White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

December 24, 2010

The Hardball Times’ 2011 projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 24, 2010 12:56 pm
Tags: ,

Introduction. THT’s Forecasted Final 2011 Standings:

American League Central
Team Wins Losses
DET 87 75
MIN 79 83
CHA 79 83
CLE 68 94
KCA 58 104

A computer projection that’s not upbeat about the White Sox. Nothing new here!

May 26, 2010

Baseball-Reference looks at the playoff races

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 26, 2010 8:51 pm
Tags: ,

B-R blog:

AL Central

Favorite: Twins
Contender: Tigers
Done: White Sox, Royals, Indians

Analysis: Despite being only one game out, I think the Tigers need to be considered a long shot for the playoffs. Their run differential is very small at just +6 and they don’t deserve a record of 6 games over .500. They should finish with at most 85 wins unless they improve dramatically. The Twins are the only team in this division to be taken seriously this year.

PECOTA puts the White Sox playoff chances at less than 1%.

May 2, 2010

Updating the playoff projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 2, 2010 10:14 pm
Tags: ,

BTB updates the CHONE projections:

I’ll look at the AL first. The tables contain preseason playoff probability (PS P%), current probability to win the division (C DW%), current probability to win the wild card (C WC%), and current playoff probability (C P%).

AL Central
Ps P% C DW% C WC% C P%
Twins 47% 60% 2% 62%
Indians 27% 15% 1% 16%
White Sox 22% 12% 1% 13%
Tigers 7% 10% 1% 11%
Royals 5% 3% 0% 3%

BP puts the division odds at 16.7%, PECOTA at 4.4% and ELO at 9.8%.

UPDATE: Accuscore puts the division chances at 2.4%.

May 1, 2010

2010 White Sox CHONE projections for hitters – May update

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 1, 2010 10:28 pm
Tags:

Sean Smith (announcement):

Player Team Pos Age G AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP PA AVG OBP SLG R150 Def WAR
Konerko, Paul CHA 1B 34 122 446 62 118 23 1 24 73 0 0 52 78 6 504 0.265 0.349 0.482 16 0 2.1
Beckham, Gordon CHA 3B 23 128 462 69 126 33 1 15 68 7 5 47 79 6 515 0.273 0.348 0.446 10 2 2.9
Flowers, Tyler CHA C 24 105 303 39 74 17 1 11 42 2 2 39 95 5 347 0.244 0.340 0.416 1 -6 1.8
Quentin, Carlos CHA OF 27 106 358 60 93 20 1 20 65 3 1 38 58 14 410 0.260 0.354 0.489 18 -3 1.9
Rios, Alexis CHA OF 29 126 489 70 133 29 3 16 65 19 5 37 85 4 530 0.272 0.328 0.442 2 0 1.2

more at the link

April 22, 2010

THT’s Dan Hudson projection

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 22, 2010 11:46 am
Tags: ,

Hagen:

Dan Hudson / SP / Chicago White Sox

2010 thoughts:
Hudson is Triple-A Charlotte’s best arm. It will be difficult for Chicago to keep him away from the majors. Expect them to cave in by July.

Average-year projection:
198 IP / 4.40 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 163 SO / 194 H / 69 BB

Prime-year projection:
210 IP / 3.91 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 15 W / 12 L / 181 SO / 197 H / 66 BB

April 19, 2010

Playoff Odds

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 19, 2010 2:16 pm
Tags:

Baseball Prospectus

Original version

Division: 13.8%, Wildcard: 6.6%, Playoffs: 20.4%

PECOTA-adjusted

Division: 7.0%, Wildcard: 0.8%, Playoffs: 7.8%

ELO-adjusted

Division: 9.9%, Wildcard: 3.9%, Playoffs: 13.8%

Accuscore

Division: 6.7% Playoffs: 9.6%

March 20, 2010

BaseballMusings looks on the Sox offense

BaseballMusings plugs the Marcel projections into the Lineup Analysis Tool:

  • Best lineup: 4.89 runs per game
  • Probable lineup: 4.84 runs per game
  • Worst lineup: 4.67 runs per game
  • Regressed lineup: 4.56 runs per game

The White Sox probable lineup comes very close to the optimum lineup, just 0.5 behind. One reason is that Guillen puts Pierre, Beckham and Quentin consecutively in the lineup. The LAT slots them 9-1-2 instead of 1-2-3, but keeping those three together helps get the most out of the order.

