J. Pierzynski .323 .419
Alexei Ramirez .339 .431
Jermaine Dye .333 .480

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.116. Runs for 162 games: 828.792.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.257. Runs for 162 games: 851.634.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356. Difference: 18.978 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264. Difference: 20.736 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, CHONE projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .325 .361
Alex Rios .327 .439
Carlos Quentin .358 .494
Paul Konerko .345 .468
Marc Teahen .324 .424
Gordon Beckham .348 .457
A.J. Pierzynski .309 .411
Alexei Ramirez .327 .427
Jermaine Dye .332 .461

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.885. Runs for 162 games: 791.370.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.769. Runs for 162 games: 772.578.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416. Difference: 18.954 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996. Difference: 23.004 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010. Difference: 26.568 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Marcel projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .336 .361
Alex Rios .327 .444
Carlos Quentin .349 .481
Paul Konerko .342 .457
Marc Teahen .330 .410
Gordon Beckham .353 .458
A.J. Pierzynski .317 .409
Alexei Ramirez .328 .425
Jermaine Dye .328 .474

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.883. Runs for 162 games: 791.046.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.013. Runs for 162 games: 812.016.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.776. Runs for 162 games: 773.716.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342. Difference: 19.674 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702. Difference: 17.014 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Fans projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre (108) .337 .356
Alex Rios (71) .329 .462
Carlos Quentin (51) .365 .501
Paul Konerko (52) .347 .462
Marc Teahen (41) .322 .421
Gordon Beckham (67) .361 .458
A.J. Pierzynski (39) .317 .405
Alexei Ramirez (57) .337 .437
Jermaine Dye (41) .339 .475

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.027. Runs for 162 games: 814.374.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.183. Runs for 162 games: 839.946.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.904. Runs for 162 games: 794.448.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744. Difference: 18.630 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022. Difference: 24.924 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556. Difference: 26.892 runs less.

The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)

The Sox $60 million question

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 1, 2010 6:12 pm
Tags:

Golebiewski:

While he was wallowing in mediocrity prior to the waiver claim, Rios face planted upon reaching the South Side. He finished the season with a macabre -0.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. Making the worst first impression possible, Rios has been the subject of much derision.

The knee-jerk reaction is to say, “well, Kenny Williams blew it. Look at all that cash they owe him now.” But is that really the case? Will Rios be an anchor on Chicago’s payroll for years to come? Let’s try to find out. …

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 1

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

What do we get if we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool?

Merkin’s lineup, Bill James projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .342 .355
Alex Rios .332 .445
Carlos Quentin .356 .511
Paul Konerko .354 .477
Marc Teahen .336 .422
Gordon Beckham .360 .477
A.J. Pierzynski .323 .419
Alexei Ramirez .339 .431
Mark Kotsay .326 .378

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264.

Merkin’s lineup, CHONE projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .325 .361
Alex Rios .327 .439
Carlos Quentin .358 .494
Paul Konerko .345 .468
Marc Teahen .324 .424
Gordon Beckham .348 .457
A.J. Pierzynski .309 .411
Alexei Ramirez .327 .427
Mark Kotsay .307 .363

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010.

Merkin’s lineup, Marcel projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .336 .361
Alex Rios .327 .444
Carlos Quentin .349 .481
Paul Konerko .342 .457
Marc Teahen .330 .410
Gordon Beckham .353 .458
A.J. Pierzynski .317 .409
Alexei Ramirez .328 .425
Mark Kotsay .318 .386

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702.

Merkin’s lineup, Fans projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre (108) .337 .356
Alex Rios (71) .329 .462
Carlos Quentin (51) .365 .501
Paul Konerko (52) .347 .462
Marc Teahen (41) .322 .421
Gordon Beckham (67) .361 .458
A.J. Pierzynski (39) .317 .405
Alexei Ramirez (57) .337 .437
Mark Kotsay (15) .316 .371

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556.

Different lineups will be tested in other posts. The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)

Sox sign OF Brady Clark

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 1, 2010 11:48 am
Tags:

MLBTR:

The White Sox added Brady Clark, who once scored 94 runs as a member of the ’05 Brewers.  It was the Brewers’ December ’04 Scott Podsednik-Carlos Lee trade with the Sox that gave Clark a starting opportunity in ’05.

Stats: B-R.

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