Baseball Musings’ AL Central preview

Pinto:

… Here’s how I see the odds of the five teams winning the division:

1. Minnesota Twins 31%
2. Chicago White Sox 30%
3. Detroit Tigers 29%
4. Cleveland Indians 6%
5. Kansas City Royals 4%

Vegas Watch 2011 MLB Wins Over/Unders

VW’s AL Central Wins Over/Unders:

Minnesota- 87
Chicago W- 84.5
Detroit- 83.5
Cleveland- 71
Kansas City- 70

Alex Rios: We’re the team to beat [UPDATE]

Gregor @ DH:

At the end of his typically abbreviated chat with reporters, Rios was asked if the White Sox are the team to beat in the AL Central this season.

“Oh, yeah,” Rios said. “Definitely. We’re the team to beat. We have good additions to the team. The core is solid and with the additions we’re even stronger. I think we’re going to give a hard time to a lot of people out there.”

Can we beat the Twinkies first, Alex? What the heck happened to humility?

JJ’s take is here.

UPDATE: Here’s Ozzie:

Guillen wants his players to be confident but not boastful, until they have fulfilled their potential. And he doesn’t want them to be consumed with AL Central nemesis Minnesota despite incessant questions about how much better they stack up against the Twins following their offseason upgrades.

“The one thing I’m concerned about is don’t let the hype get you,” Guillen said. “We haven’t done anything yet. We haven’t proved anything yet. We don’t know what’s going to happen. All that stuff like ‘we should win, we should have to win’ — keep that thing behind. Prove to people what you can do, show them what you can do. And then you talk.

“Just play your game. Let your ability take over and the confidence. Be confident, but don’t be cocky. And that’s one of the things I worry about.”

Still too early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings (version 0.6)

SG @ RLYW:

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
White Sox	84.3	77.7	718	704	36.1%	5.7%	41.8%	-3.7	-25	-41
Twins	82.3	79.7	744	727	26.9%	5.0%	31.9%	-11.7	-37	56
Tigers	81.9	80.1	714	697	27.7%	5.5%	33.2%	0.9	-37	-46
Indians	70.6	91.4	711	804	6.2%	1.4%	7.6%	1.6	65	52
Royals	66.2	95.8	658	806	3.1%	0.7%	3.8%	-0.8	-18	-39

 

 

 

 

 

The previous standings (December 28) were:

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	752	715	33.3%	6.2%	39.5%	-8.3	-29	44
White Sox	84.5	77.5	735	711	28.4%	6.2%	34.5%	-3.5	-17	7
Tigers	84.0	78.0	727	712	27.5%	4.6%	32.0%	3.0	-24	-31
Indians	73.9	88.1	728	802	8.2%	2.7%	10.8%	4.9	82	50
Royals	66.9	95.1	678	815	2.8%	1.1%	3.9%	-0.1	2	-30

The Sox are up, while the Twinkies and the Tigers are down.

BTW, seems Kenny read the suggestions at that post!

BTB has the White Sox rotation as the best in the AL Central

Satchel Price:

When this rotation is healthy, few teams west of Philly can boast a stronger group from top to bottom. Buehrle might average 86 MPH with his fastball, but he’s essentially a lock for 200+ innings and 3+ WAR. Danks, Floyd and Jackson have shown continued improvement over the past couple years; each posted 3.8 WAR or higher last season and they all have the potential to exceed that mark again in 2011. The No. 5 spot in the rotation is murky, but the upside is massive between Peavy and Sale. And even if Peavy doesn’t return until June and Sale is the club’s closer, this is still an obvious strength given how good the front four guys are. When you look at this group of guys and where some of them started, it’s hard not credit Don Cooper for everything he’s done in Chicago. People love what Dave Duncan does for the Cardinals in St. Louis, but there’s no doubt that the AL has a similar equivalent in Mr. Cooper.

Dan Szymborski’s White Sox 2011 ZiPS Projections

Szymborski @ BBTF:

It’s not a world-beating team, but the White Sox are my early pick for the AL Central, edging out the Tigers and a little above the Twins. The team’s not headed for a 95-win season, but they are generally solid without a lot of major holes, though they could use another bullpen arm. …

Here are the first 5 hitting projections:

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adam Dunn         L    DH   31   .252 .383 .539 147 497  81 125  24   1  39  98 102 190   1   1  142
Paul Konerko      R    1B   35   .273 .358 .500 133 484  70 132  24   1  28  86  62  92   1   1  126
Carlos Quentin    R    RF   28   .261 .358 .495 128 444  74 116  25   2  25  88  49  79   4   2  125
Alexis Rios       R    CF   30   .273 .321 .440 153 605  84 165  33   4  20  84  40 103  26  10  100
Dallas McPherson  L    DH   30   .226 .310 .487 105 380  51  86  17   2  26  63  44 153   5   2  106
...