The lineup used now is ‘Pierre, Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios, Pierzynski, Ramirez, Teahen and Kotsay.’ When I used the LAT back in February 1, the projected lineup was ‘Pierre, Rios, Quentin, Konerko, Teahen, Beckham, Pierzynski, Ramirez and Kotsay,’ and the results were:

Best lineup: 4.89 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.81 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.67 runs per game

Seems the current lineup projection is closer to the optimal run production!

March 18, 2010

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: AL Central

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 18, 2010 2:55 am
Tags: ,

Paine @ B-R:

This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango’s Marcel projection system.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 MIN AL-C 84.9 77.1 53.4% 23.1% 10.0% 4.7%
2 DET AL-C 81.2 80.8 25.8% 10.2% 4.0% 1.5%
3 CHA AL-C 79.5 82.5 17.9% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
4 CLE AL-C 76.4 85.6 8.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
5 KCA AL-C 70.5 91.5 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Fangraphs can haz ZiPS

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 18, 2010 1:08 am
Tags:

Appelman:

The 2010 ZiPS projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory are now available in the player pages and sortable formats.

This wraps up the projections we’ll be carrying on FanGraphs this year and ZiPS, just like last year, will be updated daily all season long.

Here’s the 2009 Sox stats page that has links to all the 2009 players.

March 15, 2010

BDD’s White Sox 2010 season preview

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 15, 2010 8:03 pm
Tags: ,

Rob McQuown:

2010 Outlook

Peavy. Buehrle. Danks. Floyd. Hudson. Garcia.  While history isn’t likely to compare this rotation to Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Avery anytime soon, the Sox already had a trio of excellent 120 ERA+ types, added Cy Young winner Peavy and talented youngster Hudson.  If healthy, the 2010 White Sox arguably have the game’s best rotation. The average fans may not be able to distinguish it as such, given the ballpark and the expected offensive struggles, but opposing managers will be well aware of the relentless nature of this strong and deep rotation. The starters will be well-supported by a solid and deep bullpen again in 2010, so the overall pitching should be fantastic.

Offensively and defensively, the team is founded on some moves which seem, at times, to be more like wishcasting than solid GM strategy, but Kenny Williams has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. The mantra has been more “small ball” and defense this season, but the two top steals guys are gone from 2009, and lots of players are learning (or re-acquainting themselves with) new positions, so the defensive benefit is questionable.  Still, Juan Pierre, despite his noodle arm, fits the “new mold” to a “T” as he’s a rangy outfielder who embodies the “small ball” approach to the game. …

March 4, 2010

Fangraphs’ Fan Standings

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ March 4, 2010 11:16 pm
Tags: ,

Appelman:

Twins        82
White Sox    79
Tigers       78
Indians      76
Royals       73

February 25, 2010

2010 Wins Over/Unders

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 25, 2010 8:05 pm
Tags: ,

Vegas Watch:

Chicago W- 82
Minnesota- 82
Detroit- 81
Cleveland- 73
Kansas City- 71

February 16, 2010

February 16 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 16, 2010 11:18 am
Tags: , , , ,

- Dan Hudson comes in at no. 9 in Phil Rogers’ ROY predictions.

- Could the Sox move their games and anchor a new FM sports radio station in Chicago?

- B-R will get Negro League (1940-1948) and Cuban statistics.

- Sox have won 14 and lost 8 arbitration hearings since 1974 when arbitration began.

- “There is a good chance that [Yuniesky] Maya will choose a team that offers a better opportunity to immediately enter its starting rotation.” (Bradford).

- Gregor’s spring training preview. Whitesox.com spring training previews here, here, and here.

- PECOTA has been updated. Sox projected at 80-82 in a tight AL Central.

February 12, 2010

February 12 links

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 12, 2010 8:00 pm
Tags: , ,

- Sox sign RHP Ben Fritz.

- Playoff Probabilities Simulation – PECOTA Edition.

- Four Reasons Teams Are Staying Away from Jermaine Dye.

February 9, 2010

2010 CHONE Projected Standings

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 9, 2010 6:43 pm
Tags:

Sean Smith:

AL Central Wins Losses
Minnesota Twins 87 75
Cleveland Indians 82 80
Chicago White Sox 81 81
Detroit Tigers 75 87
Kansas City Royals 72 90

from the blog:

So this new set of projections looks only at the starting lineup of every team, the top 5 pitchers (rated on runs above average in a neutral environment for 200 innings each), and the top 2 relievers (70 innings each).

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