White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

January 31, 2012

Clay Davenport’s and sg’s 2012 projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 31, 2012 11:30 pm
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Clay Davenport (1/31):

AL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
DET 89 73 771 696
CWS 79 83 696 716
CLE 78 84 700 728
MIN 74 88 679 741
KCR 71 91 681 779

sg @ RLYB uses his 2012 Marcel forecasts (1/28):

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%

Other White Sox links:

January 29, 2012

More High School draftees, for the Sox, in the upcoming drafts?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ January 29, 2012 10:00 pm
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other related tweets

November 28, 2011

Jonathan Mayo on the new CBA’s draft provisions [UPDATE]

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ November 28, 2011 12:45 pm
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Jonathan Mayo:

  • If a Club does not sign a pick, its signing bonus pool is reduced by the amount of the pick.  So, for example, if a Club does not sign its first round pick, and its first round pick had a slot of $1.5 million, the Club’s signing bonus pool would be reduced by $1.5. This is true of any unsigned pick, not just those covered by compensation. The main idea here was to not create incentive for a team to NOT sign a pick. Without this safeguard, a team could “punt” a pick in order to divert those funds to another pick later on, which could result in a Draft that would look a lot like the old ones. In the next year’s draft, the Club would receive a compensation selection for failing to sign its first, second or third round selections, and the slot assigned to the compensation selection will be added to its signing bonus pool.
  • In the new system, the total aggregate pool in the 10 slotted rounds will be $185 million. With an estimate of $20 million spent after the 10th round (remember, bonuses up to $100,000 do not count toward a team’s aggregate pool), that means teams could spend a combined total of $205 million without getting penalized. That total of $205 million is higher than every Draft from 2004-2010.  Spending in past years: $159 million (2006); $155 million (2007); $198 million (2009) and $200 million in 2010.

Jim Callis says the “mlb draft changes [are] looking more direr.” I wonder, will the long-term result of this be young athletes shunning baseball? MAYBE the draft provisions will be modified in the next CBA to prevent this but who knows?

UPDATE: More from Jim Callis:

  • The draft has been reduced from 50 to 40 rounds.
  • The most significant new detail: If a team fails to sign a player in the first 10 rounds, its draft cap is reduced by the assigned value of his pick. It can’t reallocate that value to sign other players. However, it can reallocate the difference between a player’s bonus and the value of his choice.

October 14, 2011

Go young Kenny. Go young.

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 14, 2011 8:00 pm
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A fantastic study by BP’s Rany Jazayerli. It’s divided in two. Part 1:

… Here’s my point: I don’t think anyone would argue that, all things equal, a 17-year-old player is likely to develop into a better player than an 18-year-old player. But I wondered if the baseball industry as a whole has underestimated the importance of age. I wondered if, given two players taken at the same slot in the draft, the younger player returned greater value. In other words, even accounting for the fact that teams took age into consideration—presumably, a player who is particularly young for his draft class might get picked earlier—I wondered if those players were stillundervalued. So I decided to do a study.

So far, all I’ve presented to you are anecdotes, and the plural of anecdote is not data. For instance, the youngest hitter drafted #1 overall wasn’t Griffey, it was Tim Foli, who in 16 years in the majors hit a total of 25 home runs. We need some data.

Fortunately, this is what BP interns were created for. With the help of Bradley Ankrom, Paige Landsem, and Clark Goble, I compiled a list of every high school hitter selected in the first 100 picks of every draft from 1965 through 1996. I stopped the data set at 1996 because I wanted to look at how these players performed over the course of their careers—I defined “careers” as the 15 years after they were drafted. …

And here’s Part 2.

July 8, 2011

The (Three) Quickest players to reach the majors from each draft

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ July 8, 2011 1:00 pm
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Callis @ BA:

Below is a list of the three quickest players to majors from each of the first 46 June drafts (draft round in parentheses):

