John Sickels on Brent Morel

Sickels’ Q & A:

Q: Based on the acquisiton of Mark Teahen, do you see Morel being used as a trade piece in the future by Kenny Williams? Or do you see any type of situtation where he might actually receive significant playing time w/ Teahen, Alexei, Becham, and Nix ahead of him?

A: I’ve given up predicting what Kenny Williams will do.

I like Morel as a prospect and, while Teahen has his uses, if Morel develops to his maximum potenital I don’t think Mark is going to be good enough to block him.

BTW, here’s Brent Morel’s scouting report from FutureSox.

Kenny Williams’ 6th player tool

Gonzales:

In addition to the five tools that scouts use to evaluate players, White Sox general manager Ken Williams has added another measuring stick.

Camaraderie.

In Mark Teahen, Williams might have landed a serviceable player who is familiar with the Sox’s environment and can integrate humor to the clubhouse.

Teahen already is comfortable that he is moving to his old position — third base. He also doesn’t have to carry more than his share of the offensive load now that he is surrounded by more seasoned players than his previous five seasons with the Royals. …

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 2

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

In Part 1 we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. Let’s see what happens if the Sox sign a DH, say Jermaine Dye. I think Tyler Flowers is a bigger probability, but his projections would be more guesses.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Bill James projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.342	.355
Alex Rios	.332	.445
Carlos Quentin	.356	.511
Paul Konerko	.354	.477
Marc Teahen	.336	.422
Gordon Beckham	.360	.477
A.J. Pierzynski	.323	.419
Alexei Ramirez	.339	.431
Jermaine Dye	.333	.480

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.116. Runs for 162 games: 828.792.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.257. Runs for 162 games: 851.634.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356. Difference: 18.978 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264. Difference: 20.736 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, CHONE projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.325	.361
Alex Rios	.327	.439
Carlos Quentin	.358	.494
Paul Konerko	.345	.468
Marc Teahen	.324	.424
Gordon Beckham	.348	.457
A.J. Pierzynski	.309	.411
Alexei Ramirez	.327	.427
Jermaine Dye	.332	.461

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.885. Runs for 162 games: 791.370.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.769. Runs for 162 games: 772.578.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416. Difference: 18.954 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996. Difference: 23.004 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010. Difference: 26.568 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Marcel projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.336	.361
Alex Rios	.327	.444
Carlos Quentin	.349	.481
Paul Konerko	.342	.457
Marc Teahen	.330	.410
Gordon Beckham	.353	.458
A.J. Pierzynski	.317	.409
Alexei Ramirez	.328	.425
Jermaine Dye	.328	.474

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.883. Runs for 162 games: 791.046.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.013. Runs for 162 games: 812.016.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.776. Runs for 162 games: 773.716.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342. Difference: 19.674 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702. Difference: 17.014 runs less.

Jermaine Dye as DH, Fans projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre (108)	.337	.356
Alex Rios (71)	.329	.462
Carlos Quentin (51)	.365	.501
Paul Konerko (52)	.347	.462
Marc Teahen (41)	.322	.421
Gordon Beckham (67)	.361	.458
A.J. Pierzynski (39)	.317	.405
Alexei Ramirez (57)	.337	.437
Jermaine Dye (41)	.339	.475

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.027. Runs for 162 games: 814.374.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.183. Runs for 162 games: 839.946.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.904. Runs for 162 games: 794.448.

Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744. Difference: 18.630 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022. Difference: 24.924 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556. Difference: 26.892 runs less.

The best and worst lineup combinations are inside.

Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 1

Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.

What do we get if we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool?

Merkin’s lineup, Bill James projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.342	.355
Alex Rios	.332	.445
Carlos Quentin	.356	.511
Paul Konerko	.354	.477
Marc Teahen	.336	.422
Gordon Beckham	.360	.477
A.J. Pierzynski	.323	.419
Alexei Ramirez	.339	.431
Mark Kotsay	.326	.378

Runs per game for above lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264.

Merkin’s lineup, CHONE projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.325	.361
Alex Rios	.327	.439
Carlos Quentin	.358	.494
Paul Konerko	.345	.468
Marc Teahen	.324	.424
Gordon Beckham	.348	.457
A.J. Pierzynski	.309	.411
Alexei Ramirez	.327	.427
Mark Kotsay	.307	.363

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010.

Merkin’s lineup, Marcel projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre	.336	.361
Alex Rios	.327	.444
Carlos Quentin	.349	.481
Paul Konerko	.342	.457
Marc Teahen	.330	.410
Gordon Beckham	.353	.458
A.J. Pierzynski	.317	.409
Alexei Ramirez	.328	.425
Mark Kotsay	.318	.386

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702.

