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February 2, 2010

February 2 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 2, 2010 1:32 pm
Tags: , , , , , , ,

- A sample of Carl’s work for Jim’s book.

- Jim looks back on Jose’s Sox years.

- Jermaine Dye rejected a $3.3 million contract offer from the Cubs. Xavier Nady grabbed that $3.3 million offer afterwards

- Sox’ improved PECOTA projection: 80-82. One more win!

- Another 2010 projection. Sox: 87.9-74.1.

- A.J. Pierzynski is projected to throw out 21.7% of attempted steals in 2010.

- WAR for the MLB draft.

- There are two types of players

February 1, 2010

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 2

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

In Part 1 we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. Let’s see what happens if the Sox sign a DH, say Jermaine Dye. I think Tyler Flowers is a bigger probability, but his projections would be more guesses.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Bill James projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .342 .355
Alex Rios .332 .445
Carlos Quentin .356 .511
Paul Konerko .354 .477
Marc Teahen .336 .422
Gordon Beckham .360 .477
A.J. Pierzynski .323 .419
Alexei Ramirez .339 .431
Jermaine Dye .333 .480

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.116. Runs for 162 games: 828.792.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.257. Runs for 162 games: 851.634.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356. Difference: 18.978 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264. Difference: 20.736 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, CHONE projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .325 .361
Alex Rios .327 .439
Carlos Quentin .358 .494
Paul Konerko .345 .468
Marc Teahen .324 .424
Gordon Beckham .348 .457
A.J. Pierzynski .309 .411
Alexei Ramirez .327 .427
Jermaine Dye .332 .461

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.885. Runs for 162 games: 791.370.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.769. Runs for 162 games: 772.578.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416. Difference: 18.954 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996. Difference: 23.004 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010. Difference: 26.568 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Marcel projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .336 .361
Alex Rios .327 .444
Carlos Quentin .349 .481
Paul Konerko .342 .457
Marc Teahen .330 .410
Gordon Beckham .353 .458
A.J. Pierzynski .317 .409
Alexei Ramirez .328 .425
Jermaine Dye .328 .474

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.883. Runs for 162 games: 791.046.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.013. Runs for 162 games: 812.016.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.776. Runs for 162 games: 773.716.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342. Difference: 19.674 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702. Difference: 17.014 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Fans projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre (108) .337 .356
Alex Rios (71) .329 .462
Carlos Quentin (51) .365 .501
Paul Konerko (52) .347 .462
Marc Teahen (41) .322 .421
Gordon Beckham (67) .361 .458
A.J. Pierzynski (39) .317 .405
Alexei Ramirez (57) .337 .437
Jermaine Dye (41) .339 .475

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.027. Runs for 162 games: 814.374.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.183. Runs for 162 games: 839.946.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.904. Runs for 162 games: 794.448.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744. Difference: 18.630 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022. Difference: 24.924 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556. Difference: 26.892 runs less.

The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 1

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

What do we get if we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool?

Merkin’s lineup, Bill James projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .342 .355
Alex Rios .332 .445
Carlos Quentin .356 .511
Paul Konerko .354 .477
Marc Teahen .336 .422
Gordon Beckham .360 .477
A.J. Pierzynski .323 .419
Alexei Ramirez .339 .431
Mark Kotsay .326 .378

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264.

Merkin’s lineup, CHONE projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .325 .361
Alex Rios .327 .439
Carlos Quentin .358 .494
Paul Konerko .345 .468
Marc Teahen .324 .424
Gordon Beckham .348 .457
A.J. Pierzynski .309 .411
Alexei Ramirez .327 .427
Mark Kotsay .307 .363

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010.

Merkin’s lineup, Marcel projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre .336 .361
Alex Rios .327 .444
Carlos Quentin .349 .481
Paul Konerko .342 .457
Marc Teahen .330 .410
Gordon Beckham .353 .458
A.J. Pierzynski .317 .409
Alexei Ramirez .328 .425
Mark Kotsay .318 .386

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702.

Merkin’s lineup, Fans projections
Player OBP SLG
Juan Pierre (108) .337 .356
Alex Rios (71) .329 .462
Carlos Quentin (51) .365 .501
Paul Konerko (52) .347 .462
Marc Teahen (41) .322 .421
Gordon Beckham (67) .361 .458
A.J. Pierzynski (39) .317 .405
Alexei Ramirez (57) .337 .437
Mark Kotsay (15) .316 .371

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556.

