2012 WAR projections

David Pinto:

Detroit Tigers

• Position Player WAR: 29.4
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 17.7
• Closer WAR: 1.0
• Total WAR: 48.1

Cleveland Indians

• Position Player WAR: 18.1
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 13.1
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 32.7

Chicago White Sox

• Position Player WAR: 10.4
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 14.6
• Closer WAR: 1.6
• Total WAR: 26.6

Kansas City Royals

• Position Player WAR: 17.7
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.5
• Closer WAR: -0.3
• Total WAR: 22.9

Minnesota Twins

• Position Player WAR: 13.3
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
• Closer WAR: -0.4
• Total WAR: 21.6

Minnesota Twins

• Position Player WAR: 13.3
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
• Closer WAR: -0.4
• Total WAR: 21.6

Hopefully we have some offensive rebounds and the position players WAR number is higher.

Did Alexei Ramirez bulk up?

BTW, Scott Merkin has a cool article about how much grateful Alexei is for Jose Contreras’ influence on him on and off the diamond.

Other White Sox links:

• J.J. says Chris Sale’s change-up is the key to his potential success, updates us at the closer competition, and with Tony Andracki post the 1960-69 All-Chicago team.
• James looks at the closer competition too, previews the starting rotation, and writes about Buddy Bell’s conference call.
• THT’s Jeff Moore looks at the Sox’ farm system.

And BTB’s Lewie Pollis updates the ‘The Simple WAR calculator’ to version 2.0.

Kenny Williams is angry

Merkin @ CWS:

“Go get the inspirational speeches from someone else. I’m [angry],” Williams told MLB.com, responding to a question concerning the White Sox chances to claim an American League Central over the final 40 games. “This team should be 10 games over .500 right now.

“That’s the bad news. The good news is we still have time to right the ship. But if you are looking for inspiration, or anyone is, or pats on the back from this recent surge, you are looking at the wrong person. I’ll give you a pat on the back if you end up in first place.”

Williams said that anything short of winning the division would be an obvious disappointment, adding that winning the division really isn’t even good enough in the White Sox championship-oriented minds. He acknowledged, as an example, being impressed by Alejandro De Aza’s play since called up to the big league club, as the outfielder is batting .310 and infusing life into the White Sox lineup.

But he added that he’ll be more impressed if De Aza keeps it up.

“Nothing is going to impress me the rest of the year unless we are in first place at the end,” Williams said. “Other than that, it’s just find a way to win today.”

Other White Sox links:

• James takes a look at Gordon Beckham’s struggles, and Zach Stewart’s, brief, move to the bullpen.
• J.J. says the Sox may not see much, if any, dropoff with Tyler Flowers taking over the catcher’s job and that Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn should be at the top of the list Cubs GM candidates. Fangraphs agrees.
• colin takes a look at Zach Stewart and Mike takes a look at Brent Morel.
• Satchel Price at BTB says the Sox should be spending more at the draft. Baseball America crunched the numbers and the Sox spent the least in the draft in 2011 but the 2007-2011 period as well.
• Chuck Garfien tells us about Jim Thome’s late mother Joyce and Brett Ballantini update his Sox player values calculations.

A WAR-based look to this year’s White Sox-Twins battle

Ballantini @ CSN:

So, how weakened are the Twins, and is the retooled White Sox offense and bullpen enough to make up the six games the team trailed Minnesota by in 2010? What follows is by no means a definitive outlook, but an educated projection, position by position, on how the two clubs stack up. (Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is the standardized figure I’m using to compare players and teams.) …

2010 White Sox team profit

Ballantini @ CSN:

So, how did Williams do as Chicago’s general manager in 2010? This analysis draws upon the player season values at FanGraphs (where they basically assign a value to player’s WAR, with one win above replacement equating to $4 million) to see if the White Sox got their money’s worth from each player on the roster.

Positional totals come from the player’s FanGraphs value subtracted by season salary, and numbers below are expressed in millions. ..

•    The White Sox finished second in the AL Central with a 88-74 record and a team payroll $103.1 million. Profit: $62.8 million

•    The AL Central champion Minnesota Twins were 94-68 with a team payroll of $97.7 million. Profit: $106.4 million …

Chronicling Don Cooper’s successes

Ballantini @ CSN:

Most markedly, Cooper’s suggestion to Jackson that he apply the “Jose Contreras Treatment”—i.e., a more erect posture in his delivery—has worked wonders. (It’s neither a surprise that Cooper spotted the flaw immediately upon viewing tape of Jackson nor that he was hopping exciting to get the flamethrower in trade.)