Merkin’s lineup, Fans projections
Player	OBP	SLG
Juan Pierre (108)	.337	.356
Alex Rios (71)	.329	.462
Carlos Quentin (51)	.365	.501
Paul Konerko (52)	.347	.462
Marc Teahen (41)	.322	.421
Gordon Beckham (67)	.361	.458
A.J. Pierzynski (39)	.317	.405
Alexei Ramirez (57)	.337	.437
Mark Kotsay (15)	.316	.371

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556.

Different lineups will be tested in other posts. The best and worst lineup combinations are inside.

Soxfest (Day 2) news

Kenny wonders who’s Johnny Damon’s agent. Marc Teahen might wear #23. Bobby Jenks was offered a multi-year deal before he signed his arbitration contract. Kenny on Jordan Danks and Jared Michell: “this is 2010 and we have to win … They got to wait.” Ozzie blamed Kenny for the 2008 team. Jeff Cox: “There’s no ‘i’ in team, but there are 2 in ‘idiot.’” Steve Stone to Greg Walker: “Can you make a guy who can’t hit, hit?” “Um, no.” Rick Hahn: [Gordon] Beckham has changed perception about length of development time. Doug Laumann: [Dayan] Viciedo “a man among boys,” probably will end up @ 1B. Rick Hahn: We’re re-investing in Latin American scouting infrastructure.

What are the chances Jim Thome comes back to the Sox?

Scott Merkin answers:

There’s some sort of chance, even if it’s small, especially with the strong bond between the prodigious slugger and the White Sox. The South Siders also could benefit from a big left-handed bat in the middle of the order.

As mentioned above, though, Guillen seems set on using the rotating DH for now. And it’s Guillen who runs the team on a day-to-day basis, so there’s no reason to force anyone who isn’t part of his present plan. Thome still has some good years ahead of him, and whatever team eventually adds Thome will get 25-to-30 home run potential, great on-base potential and a tremendous clubhouse presence.

Merkin also predicts the Opening Day lineup and batting order:

Let’s go with the Opening Day lineup since it’s hard to predict who will be around in May with general manager Ken Williams at the helm, let alone at the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. Cleveland stands as the White Sox opponent, meaning right-handers Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona or Justin Masterson will get the start.

So, it would be Juan Pierre in left field, Alex Rios in center field and Quentin in right field. The infield, from third to first, would be Mark Teahen, Alexei Ramirez, Gordon Beckham and Konerko, and I’m guessing the left-handed-hitting Kotsay at DH. Mark Buehrle and A.J. Pierzynski will make up the battery. As for a batting order, let’s try Pierre, Rios, Quentin, Konerko, Teahen, Beckham, Pierzynski, Ramirez and Kotsay. Of course, write that lineup in pencil for now.

BTW, Matt Thornton will be answering next week’s mailbag so submit your questions for next week’s mailbag at the form in the middle of the page.

UPDATE: More Thome from Merkin’s ‘Sox continue support of Thome charity’ article:

A strong possibility presently exists that Jim Thome has taken his last swings as part of the White Sox organization.

That possible departure for the popular and prolific designated hitter doesn’t mean a permanent separation will take place between Thome and the South Side of Chicago. In fact, the White Sox once again will serve as presenting sponsors for Saturday’s Joyce Thome Benefit for Children’s Hospital of Illinois in the Peoria Civic Center Ballroom. …

January 5 links

- Jim: A lot of mediocrity or not?

- SoxNet reviews the Sox off-season so far and tries to project the Sox opening day lineup. Please sign Big Jim Kenny!

- Jake Peavy, Matt Thornton and J. J. Putz will attend Cooper’s pitcher mini-camp. There won’t be any pitching. Just playing catch and and talking about pitching.

- John Danks isn’t sweating over the arbitration process.

- What was the only occasion after 1954 that a team used 4 pitchers who appeared in a game for 1 batter or less, the pitchers pitched consecutively, and those pitchers didn’t end the game?

- Alexei Ramirez: Not a lot of XBHs in 2009.

- How long did they go? 2009 edition.

- Pitcher wanted. Must be good.

- Baseball America’s All-Bust teams.

BDD’s New year resolutions

Thorburn:

White Sox – To optimize the defensive alignment and maximize the overall contributions of Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, and Mark Teahen. To enroll Carlos Quentin in a class that explains the cost-benefit analysis of getting on base via HBP, and the associated risk of sitting out a chunk of the season when the baseball wins the collision.