Different lineups will be tested in other posts. The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)

January 16, 2010

Updated Sox 2010 CHONE projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 16, 2010 10:36 pm
Tags: ,

First the hitters in Merkin’s projected lineup:

Player Pos Age G AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP PA AVG OBP SLG R150 Def
Pierre, Juan CF 32 140 504 66 141 23 6 2 34 34 12 28 38 6 538 0.280 0.325 0.361 -12 -1
Rios, Alexis OF 29 146 567 80 153 34 4 18 75 20 6 43 100 5 615 0.270 0.327 0.439 2 -1
Quentin, Carlos OF 27 123 415 70 110 24 1 23 76 3 2 43 66 17 475 0.265 0.358 0.494 19 -2
Konerko, Paul 1B 34 141 517 70 135 27 1 26 81 1 0 59 93 7 583 0.261 0.345 0.468 11 0
Teahen, Mark 3B 28 144 536 72 141 30 4 16 65 7 3 44 126 4 584 0.263 0.324 0.424 -2 -7
Beckham, Gordon 3B 23 148 530 79 146 38 2 18 80 8 6 53 92 6 589 0.275 0.348 0.457 11 3
Pierzynski, A.J. C 33 133 494 56 136 26 1 13 53 1 1 19 63 5 518 0.275 0.309 0.411 -8 -4
Kotsay, Mark 1B 34 102 366 37 93 20 1 6 42 3 2 27 45 1 394 0.254 0.307 0.363 -16 -2
Ramirez, Alexei SS 28 147 527 69 146 24 2 17 73 11 7 37 68 2 566 0.277 0.327 0.427 1 -2

Pierre seems like a big hole. We have

Botts, Jason OF 30 107 343 50 82 20 1 13 49 1 1 54 111 3 400 0.239 0.348 0.417 5 0

Kotsay seems like another hole. We could use a real DH:

Thome, Jim DH 39 123 412 64 96 17 0 23 69 0 0 72 131 3 487 0.233 0.351 0.442 11 0

The current starting pitchers (both Garcia and Hudson):

Player Age G GS Won Lost IP Hits BB SO HR HB Runs ER ERA R vs Rep
Mark Buehrle 31 30 30 11 11 192 210 47 105 22 5 96 88 4.12 38
Gavin Floyd 27 30 30 10 11 185 187 61 145 25 6 97 89 4.33 35
John Danks 25 29 29 9 10 169 170 59 133 22 4 87 80 4.26 35
Jake Peavy 29 24 24 8 8 145 139 49 130 16 4 69 63 3.91 35
Daniel Hudson 23 20 20 5 7 106 109 44 88 15 7 62 57 4.84 14
Freddy Garcia 35 12 12 3 4 63 69 21 42 9 2 35 32 4.57 10

and the top 6 bullpen candidates:

Player Age G GS Won Lost IP Hits BB SO HR HB Runs ER ERA R vs Rep
Matt Thornton 33 64 0 4 3 59 51 21 63 5 2 24 22 3.36 11
Bobby Jenks 29 53 0 3 2 52 46 15 40 5 1 21 19 3.29 9
Carlos Torres 27 57 0 4 4 65 61 31 56 7 3 33 30 4.15 6
Tony Pena 28 67 0 4 4 69 70 21 47 7 3 34 31 4.04 6
J.J. Putz 33 39 0 2 2 37 35 17 31 4 1 19 17 4.14 4
Scott Linebrink 33 53 0 3 3 52 52 19 42 8 2 28 26 4.50 2

November 15, 2009

CHONE 2010 White Sox projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 15, 2009 5:55 pm
Tags:

Chone Smith @ Baseball Projection:

Player Pos Age G AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP PA AVG OBP SLG R150
Quentin, Carlos H 27 123 415 71 112 25 1 23 77 3 2 43 66 17 475 0.270 0.362 0.501 21
Konerko, Paul H 34 141 517 70 135 27 1 26 81 1 0 59 93 7 583 0.261 0.345 0.468 11
Beckham, Gordon H 23 148 523 77 143 37 2 17 77 8 6 52 92 6 581 0.273 0.346 0.449 10
Rios, Alexis H 29 146 567 80 153 34 4 18 75 20 6 43 100 5 615 0.270 0.327 0.439 2
Ramirez, Alexei H 28 147 527 69 147 25 2 17 73 11 7 37 68 2 566 0.279 0.329 0.431 1

More players at the link. Announcement here.

CHONE’s projections have a pretty good record.

October 7, 2009

2010 White Sox ZiPS Projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 7, 2009 3:17 pm
Tags:

Dan Szymborski:

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+
Paul Konerko             1b  34  .269  .349  .465 136 499  64 134 27  1 23  73  58  90  1  0   114
Carlos Quentin           lf  27  .261  .353  .459 119 418  67 109 24  1 19  69  42  72  4  1   114
Jermaine Dye             rf  36  .265  .334  .474 128 479  69 127 26  1 24  70  46 102  2  2   112
Gordon Beckham           3b  23  .267  .334  .450 152 580  80 155 42  2 20  84  52 101 10  4   106
Alexis Rios              rf  29  .275  .325  .442 146 579  75 159 35  4 18  70  42 100 22  6   102
Alexei Ramirez           ss  28  .288  .333  .427 141 517  65 149 23  2 15  68  36  66 14  7   101

Click the link for all the projections.

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