Jackson brought a 5.16 ERA with him from the Arizona Diamondbacks and has offered up a clean 1.47 ERA so far with the White Sox, along with reducing his H/9 a full two, from 9.4 in Arizona to 7.4. He’s also cut his walks in half (4.0 BB/9 to 2.0 BB/9) while increasing his strikeouts by four (11.0 K/9 in Chicago vs. just 7.0 K/9 in Arizona). Those factors have combined to have increased Jackson’s K/BB by 200%, from 1.73 with the Diamondbacks to 5.63 with the White Sox.

… Let’s take a look at some other famous Cooper turnaround efforts, beginning with the two players the pitching coach himself was quickest to cite:

Kenny Williams 10 best and 5 worst trades ranked by WAR

Ballantini:

1. White Sox trade Brandon McCarthy to the Texas Rangers for John Danks and Nick Masset

Dec. 23, 2006; +13.9 WAR

McCarthy’s fleeting discipline already had disappointed the White Sox, but to have turned him into Danks (15.6 WAR and rising). Masset and McCarthy is a wash, so in essence Danks’s 41 wins, four seasons, and sub-4.00 ERA arrived in Chicago for free.

More at the link.

Fangraphs can haz WAR comparison

Appelman:

The other new feature are the WAR graphs where you can compare up to 4 players at a time in various ways:

Highest hitting WAR to End a Career

B-R blog:

Here is a look at the players with the best final seasons since 1901.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Shoeless Joe Jackson	7.4	1920	30	CHW	AL	146	649	570	105	218	42	20	12	121	56	0	14	7	16	0	0	9	12	.382	.444	.589	1.033	*7
2	Happy Felsch	4.9	1920	28	CHW	AL	142	613	556	88	188	40	15	14	115	37	0	25	4	16	0	0	8	13	.338	.384	.540	.923	*8
3	Jackie Robinson	4.6	1956	37	BRO	NL	117	431	357	61	98	15	2	10	43	60	2	32	3	9	2	9	12	5	.275	.382	.412	.793	*54/37

…

B-R can haz WAR

B-R:

Sabermetricians have always been on the search for the best way to measure wins contributed by players. Baseball Prospectus has WARP, Bill James has win shares and now we are presenting Sean Smith’s Wins Above Replacement or WAR data on the site. …

White Sox franchise breakdown by WAR and its components

Cool stuff. All time team:

• Catcher: Carlton Fisk (29.6 WAR, 3.8 WAR/700)
• First Base: Frank Thomas (70.6 WAR, 5.8 WAR/700)
• Second Base: Eddie Collins (66.0 WAR, 6.5 WAR/700)
• Third Base: Robin Ventura (38.8 WAR, 5.2 WAR/700)
• Shortstop: Luke Appling (69.3 WAR, 4.8 WAR/700)
• Outfield: Joe Jackson (28.4 WAR, 7.3 WAR/700)
• Outfield: Minnie Minoso (42.7 WAR, 5.1 WAR/700)
• Outfield: Fielder Jones (35.1 WAR, 5.0 WAR/700)
• Starting Pitcher: Ed Walsh (55.0 WAR, 3.7 WAR/200)
• Starting Pitcher: Ted Lyons (58.8 WAR, 2.8 WAR/200)
• Starting Pitcher: Red Faber (55.2 WAR, 2.7 WAR/200)
• Starting Pitcher: Mark Buehrle (39.4 WAR, 3.8 WAR/200)
• Relief Pitcher: Keith Foulke (13.9 WAR, 6.2 WAR/200)
• Relief Pitcher: Roberto Hernandez (11.7 WAR, 5.8 WAR/200)

Updated Sox 2010 CHONE projections

First the hitters in Merkin’s projected lineup:

