- Playoff Probabilities Simulation – PECOTA Edition.
- Four Reasons Teams Are Staying Away from Jermaine Dye.
February 12, 2010
February 10, 2010
February 7, 2010
You’re doing it wrong!
When even Phil Rogers implores you to get a DH:
The guess here is he can make enough plays to make a difference in 2010. He [Johnny Damon] appears headed to the Tigers, but the White Sox ought to stage an intervention.
Imagine Damon in the Sox leadoff spot and Juan Pierre as the No. 2 hitter — or the other way around. Can a rotating DH including Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and Jayson Nix outproduce Damon? And what would be the harm in having 23-year-old Jordan Danks spend time with Damon? They seem to be the same kind of player.
Dye’s continuing unemployment relates to an unflattering statistical analysis of his outfield skills and his reluctance to accept a role as a DH or extra outfielder (the Cubs pursued him before turning to Xavier Nady).
… Branyan, like Damon, could improve the White Sox’s DH spot. He strikes out a ton but delivers long balls — 43 in 563 at-bats the last two seasons — and the Sox haven’t added power after sliding to sixth in the AL in homers. He could fit on almost any team in a bench role but fits best in the AL, where he would be an instant upgrade for the Indians, Athletics and Rangers.
then you know,
The run projections I calculated with Dye as DH yielded 12-18 runs more than the ones with Kotsay/Jones.
February 6, 2010
Jermaine Dye headed for to an AL club?
Several baseball executives said Friday that they expect Jermaine Dye to sign with an American League club. That way, his at-bats could be spread among the maximum number of positions: left field, right field, designated hitter and perhaps first base.
But that begs the question: Which AL team? …
February 2, 2010
February 2 links
- A sample of Carl’s work for Jim’s book.
- Jim looks back on Jose’s Sox years.
- Jermaine Dye rejected a $3.3 million contract offer from the Cubs. Xavier Nady grabbed that $3.3 million offer afterwards
- Sox’ improved PECOTA projection: 80-82. One more win!
- Another 2010 projection. Sox: 87.9-74.1.
- A.J. Pierzynski is projected to throw out 21.7% of attempted steals in 2010.
- WAR for the MLB draft.
- There are two types of players…
February 1, 2010
Playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool – Part 2
Fangraphs carries 4 different projections for the 2010 season: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans.
In Part 1 we put Merkin’s projected lineup (link) with the various Fangraphs projections on the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. Let’s see what happens if the Sox sign a DH, say Jermaine Dye. I think Tyler Flowers is a bigger probability, but his projections would be more guesses.
| Jermaine Dye as DH, Bill James projections | ||
| Player | OBP | SLG |
| Juan Pierre | .342 | .355 |
| Alex Rios | .332 | .445 |
| Carlos Quentin | .356 | .511 |
| Paul Konerko | .354 | .477 |
| Marc Teahen | .336 | .422 |
| Gordon Beckham | .360 | .477 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | .323 | .419 |
| Alexei Ramirez | .339 | .431 |
| Jermaine Dye | .333 | .480 |
Runs per game for above lineup: 5.116. Runs for 162 games: 828.792.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.257. Runs for 162 games: 851.634.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 5.043. Runs for 162 games: 816.966. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.138. Runs for 162 games: 832.356. Difference: 18.978 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.872. Runs for 162 games: 789.264. Difference: 20.736 runs less.
| Jermaine Dye as DH, CHONE projections | ||
| Player | OBP | SLG |
| Juan Pierre | .325 | .361 |
| Alex Rios | .327 | .439 |
| Carlos Quentin | .358 | .494 |
| Paul Konerko | .345 | .468 |
| Marc Teahen | .324 | .424 |
| Gordon Beckham | .348 | .457 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | .309 | .411 |
| Alexei Ramirez | .327 | .427 |
| Jermaine Dye | .332 | .461 |
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.885. Runs for 162 games: 791.370.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.000. Runs for 162 games: 810.000.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.769. Runs for 162 games: 772.578.
Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.768. Runs for 162 games: 772.416. Difference: 18.954 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.858. Runs for 162 games: 786.996. Difference: 23.004 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.605. Runs for 162 games: 746.010. Difference: 26.568 runs less.
| Jermaine Dye as DH, Marcel projections | ||
| Player | OBP | SLG |
| Juan Pierre | .336 | .361 |
| Alex Rios | .327 | .444 |
| Carlos Quentin | .349 | .481 |
| Paul Konerko | .342 | .457 |
| Marc Teahen | .330 | .410 |
| Gordon Beckham | .353 | .458 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | .317 | .409 |
| Alexei Ramirez | .328 | .425 |
| Jermaine Dye | .328 | .474 |
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.883. Runs for 162 games: 791.046.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.013. Runs for 162 games: 812.016.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.776. Runs for 162 games: 773.716.
Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for projected lineup: 4.810. Runs for 162 games: 779.220. Difference: 11.826 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 4.891. Runs for 162 games: 792.342. Difference: 19.674 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.671. Runs for 162 games: 756.702. Difference: 17.014 runs less.
| Jermaine Dye as DH, Fans projections | ||
| Player | OBP | SLG |
| Juan Pierre (108) | .337 | .356 |
| Alex Rios (71) | .329 | .462 |
| Carlos Quentin (51) | .365 | .501 |
| Paul Konerko (52) | .347 | .462 |
| Marc Teahen (41) | .322 | .421 |
| Gordon Beckham (67) | .361 | .458 |
| A.J. Pierzynski (39) | .317 | .405 |
| Alexei Ramirez (57) | .337 | .437 |
| Jermaine Dye (41) | .339 | .475 |
Runs per game for above lineup: 5.027. Runs for 162 games: 814.374.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.183. Runs for 162 games: 839.946.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.904. Runs for 162 games: 794.448.
Numbers without Dye were:
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.912. Runs for 162 games: 795.744. Difference: 18.630 runs less.
Runs per game for best lineup: 5.031. Runs for 162 games: 815.022. Difference: 24.924 runs less.
Runs per game for worst lineup: 4.738. Runs for 162 games: 767.556. Difference: 26.892 runs less.
The best and worst lineup combinations are inside. (more…)
December 7, 2009
Ozzie Guillen on Carlos Quentin and the rest of his outfield
The White Sox have done a lot of moving around to improve the defense already this offseason. They’ve said goodbye to Jermaine Dye and will likely be moving Carlos Quentin to right field.
“That’s his natural position,” he said of using Quentin in right. “That’s what I think. He grew up playing right field. He couldn’t play right field for the White Sox because of (Dye). But we’ve got right field and left field. He can play whatever he wants, wherever he feels more comfortable. And we’re waiting to see.”
Guillen was very adamant that Alex Rios will be their everyday center-fielder and said Andruw Jones has no choice but to learn to play left field if he wants to get in the lineup with any sort of frequency. Mark Kotsay — of whom Guillen spoke incredibly highly — is also in the left field mix.
Tyler Flowers the current favorite for the backup catcher position
Williams said the possibility of rookie Tyler Flowers becoming the primary backup catcher to A.J. Pierzynski becomes a strong consideration each day.
“As we sit right now, he’s probably the leading candidate to be the backup,” Williams said. “… Tyler Flowers is going to hit. And that’s one thing we have to consider.”
Another consideration is that teams are starting to sign catchers, even at eye-opening prices. The New York Mets doubled free agent Henry Blanco’s salary by agreeing to a one-year, $1.5 million contract as a backup catcher.
The Mets have yet to land a starting catcher but are considering free agent Bengie Molina. The Sox had interest in Blanco but could shift their sights on Mike Redmond, a dependable contact hitter who was a member of Florida’s 2003 World Series champion team, in which Guillen served as a coach.
More at the link: Jake Peavy, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Jayson Nix, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Brandon Hynick.
