White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

April 5, 2012

2012 WAR projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 5, 2012 11:55 pm
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David Pinto:

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player WAR: 29.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 17.7
  • Closer WAR: 1.0
  • Total WAR: 48.1

Cleveland Indians

  • Position Player WAR: 18.1
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 13.1
  • Closer WAR: 1.5
  • Total WAR: 32.7

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 10.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 14.6
  • Closer WAR: 1.6
  • Total WAR: 26.6

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player WAR: 17.7
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.5
  • Closer WAR: -0.3
  • Total WAR: 22.9

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
  • Closer WAR: -0.4
  • Total WAR: 21.6

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
  • Closer WAR: -0.4
  • Total WAR: 21.6

Hopefully we have some offensive rebounds and the position players WAR number is higher.

March 25, 2012

Did Alexei Ramirez bulk up?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 25, 2012 11:30 pm
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BTW, Scott Merkin has a cool article about how much grateful Alexei is for Jose Contreras’ influence on him on and off the diamond.

Other White Sox links:

And BTB’s Lewie Pollis updates the ‘The Simple WAR calculator’ to version 2.0.

August 20, 2011

Kenny Williams is angry

Merkin @ CWS:

“Go get the inspirational speeches from someone else. I’m [angry],” Williams told MLB.com, responding to a question concerning the White Sox chances to claim an American League Central over the final 40 games. “This team should be 10 games over .500 right now.

“That’s the bad news. The good news is we still have time to right the ship. But if you are looking for inspiration, or anyone is, or pats on the back from this recent surge, you are looking at the wrong person. I’ll give you a pat on the back if you end up in first place.”

Williams said that anything short of winning the division would be an obvious disappointment, adding that winning the division really isn’t even good enough in the White Sox championship-oriented minds. He acknowledged, as an example, being impressed by Alejandro De Aza’s play since called up to the big league club, as the outfielder is batting .310 and infusing life into the White Sox lineup.

But he added that he’ll be more impressed if De Aza keeps it up.

“Nothing is going to impress me the rest of the year unless we are in first place at the end,” Williams said. “Other than that, it’s just find a way to win today.”

Other White Sox links:

March 31, 2011

A WAR-based look to this year’s White Sox-Twins battle

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 31, 2011 9:20 pm
Tags:

Ballantini @ CSN:

So, how weakened are the Twins, and is the retooled White Sox offense and bullpen enough to make up the six games the team trailed Minnesota by in 2010? What follows is by no means a definitive outlook, but an educated projection, position by position, on how the two clubs stack up. (Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is the standardized figure I’m using to compare players and teams.) …

November 7, 2010

2010 White Sox team profit

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 7, 2010 8:43 pm
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Ballantini @ CSN:

So, how did Williams do as Chicago’s general manager in 2010? This analysis draws upon the player season values at FanGraphs (where they basically assign a value to player’s WAR, with one win above replacement equating to $4 million) to see if the White Sox got their money’s worth from each player on the roster.

Positional totals come from the player’s FanGraphs value subtracted by season salary, and numbers below are expressed in millions. ..

•    The White Sox finished second in the AL Central with a 88-74 record and a team payroll $103.1 million. Profit: $62.8 million

•    The AL Central champion Minnesota Twins were 94-68 with a team payroll of $97.7 million. Profit: $106.4 million …

September 4, 2010

Chronicling Don Cooper’s successes

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ September 4, 2010 7:41 pm
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Ballantini @ CSN:

Most markedly, Cooper’s suggestion to Jackson that he apply the “Jose Contreras Treatment”—i.e., a more erect posture in his delivery—has worked wonders. (It’s neither a surprise that Cooper spotted the flaw immediately upon viewing tape of Jackson nor that he was hopping exciting to get the flamethrower in trade.)

Jackson brought a 5.16 ERA with him from the Arizona Diamondbacks and has offered up a clean 1.47 ERA so far with the White Sox, along with reducing his H/9 a full two, from 9.4 in Arizona to 7.4. He’s also cut his walks in half (4.0 BB/9 to 2.0 BB/9) while increasing his strikeouts by four (11.0 K/9 in Chicago vs. just 7.0 K/9 in Arizona). Those factors have combined to have increased Jackson’s K/BB by 200%, from 1.73 with the Diamondbacks to 5.63 with the White Sox.