Fastest Players To Majors, June Draft (Regular Phase Only)
Year Players/Teams (Draft Rounds)
2010 Chris Sale/CWS (1), Josh Spence/SD (9)
2009 Mike Leake/Cin (1), Drew Storen/Was (1), Stephen Strasburg/Was (1)
2008 Conor Gillaspie/SF (1s), Ryan Perry/Det (1), Daniel Schlereth/Ari (1)
2007 Ross Detwiler/Was (1), Eddie Kunz/NYM (1s), David Price/TB (1)
2006 Andrew Miller/Det (1), Joe Smith/NYM (3), Brandon Morrow/Sea (1)
2005 Joey Devine/Atl (1), Ryan Zimmerman/Was (1), Craig Hansen/Bos (1)
2004 Huston Street/Oak (1s), Cla Meredith/Bos (6), Jeff Fiorentino/Bal (3)
2003 Ryan Wagner/Cin (1), Chad Cordero/Mtl (1), Rickie Weeks/Mil (1)
2002 Kevin Correia/SF (4), Khalil Greene/SD (1), Zack Greinke/KC (1)
2001 Mark Prior/ChC (1), Dewon Brazelton/TB (1), Kirk Saarloos/Hou (3)
2000 Xavier Nady/SD (2), Ryan Bukvich/KC (11), Joe Borchard/CWS (1)
1999 Eric Munson/Det (1), Barry Zito/Oak (1), Matt Ginter/CWS (1)
1998 J.D. Drew/StL (1), Jeff Weaver/Det (1), Ryan Rupe/TB (6)
1997 Jim Parque/CWS (1s), Matt Anderson/Det (1), Troy Glaus/Cal (1)
1996 Mike Caruso/SF (2), Braden Looper/StL (1), Billy Koch/Tor (1)
1995 Ariel Prieto/Oak (1), Darin Erstad/Cal (1), Matt Morris, StL (1)
1994 Dustin Hermanson/SD (1), C.J. Nitkowski/Cin (1), Paul Wilson/NYM (1)
1993 Brian Anderson/Cal (1), Jeff Granger/KC (1), Darrin Dreifort/LAD (1)
1992 Jeffrey Hammonds/Bal (1), Chris Gomez/Det (3), Tim Davis/Sea (6)
1991 Benji Gil/Tex (1), Brent Gates/Oak (1), David McCarty/Min (1)
1990 Alex Fernandez/CWS (1), Lance Dickson/ChC (1), Chris Haney/Mtl (2)
1989 John Olerud/Tor (3), Ben McDonald/Bal (1), Scott Erickson/Min (4)
1988 Gregg Olson/Bal (1), Jim Abbott/Cal (1), Andy Benes/SD (1)
1987 Jack McDowell/CWS (1), Cris Carpenter/StL (1), Jack Armstrong/Cin (1)
1986 Mike Loynd/Tex (7), Greg Swindell/Cle (1), Bo Jackson/KC (4)
1985 Will Clark/SF (1), Pete Incaviglia/Mtl (1), Bobby Witt/Tex (1)
1984 Oddibe McDowell/Tex (1), Billy Swift/Sea (1), Scott Bankhead/KC (1)
1983 Jeff Robinson/SF (2), Roger Clemens/Bos (1), Carl Willis/Det (23)
1982 Bryan Oelkers/Min (1), Spike Owen/Sea (1), Bret Saberhagen/KC (19)
1981 Mike Moore/Sea (1), Frank Viola/Min (2), Jeff Keener/StL (7)
1980 Rich Bordi/Oak (3), Terry Francona/Mtl (1), Tom Gorman/Mtl (4)
1979 Jerry Don Gleaton/Tex (1), Steve Howe/LAD (1), Brad Mills/Mtl (17)
1978 Mike Morgan/Oak (1), Bob Horner/Atl (1), Brian Milner/Tor (7)
1977 Brian Greer/SD (1), Roger Erickson/Min (3), Paul Molitor/Mil (1), Ozzie Smith/SD (4)
1976 Bob Owchinko/SD (1), Floyd Bannister/Hou (1), Lary Sorensen/Mil (8)
1975 Rick Cerone/Cle (1), Danny Goodwin/Cal (1), Chris Knapp/CWS (1)
1974 Jack Kucek/CWS (2), Bill Almon/SD (1), Jim Umbarger/Tex (16)
1973 Dave Winfield/SD (1), David Clyde/Tex (1), Eddie Bane/Min (1)
1972 Dave Roberts/SD (1), Jim Crawford/Hou (14), Ray Burris/ChC (17)
1971 Mike Caldwell/SD (12), Jay Franklin/SD (1), Mac Scarce/Phi (8)
1970 Steve Dunning/Cle (1), Lee Richard/CWS (1), Terry Forster/CWS (2)
1969 Don Gullett/Cin (1), Larry Gura/ChC (2), Balor Moore/Mtl (1)
1968 Bill Lee/Bos (22), Thurman Munson/NYY (1), Oscar Gamble/ChC (16)
1967 Mike Paul/Cle (20), Ralph Garr/Atl (3), Dusty Baker/Atl (26), Jimmy McMath/ChC (2)
1966 Rich Nye/ChC (14), Gary Nolan/Cin (1), Reggie Jackson/Oak (1)
1965 Ken Holtzman/ChC (4), Joe Coleman/Was (1), Clyde Wright/Cal (6)

May 21, 2010

Always Bet on Tools (in the MLB Draft)

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ May 21, 2010 11:47 am
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says Kevin Goldstein:

While the use of statistical analysis has grown in leaps and bounds, especially from the college side of things, tools still rule the day when it comes to the draft, so let’s focus on the best tools from the top prospects available, beginning with position players. …

March 24, 2010

FutureSox has a podcast with Doug Laumann

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/future-sox/2010/03/futuresox-podcast-with-doug-laumann.html (25:53)

Laumann likes very much what he sees from David Holmberg this spring, and thinks Trayce Thompson will probably eventually move to a corner outfield position. Not this year though. Laumann also touches on Jared Mitchell, Bryce Harper, Charlie Leesman, Leroy Hunt, Stefan Gartrell, C.J. Retherford.

December 14, 2009

International Draft

Filed under: MLB — The Wizard @ December 14, 2009 10:52 am
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Mayo:

Players available in each year’s Draft class hail from the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico. If the powers that be have their way, however, that could all change as early as 2012.

Commissioner Bud Selig has stated on more than one occasion his support for both a hard slotting system for Draft bonuses and a Draft that would be open to amateur players from every nation.

“There’s no question in my mind, in 2011, certainly a [hard] slotting system and a worldwide Draft are things we will be very aggressive in talking about,” Selig said soon after this past Draft’s signing deadline in August.

Is such an international Draft at all tenable? Is it realistic to imagine that there’s a way to bring all of the baseball-playing nations under one Draft umbrella? …

and Calcaterra:

The league typically cites a litany of problems when arguing in favor of the international draft, including concerns of age fraud, exploitation of the players by buscones, rampant corruption and overall cost. I’ve written at length on these issues before, and the chief thing to take away from it is that when it comes to talking about an international draft, the league tries to conflate all of these issues into one giant problem that is inherent in international free agency when, in fact, they are many separate issues, most of which could be solved without the institution of an international draft. …

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