The Hardball Times’ 2011 projections

Introduction. THT’s Forecasted Final 2011 Standings:

American League Central
Team	Wins	Losses
DET	87	75
MIN	79	83
CHA	79	83
CLE	68	94
KCA	58	104

A computer projection that’s not upbeat about the White Sox. Nothing new here!

Baseball-Reference looks at the playoff races

B-R blog:

AL Central

Favorite: Twins
Contender: Tigers
Done: White Sox, Royals, Indians

Analysis: Despite being only one game out, I think the Tigers need to be considered a long shot for the playoffs. Their run differential is very small at just +6 and they don’t deserve a record of 6 games over .500. They should finish with at most 85 wins unless they improve dramatically. The Twins are the only team in this division to be taken seriously this year.

PECOTA puts the White Sox playoff chances at less than 1%.

Updating the playoff projections

BTB updates the CHONE projections:

I’ll look at the AL first. The tables contain preseason playoff probability (PS P%), current probability to win the division (C DW%), current probability to win the wild card (C WC%), and current playoff probability (C P%).

AL Central

	Ps P%	C DW%	C WC%	C P%
Twins	47%	60%	2%	62%
Indians	27%	15%	1%	16%
White Sox	22%	12%	1%	13%
Tigers	7%	10%	1%	11%
Royals	5%	3%	0%	3%

BP puts the division odds at 16.7%, PECOTA at 4.4% and ELO at 9.8%.

UPDATE: Accuscore puts the division chances at 2.4%.

2010 White Sox CHONE projections for hitters – May update

Sean Smith (announcement):

Player	Team	Pos	Age	G	AB	R	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	R150	Def	WAR
Konerko, Paul	CHA	1B	34	122	446	62	118	23	1	24	73	0	0	52	78	6	504	0.265	0.349	0.482	16	0	2.1
Beckham, Gordon	CHA	3B	23	128	462	69	126	33	1	15	68	7	5	47	79	6	515	0.273	0.348	0.446	10	2	2.9
Flowers, Tyler	CHA	C	24	105	303	39	74	17	1	11	42	2	2	39	95	5	347	0.244	0.340	0.416	1	-6	1.8
Quentin, Carlos	CHA	OF	27	106	358	60	93	20	1	20	65	3	1	38	58	14	410	0.260	0.354	0.489	18	-3	1.9
Rios, Alexis	CHA	OF	29	126	489	70	133	29	3	16	65	19	5	37	85	4	530	0.272	0.328	0.442	2	0	1.2

more at the link

THT’s Dan Hudson projection

Hagen:

Dan Hudson / SP / Chicago White Sox

2010 thoughts:
Hudson is Triple-A Charlotte’s best arm. It will be difficult for Chicago to keep him away from the majors. Expect them to cave in by July.

Average-year projection:
198 IP / 4.40 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 163 SO / 194 H / 69 BB

Prime-year projection:
210 IP / 3.91 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 15 W / 12 L / 181 SO / 197 H / 66 BB

Playoff Odds

Baseball Prospectus

Original version

Division: 13.8%, Wildcard: 6.6%, Playoffs: 20.4%

PECOTA-adjusted

Division: 7.0%, Wildcard: 0.8%, Playoffs: 7.8%

ELO-adjusted

Division: 9.9%, Wildcard: 3.9%, Playoffs: 13.8%

Accuscore

Division: 6.7% Playoffs: 9.6%

BaseballMusings looks on the Sox offense

BaseballMusings plugs the Marcel projections into the Lineup Analysis Tool:

• Best lineup: 4.89 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.84 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.67 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.56 runs per game

The White Sox probable lineup comes very close to the optimum lineup, just 0.5 behind. One reason is that Guillen puts Pierre, Beckham and Quentin consecutively in the lineup. The LAT slots them 9-1-2 instead of 1-2-3, but keeping those three together helps get the most out of the order.