… Let’s take a look at some other famous Cooper turnaround efforts, beginning with the two players the pitching coach himself was quickest to cite:

July 25, 2010

Kenny Williams 10 best and 5 worst trades ranked by WAR

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ July 25, 2010 7:17 pm
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Ballantini:

1. White Sox trade Brandon McCarthy to the Texas Rangers for John Danks and Nick Masset

Dec. 23, 2006; +13.9 WAR

McCarthy’s fleeting discipline already had disappointed the White Sox, but to have turned him into Danks (15.6 WAR and rising). Masset and McCarthy is a wash, so in essence Danks’s 41 wins, four seasons, and sub-4.00 ERA arrived in Chicago for free.

More at the link.

May 26, 2010

Fangraphs can haz WAR comparison

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 26, 2010 12:25 pm
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Appelman:

The other new feature are the WAR graphs where you can compare up to 4 players at a time in various ways:

May 25, 2010

Highest hitting WAR to End a Career

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 25, 2010 10:12 pm
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B-R blog:

Here is a look at the players with the best final seasons since 1901.

Rk Player WAR/pos Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Shoeless Joe Jackson 7.4 1920 30 CHW AL 146 649 570 105 218 42 20 12 121 56 0 14 7 16 0 0 9 12 .382 .444 .589 1.033 *7
2 Happy Felsch 4.9 1920 28 CHW AL 142 613 556 88 188 40 15 14 115 37 0 25 4 16 0 0 8 13 .338 .384 .540 .923 *8
3 Jackie Robinson 4.6 1956 37 BRO NL 117 431 357 61 98 15 2 10 43 60 2 32 3 9 2 9 12 5 .275 .382 .412 .793 *54/37

May 17, 2010

B-R can haz WAR

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 17, 2010 2:58 pm
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B-R:

Sabermetricians have always been on the search for the best way to measure wins contributed by players. Baseball Prospectus has WARP, Bill James has win shares and now we are presenting Sean Smith’s Wins Above Replacement or WAR data on the site. …

April 15, 2010

White Sox franchise breakdown by WAR and its components

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 15, 2010 2:13 pm
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Cool stuff. All time team:

  • Catcher: Carlton Fisk (29.6 WAR, 3.8 WAR/700)
  • First Base: Frank Thomas (70.6 WAR, 5.8 WAR/700)
  • Second Base: Eddie Collins (66.0 WAR, 6.5 WAR/700)
  • Third Base: Robin Ventura (38.8 WAR, 5.2 WAR/700)
  • Shortstop: Luke Appling (69.3 WAR, 4.8 WAR/700)
  • Outfield: Joe Jackson (28.4 WAR, 7.3 WAR/700)
  • Outfield: Minnie Minoso (42.7 WAR, 5.1 WAR/700)
  • Outfield: Fielder Jones (35.1 WAR, 5.0 WAR/700)
  • Starting Pitcher: Ed Walsh (55.0 WAR, 3.7 WAR/200)
  • Starting Pitcher: Ted Lyons (58.8 WAR, 2.8 WAR/200)
  • Starting Pitcher: Red Faber (55.2 WAR, 2.7 WAR/200)
  • Starting Pitcher: Mark Buehrle (39.4 WAR, 3.8 WAR/200)
  • Relief Pitcher: Keith Foulke (13.9 WAR, 6.2 WAR/200)
  • Relief Pitcher: Roberto Hernandez (11.7 WAR, 5.8 WAR/200)

January 16, 2010

Updated Sox 2010 CHONE projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 16, 2010 10:36 pm
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First the hitters in Merkin’s projected lineup:

Player Pos Age G AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP PA AVG OBP SLG R150 Def
Pierre, Juan CF 32 140 504 66 141 23 6 2 34 34 12 28 38 6 538 0.280 0.325 0.361 -12 -1
Rios, Alexis OF 29 146 567 80 153 34 4 18 75 20 6 43 100 5 615 0.270 0.327 0.439 2 -1
Quentin, Carlos OF 27 123 415 70 110 24 1 23 76 3 2 43 66 17 475 0.265 0.358 0.494 19 -2
Konerko, Paul 1B 34 141 517 70 135 27 1 26 81 1 0 59 93 7 583 0.261 0.345 0.468 11 0
Teahen, Mark 3B 28 144 536 72 141 30 4 16 65 7 3 44 126 4 584 0.263 0.324 0.424 -2 -7
Beckham, Gordon 3B 23 148 530 79 146 38 2 18 80 8 6 53 92 6 589 0.275 0.348 0.457 11 3
Pierzynski, A.J. C 33 133 494 56 136 26 1 13 53 1 1 19 63 5 518 0.275 0.309 0.411 -8 -4
Kotsay, Mark 1B 34 102 366 37 93 20 1 6 42 3 2 27 45 1 394 0.254 0.307 0.363 -16 -2
Ramirez, Alexei SS 28 147 527 69 146 24 2 17 73 11 7 37 68 2 566 0.277 0.327 0.427 1 -2

Pierre seems like a big hole. We have

Botts, Jason OF 30 107 343 50 82 20 1 13 49 1 1 54 111 3 400 0.239 0.348 0.417 5 0

Kotsay seems like another hole. We could use a real DH:

Thome, Jim DH 39 123 412 64 96 17 0 23 69 0 0 72 131 3 487 0.233 0.351 0.442 11 0

The current starting pitchers (both Garcia and Hudson):

Player Age G GS Won Lost IP Hits BB SO HR HB Runs ER ERA R vs Rep
Mark Buehrle 31 30 30 11 11 192 210 47 105 22 5 96 88 4.12 38
Gavin Floyd 27 30 30 10 11 185 187 61 145 25 6 97 89 4.33 35
John Danks 25 29 29 9 10 169 170 59 133 22 4 87 80 4.26 35
Jake Peavy 29 24 24 8 8 145 139 49 130 16 4 69 63 3.91 35
Daniel Hudson 23 20 20 5 7 106 109 44 88 15 7 62 57 4.84 14
Freddy Garcia 35 12 12 3 4 63 69 21 42 9 2 35 32 4.57 10

and the top 6 bullpen candidates:

Player Age G GS Won Lost IP Hits BB SO HR HB Runs ER ERA R vs Rep
Matt Thornton 33 64 0 4 3 59 51 21 63 5 2 24 22 3.36 11
Bobby Jenks 29 53 0 3 2 52 46 15 40 5 1 21 19 3.29 9
Carlos Torres 27 57 0 4 4 65 61 31 56 7 3 33 30 4.15 6
Tony Pena 28 67 0 4 4 69 70 21 47 7 3 34 31 4.04 6
J.J. Putz 33 39 0 2 2 37 35 17 31 4 1 19 17 4.14 4
Scott Linebrink 33 53 0 3 3 52 52 19 42 8 2 28 26 4.50 2

August 11, 2009

Tango calculates Alex Rios’ WAR

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ August 11, 2009 12:42 pm
Tags: ,

Tango:

Hitting: 1 win per 162 above average?
Running: +0.5 wins above average?
Fielding+Position: +0.5 wins above average?
Repl: +2.5
Playing Time: 85%?

WAR = .85 (+1.0 +0.5 +0.5 +2.5) = 3.8

BTW, Tango’s #1.

July 12, 2009

Eddie Collins

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ July 12, 2009 11:46 am
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#10 on the All-Time Position Player WAR list

a comment from Tango though:

Since I’m not a fan of merging lists that are just loosely related, and then presenting them as something seemingly unified, I’ll refer to these Wins Above Replacement (WAR) lists as WApR (Wins Above peer-Replacements).

July 6, 2009

WAR updated all the way back to 1871

Filed under: Chicago White Sox,MLB — The Wizard @ July 6, 2009 11:45 am
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Chone “Rally” Smith:

And finally, the numbers go all the way back to 1871 for hitters and 1876 for pitchers. Some of the estimates used to fill these stats in, like the baserunning regression formula or the JAARF fielding numbers, are not to be trusted as anything more than a reasonable guess. Catcher defensive ratings are based on passed balls and errors only. It is not worth it to even try to estimate performance against the running game by catcher assists. Mike Piazza had about as many assists per game as Johnny Bench. Enough said.

Here’s the WAR database.

And here’s Shoeless Joe Jackson. And Eddie Collins. And Luke Appling.

And Red Faber. And Ed Walsh. And Ted Lyons. And Eddie Cicotte. And Billy Pierce.

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