December 1, 2009
Sox won’t offer arbitration to Dye, Dotel, Pods, Castro
The White Sox have decided against offering salary arbitration to their free agents, outfielder Jermaine Dye, right-handed reliever Octavio Dotel, outfielder Scott Podsednik and backup catcher Ramon Castro, a decision needing to be made by 11 p.m. CT on Tuesday. …
Gonzales says Dye is expected to draw interest from Texas, Atlanta and San Francisco, and St. Louis if it won’t retain Matt Holliday.
Cowley says the Yankee$ requested Dye’s medical records.
November 30, 2009
Arbitration deadline is tomorrow night
Chances are the Sox won’t offer arbitration to Jermaine Dye and Octavio Dotel says Mark Gonzales:
The landscape is different for the White Sox at this time than it was last winter, when they offered salary arbitration to free agent Orlando Cabrera. They were confident he would decline because of the emergence of Alexei Ramirez and the fact that Cabrera could have been cut and lost the majority of his salary. … It’s extremely rare for a player to take a pay cut in salary arbitration. Dye earned $11.5 million in 2009 and Dotel $6 million. Even if either player accepted salary arbitration and they were later cut in spring training, those players would receive either 30 days’ pay or 45 days’ pay, depending on the date in spring training that they were released. The major league calendar is around 180 days. …
BTW, here’s MLBTR’s Arbitration primer.
November 10, 2009
DH? No way says JD
Jermaine Dye at what positions would he play:
“There are a number of teams I’ve heard already that would love to have me. I know one thing, I will not be DHing. You can put that down. If a team wants to try me out at first base on an every day basis I’ll do that. That’s something I feel will be easy to learn. But as far as DHing that’s not for me. Teams shouldn’t call if that’s their plan.”
A lot more on the link.
November 9, 2009
Links, we got links, we got lots and lots of links.
– Mark Buehrle’s perfect game is the theme of an exhibit at the Art Institute.
– The Pods talks are back on. But Kenny won’t sacrifice other needs to fill the leadoff role.
– Dotel and Dye are officially ‘Type A free-agents’. Dotel filed for free-agency.
– Kenny expects the youngsters to contribute.
– Kenny will seek Carlos Quentin’s permission if he wants to move him to Right Field.
– Sox interest in Aroldis Chapman appears lukewarm says van dyck.
– Here’s the Elias free-agent rankings list. BA’s Q&A is here.
– Sox’ odds to win the 2010 World Series: 28-1.
– Phil Rogers wonders if Kenny will go after Roy Halladay.
November 7, 2009
Teahen and $1 million?
[Sox GM Kenny] Williams said the trade for Teahen from the Royals for second baseman Chris Getz and infielder Josh Fields, which was reported Thursday, needed approval from the commissioner’s office before an announcement could be made. The Sox also received a reported $1 million from the Royals.
Gonzales, also, says with Dye’s buyout the Sox are expected to look for another outfielder while keeping an eye an their own outfield prospect, Jordan Danks, in the Arizona Fall League.
THT Fantasy on Jermaine Dye
At 35, Dye is on his last leg as a major league ball player. He hit .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI in 2009. Dye has officially developed his old person skills, with his walk rate 2.9% above his career average and above 11% for the first time in his career. He can still hit homers, so he has some value to fantasy owners.
He may even be able to give you a better average than anyone expects next year. His BABIP was .269, while his xBABIP was .295. His line drive rate was the second lowest of his career (16.9%), but even so, his BABIP will come closer to his .300 career average in 2010. …
November 6, 2009
Sox buy Dye out; looks like Dye is headed elsewhere
WhiteSox have bought out the 2010 mutual option for OF Jermaine Dye, making him eligible to file for free agency.
Cowley says the cost was $950,000.
Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan (MLB.com) says Dye “is of interest to the Rangers.”
whitesox.com’s Kelly Thesier says it looks like Dye is headed elsewhere:
The White Sox and Dye could negotiate another contract, but it appears likely that he is headed to another team. When Chicago acquired outfielder Alex Rios at the end of August, it appeared as if Dye’s time in the Windy City was going to come to an end. The Rangers have been mentioned as one team that could possibly have interest in the outfielder.