The lineup used now is ‘Pierre, Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios, Pierzynski, Ramirez, Teahen and Kotsay.’ When I used the LAT back in February 1, the projected lineup was ‘Pierre, Rios, Quentin, Konerko, Teahen, Beckham, Pierzynski, Ramirez and Kotsay,’ and the results were:

Best lineup: 4.89 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.81 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.67 runs per game

Seems the current lineup projection is closer to the optimal run production!

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: AL Central

Paine @ B-R:

This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango’s Marcel projection system.

Rk	Team	Div	W	L	Plyff	wLDS	wLCS	wWS
1	MIN	AL-C	84.9	77.1	53.4%	23.1%	10.0%	4.7%
2	DET	AL-C	81.2	80.8	25.8%	10.2%	4.0%	1.5%
3	CHA	AL-C	79.5	82.5	17.9%	6.3%	2.6%	1.0%
4	CLE	AL-C	76.4	85.6	8.1%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
5	KCA	AL-C	70.5	91.5	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

…

Fangraphs can haz ZiPS

Appelman:

The 2010 ZiPS projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory are now available in the player pages and sortable formats.

This wraps up the projections we’ll be carrying on FanGraphs this year and ZiPS, just like last year, will be updated daily all season long.

Here’s the 2009 Sox stats page that has links to all the 2009 players.

BDD’s White Sox 2010 season preview

Rob McQuown:

2010 Outlook

Peavy. Buehrle. Danks. Floyd. Hudson. Garcia.  While history isn’t likely to compare this rotation to Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Avery anytime soon, the Sox already had a trio of excellent 120 ERA+ types, added Cy Young winner Peavy and talented youngster Hudson.  If healthy, the 2010 White Sox arguably have the game’s best rotation. The average fans may not be able to distinguish it as such, given the ballpark and the expected offensive struggles, but opposing managers will be well aware of the relentless nature of this strong and deep rotation. The starters will be well-supported by a solid and deep bullpen again in 2010, so the overall pitching should be fantastic.

Offensively and defensively, the team is founded on some moves which seem, at times, to be more like wishcasting than solid GM strategy, but Kenny Williams has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. The mantra has been more “small ball” and defense this season, but the two top steals guys are gone from 2009, and lots of players are learning (or re-acquainting themselves with) new positions, so the defensive benefit is questionable.  Still, Juan Pierre, despite his noodle arm, fits the “new mold” to a “T” as he’s a rangy outfielder who embodies the “small ball” approach to the game. …

Fangraphs’ Fan Standings

Appelman:

Twins        82
White Sox    79
Tigers       78
Indians      76
Royals       73

2010 Wins Over/Unders

Vegas Watch:

Chicago W- 82
Minnesota- 82
Detroit- 81
Cleveland- 73
Kansas City- 71

February 16 links

- Dan Hudson comes in at no. 9 in Phil Rogers’ ROY predictions.

- Could the Sox move their games and anchor a new FM sports radio station in Chicago?

- B-R will get Negro League (1940-1948) and Cuban statistics.

- Sox have won 14 and lost 8 arbitration hearings since 1974 when arbitration began.

- “There is a good chance that [Yuniesky] Maya will choose a team that offers a better opportunity to immediately enter its starting rotation.” (Bradford).

- Gregor’s spring training preview. Whitesox.com spring training previews here, here, and here.

- PECOTA has been updated. Sox projected at 80-82 in a tight AL Central.

February 12 links

- Sox sign RHP Ben Fritz.

- Playoff Probabilities Simulation – PECOTA Edition.

- Four Reasons Teams Are Staying Away from Jermaine Dye.

2010 CHONE Projected Standings

Sean Smith:

AL Central	Wins	Losses
Minnesota Twins	87	75
Cleveland Indians	82	80
Chicago White Sox	81	81
Detroit Tigers	75	87
Kansas City Royals	72	90

from the blog:

So this new set of projections looks only at the starting lineup of every team, the top 5 pitchers (rated on runs above average in a neutral environment for 200 innings each), and the top 2 relievers (70 innings each).