Baseball-Reference looks at the playoff races

B-R blog:

AL Central

Favorite: Twins
Contender: Tigers
Done: White Sox, Royals, Indians

Analysis: Despite being only one game out, I think the Tigers need to be considered a long shot for the playoffs. Their run differential is very small at just +6 and they don’t deserve a record of 6 games over .500. They should finish with at most 85 wins unless they improve dramatically. The Twins are the only team in this division to be taken seriously this year.

PECOTA puts the White Sox playoff chances at less than 1%.

Updating the playoff projections

BTB updates the CHONE projections:

I’ll look at the AL first. The tables contain preseason playoff probability (PS P%), current probability to win the division (C DW%), current probability to win the wild card (C WC%), and current playoff probability (C P%).

AL Central

	Ps P%	C DW%	C WC%	C P%
Twins	47%	60%	2%	62%
Indians	27%	15%	1%	16%
White Sox	22%	12%	1%	13%
Tigers	7%	10%	1%	11%
Royals	5%	3%	0%	3%

BP puts the division odds at 16.7%, PECOTA at 4.4% and ELO at 9.8%.

UPDATE: Accuscore puts the division chances at 2.4%.

Bloomberg Sports 2010 AL Central preview

Gardner:

April 5 links

- Happy Opening Day!

- Uncle Phil says Jake Peavy better show better stuff than 91-92 mph fastballs. Ehh, Peavy always was a 91-92 mph fastball pitcher.

- Erik looks at various 2010 AL Central forecasts.

- The White Sox hired Jerry Krause as a minor league scout. Krause has extensive baseball scouting experience. He was a scout for the Sox in the 70s and 80s.

- White Sox Opening Day payroll: $105,530,000 million. All MLB player salaries.

- Jim looks where recent ex-Sox players are.

- FutureSox: Kannapolis Intimidators season preview. Futuresox: Winston-Salem Dash season preview. al.com: Birmingham Barons season preview.

- Joe Cowley says the Sox need as fast start to put some quarters in Kenny’s pocket.

Phil Rogers’ AL Central predictions

Rogers:

1. Twins, 89-73
2. White Sox, 85-77
3. Tigers, 84-78
4. Royals, 73-89
5. Indians, 68-94

NY Times says the Sox will win the AL Central

Kepner:

American League Central

1. White Sox – Their rotation could be overpowering, and the offense should be able to score runs in more ways. Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios need to be consistent power sources, but Gordon Beckham is a rising star. …

Keith Olbermann on the 2010 White Sox

Olbermann:

I’m less confident about assessing CHICAGO than I am about any other team in the majors. Here is a team with the terrific burgeoning talent of Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin – yet its success will depend much more on virtual castoffs like Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Alex Rios, and Mark Teahen. Here, if Jake Peavy rebounds, is a four-man rotation as good as any in the game, but a bullpen where only one guy (Matt Thornton) does not start the season as a question mark (how could you possibly get as many ex-studs in one place as Kenny Williams has in Scott Linebrink, J.J. Putz, and Tony Pena?). The White Sox could easily win the division, but I would hesitate to bet on it.

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: AL Central

Paine @ B-R:

This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango’s Marcel projection system.

Rk	Team	Div	W	L	Plyff	wLDS	wLCS	wWS
1	MIN	AL-C	84.9	77.1	53.4%	23.1%	10.0%	4.7%
2	DET	AL-C	81.2	80.8	25.8%	10.2%	4.0%	1.5%
3	CHA	AL-C	79.5	82.5	17.9%	6.3%	2.6%	1.0%
4	CLE	AL-C	76.4	85.6	8.1%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
5	KCA	AL-C	70.5	91.5	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

…

Fangraphs’ Fan Standings

Appelman:

Twins        82
White Sox    79
Tigers       78
Indians      76
Royals       73

2010 Wins Over/Unders

Vegas Watch:

Chicago W- 82
Minnesota- 82
Detroit- 81
Cleveland- 73
Kansas City- 71

BP’s AL Central division preview

Kahrl:

Why They Might Win: They’ve scrupulously followed the formula that worked in 2005 in assembling their 2010 team: a rotation so good that a former ace ranks as the fifth starter. That was Orlando Hernandez then, and it’s Freddy Garcia now. A bullpen stocked with multiple closers? With the addition of J.J. Putz and the emergence of Matt Thornton to support Bobby Jenks, check. Power up the middle? With Alex Rios in center and Gordon Beckham moving to second to join shortstop Alexei Ramirez and catcher A.J. Pierzynski, that’s looking good, too.

Why They Might Not Win: If Jake Peavy breaks down, the rotation starts to look a lot less impressive. If Rios continues to sleep-walk his way through the South Side portion of his career, he’ll be the most expensive mistake ever made involving revocable waivers. And the thing about that 2005 plan… did they really have to follow the part about getting a leadoff hitter who doesn’t get on base? I see your Podzilla and raise you a Juan Pierre. The hitting portion of being a DH is non-optional, yet that’s what the Sox are probably stuck with if they settle for Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. …

February 16 links

- Dan Hudson comes in at no. 9 in Phil Rogers’ ROY predictions.

- Could the Sox move their games and anchor a new FM sports radio station in Chicago?

- B-R will get Negro League (1940-1948) and Cuban statistics.

- Sox have won 14 and lost 8 arbitration hearings since 1974 when arbitration began.

- “There is a good chance that [Yuniesky] Maya will choose a team that offers a better opportunity to immediately enter its starting rotation.” (Bradford).

- Gregor’s spring training preview. Whitesox.com spring training previews here, here, and here.

- PECOTA has been updated. Sox projected at 80-82 in a tight AL Central.

2009 Midterm report

whitesox.com:

Detroit holds a slim lead in the American League Central entering the 2009 intermission, and the White Sox have a brutal second-half schedule that includes 10 games with Detroit, eight games against Boston, seven against the Yankees, six against the Angels and just six apiece against Cleveland and Kansas City. For this competitive but less-than-stellar division, there’s little doubt that the White Sox, Tigers and Twins will be battling down to the season’s last week.

Seems we already have written off the games against the Twinkies.