Player	Pos	Age	G	AB	R	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	R150	Def
Pierre, Juan	CF	32	140	504	66	141	23	6	2	34	34	12	28	38	6	538	0.280	0.325	0.361	-12	-1
Rios, Alexis	OF	29	146	567	80	153	34	4	18	75	20	6	43	100	5	615	0.270	0.327	0.439	2	-1
Quentin, Carlos	OF	27	123	415	70	110	24	1	23	76	3	2	43	66	17	475	0.265	0.358	0.494	19	-2
Konerko, Paul	1B	34	141	517	70	135	27	1	26	81	1	0	59	93	7	583	0.261	0.345	0.468	11	0
Teahen, Mark	3B	28	144	536	72	141	30	4	16	65	7	3	44	126	4	584	0.263	0.324	0.424	-2	-7
Beckham, Gordon	3B	23	148	530	79	146	38	2	18	80	8	6	53	92	6	589	0.275	0.348	0.457	11	3
Pierzynski, A.J.	C	33	133	494	56	136	26	1	13	53	1	1	19	63	5	518	0.275	0.309	0.411	-8	-4
Kotsay, Mark	1B	34	102	366	37	93	20	1	6	42	3	2	27	45	1	394	0.254	0.307	0.363	-16	-2
Ramirez, Alexei	SS	28	147	527	69	146	24	2	17	73	11	7	37	68	2	566	0.277	0.327	0.427	1	-2

Pierre seems like a big hole. We have

Botts, Jason

OF

30

107

343

50

82

20

1

13

49

1

1

54

111

3

400

0.239

0.348

0.417

5

0

Kotsay seems like another hole. We could use a real DH:

Thome, Jim

DH

39

123

412

64

96

17

0

23

69

0

0

72

131

3

487

0.233

0.351

0.442

11

0

The current starting pitchers (both Garcia and Hudson):

Player	Age	G	GS	Won	Lost	IP	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	R vs Rep
Mark Buehrle	31	30	30	11	11	192	210	47	105	22	5	96	88	4.12	38
Gavin Floyd	27	30	30	10	11	185	187	61	145	25	6	97	89	4.33	35
John Danks	25	29	29	9	10	169	170	59	133	22	4	87	80	4.26	35
Jake Peavy	29	24	24	8	8	145	139	49	130	16	4	69	63	3.91	35
Daniel Hudson	23	20	20	5	7	106	109	44	88	15	7	62	57	4.84	14
Freddy Garcia	35	12	12	3	4	63	69	21	42	9	2	35	32	4.57	10

and the top 6 bullpen candidates:

Player	Age	G	GS	Won	Lost	IP	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	R vs Rep
Matt Thornton	33	64	0	4	3	59	51	21	63	5	2	24	22	3.36	11
Bobby Jenks	29	53	0	3	2	52	46	15	40	5	1	21	19	3.29	9
Carlos Torres	27	57	0	4	4	65	61	31	56	7	3	33	30	4.15	6
Tony Pena	28	67	0	4	4	69	70	21	47	7	3	34	31	4.04	6
J.J. Putz	33	39	0	2	2	37	35	17	31	4	1	19	17	4.14	4
Scott Linebrink	33	53	0	3	3	52	52	19	42	8	2	28	26	4.50	2

Tango calculates Alex Rios’ WAR

Tango:

Hitting: 1 win per 162 above average?
Running: +0.5 wins above average?
Fielding+Position: +0.5 wins above average?
Repl: +2.5
Playing Time: 85%?

WAR = .85 (+1.0 +0.5 +0.5 +2.5) = 3.8

BTW, Tango’s #1.

Eddie Collins

#10 on the All-Time Position Player WAR list

a comment from Tango though:

Since I’m not a fan of merging lists that are just loosely related, and then presenting them as something seemingly unified, I’ll refer to these Wins Above Replacement (WAR) lists as WApR (Wins Above peer-Replacements).

WAR updated all the way back to 1871

Chone “Rally” Smith:

And finally, the numbers go all the way back to 1871 for hitters and 1876 for pitchers. Some of the estimates used to fill these stats in, like the baserunning regression formula or the JAARF fielding numbers, are not to be trusted as anything more than a reasonable guess. Catcher defensive ratings are based on passed balls and errors only. It is not worth it to even try to estimate performance against the running game by catcher assists. Mike Piazza had about as many assists per game as Johnny Bench. Enough said.

Here’s the WAR database.

And here’s Shoeless Joe Jackson. And Eddie Collins. And Luke Appling.

And Red Faber. And Ed Walsh. And Ted Lyons. And Eddie Cicotte. And Billy Pierce.