Mark Teahen on the Royals

Cowley: Teahen on life with the Sox now: “Every year with Kansas City I would try and convince myself we made the right moves.”

Cowley: “…. But we knew that we would have to have everything work out perfectly for a chance.’

Cowley: “The nice thing with Chicago with the team in place, guys don’t have to overachieve. They just need to do what they’re capable of doing.”

The Transaction Oracle turns its gaze on Mark Teahen’s new contract

Szymborski:

It’s always nice when you can look up one of your stars and buy out a free agency year without too much pain. It’s not quite as nice when you’re locking up Mark Teahen. …

ZiPS Projection - Mark Teahen (3B)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   DEF
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         526  72 136  26   4  18   57  48 138   8 .259 .324 .426   96    FR
2011         516  78 132  26   4  15   63  47 130   8 .256 .322 .409   91    PR
2012         510  77 129  25   4  14   61  47 130   7 .253 .320 .400   89    PR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps:  Don Money, Jarrod Patterson, Jeff King

Sox sign Mark Teahen to 3-year deal

Merkin:

The White Sox third baseman of the present also became their third baseman of the immediate future when Mark Teahen and the team agreed to a three-year, $14-million contract on Tuesday, avoiding arbitration.

Teahen, 28, who was acquired by the White Sox from Kansas City on Nov. 6 in exchange for Chris Getz and Josh Fields, will earn $3.75 million in 2010, $4.75 million in 2011 and $5.5 million in 2012. Teahen was eligible to become a free agent following the 2011 season. …

Gonzales:

With the signing, the Sox now have 15 players signed for 2010 at $79.675 million, $1.5 of which will come from Kansas City in the Teahen deal.

$14 million? What the hell is going on here? Couldn’t Kenny stop at $8-9 million? Sox got 1 more year. He’d  been a free-agent after 2011…

SoxNet’s take.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes says “the White Sox are saving money over what he would’ve earned in arbitration.”

Kenny Williams on Mark Teahen: We believe he’s going to produce and produce in a big way.

Boras tried to convince Kenny on signing Joe Crede

Heyman:

Kenny Williams, White Sox GM. The White Sox weren’t expected to do much, but they’ve already traded Chris Getz and Josh Fields for Mark Teahen, and signed Andruw Jones and Vizquel, two big-time former stars. Williams surprised folks by forging a deal with Boras for Jones, whom he has coveted for years (they tried many years ago to pry him away from the Braves). Boras, who’s had a sticky relationship with Williams, also tried to sell him on signing Crede rather than trading two young players for the talented unproven Teahen. But apparently détente has its limitations.

Mark Teahen Named 2009 Hutch Award Winner

PR:

SEATTLE, Nov. 30 /PRNewswire/ – Major League Baseball’s Mark Teahen, longtime third baseman for the Kansas City Royals and recently acquired by the Chicago White Sox, will receive the 2009 Hutch Award(®). The award is given annually to a Major League Baseball player who best exemplifies the honor, courage and dedication of baseball great Fred Hutchinson, both on and off the field. …

MLB.com story.

The Sox received nearly $1.5 million in the Mark Teahen trade

Payroll update:

With more than $74 million already earmarked for 12 players in 2010, Williams will try to remain creative and patient in his quest to stretch the Sox’s dollars. Receiving nearly $1.5 million from the Royals as part of a trade essentially will cover the cost of third baseman Mark Teahen’s raise that will increase the Sox’s cash commitments to nearly $78 million. The Sox’s payroll hovered in the mid-$90 million mark last season, and Williams has reiterated his financial resources are tight, while not disclosing his 2010 mark. He added teams are more reluctant to trade prospects in deals similar to the trades that Williams pulled off in past years involving John Danks and Gavin Floyd. …

Some scouts like the Sox Mark Teahen acquisition

Three scouts like the Mark Teahen acquisition, especially now that he will go back to third base:

“That’s where he should have been. You’ll see his numbers improve.”

Another scout:

“Teahen needs to put the ball in play more often with that lineup and lack of power right now. I do think he’ll make their overall defense better at third.”

BTW, here’s Mark Rosenthal’s opinion:

“Mark Teahen was a below average defender at third base last season according to two advanced metrics, and one rival GM says he does not hit well enough to justify the $5 million plus the low-revenue Royals would have had to pay him in salary arbitration. The White Sox can better afford Teahen, but a .749 career OPS at third? Hmmm.”