and the the first 5 pitching projections:

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
John Danks        L      26     3.82    15    9   32   32   200.3  189   85   21   65  161   117
Jake Peavy        R      30     3.89    10    6   20   20   120.3  110   52   14   40  119   115
Gavin Floyd       R      28     3.95    14    9   30   30   189.3  186   83   20   57  157   113
Mark Buehrle      L      32     4.30    13   10   30   30   190.3  214   91   21   45  103   104
Chris Sale        L      22     4.40    10    8   40   20   143.3  143   70   18   52  130   102
...

I hope and expect Beckham will have a better year than what his projection says!

J.J. Stankevitz looks on the ZiPS projections. BTW, Brett Ballantini sees 93 wins and a division title.

THT looks on spending by MLB clubs over the last decade

From the AL Central section of Matt Binder’s article on THT:

While the AL East graph showed some team-to-team consistency (save possibly the Rays), the AL Central graph shows a mess. The Twins have been an underdog, spending more than the league average only once, in 2010 . This is especially impressive considering they were almost contracted into oblivion. The AL Central is the lowest-spending division on average, with the White Sox being the only team to average above the major league average during the ten-year period.

Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Here’s the extremely early, unset rosters, AL Central projection:

TEAM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	752	715	33.3%	6.2%	39.5%	-8.3	-29	44
White Sox	84.5	77.5	735	711	28.4%	6.2%	34.5%	-3.5	-17	7
Tigers	84.0	78.0	727	712	27.5%	4.6%	32.0%	3.0	-24	-31
Indians	73.9	88.1	728	802	8.2%	2.7%	10.8%	4.9	82	50
Royals	66.9	95.1	678	815	2.8%	1.1%	3.9%	-0.1	2	-30

One more addition? How about Justin Duchscherer? Or a reliever? Is Will Ohman a good option? Alfredo Aceves? More FA names with 2011 salary projections here.

How about taking a flyer on Lastings Milledge?

The Hardball Times’ 2011 projections

Introduction. THT’s Forecasted Final 2011 Standings:

American League Central
Team	Wins	Losses
DET	87	75
MIN	79	83
CHA	79	83
CLE	68	94
KCA	58	104

A computer projection that’s not upbeat about the White Sox. Nothing new here!

White Sox attendance down 4%, Minnesota up 36%. MLB revenues up.

Maury Brown (BoB) @ FG:

Team	# Gms	2009 Attend	2009 Avg	# Gms	2010 Attend	2010 Avg	Diff	Dif Per Gm	% (+/-)
Twins	81	2,362,149	29,162	81	3,223,640	39,798	861,491	10,636	36.47%
White Sox	81	2,284,163	28,200	81	2,194,378	27,091	-89,785	-1,108	-3.93%
Tigers	81	2,567,192	31,694	81	2,461,237	30,386	-105,955	-1,308	-4.13%
Royals	81	1,799,686	22,218	81	1,615,327	19,942	-184,359	-2,276	-10.24%
Indians	81	1,766,242	21,805	81	1,391,644	17,181	-374,598	-4,625	-21.21%

However, MLB is projected to pull in a record $7 billion in revenues:

Major League Baseball is projecting gross revenues of $7 billion for 2010, continuing a run of record-breaking years, and bucking the chilly economy. … In 2009, final revenues were $6.6 billion up from $6.5 billion in 2008. The increase from 2009 to the projected 2010 figure is a remarkable 6.06 percent increase, an incredible jump in an economy that continues to run chilly.

How were the increases reached? Sources at Major League Baseball say one big component is local television deals that have annual escalators. The other is for expiring TV deals in the very competitive market where regional sports networks (RSNs) are clamoring for more live content, there are significant increases.

White Sox attendance: 50,000 less through 65 games

BoB (via B-R):

Club	2009 #Gms	2009	2009 Avg	2010 #Gms	2010	2010 Avg	Diff Total	Diff Avg
Indians	68	1,483,789	21,820	68	1,174,888	17,278	-308,901	-4,543
Royals	68	1,546,703	22,746	68	1,359,118	19,987	-187,585	-2,759
Tigers	70	2,224,031	31,772	70	2,152,892	30,756	-71,139	-1,016
White Sox	65	1,828,375	28,129	65	1,777,911	27,352	-50,464	-776
Twins	70	2,007,032	28,672	70	2,783,388	39,763	776,356	11,091

Look at the Twinkies. Last year both the Sox and the Twinkies were drawing around 28,000 per game. This year the Twinkies, at new target field, are drawing nearly 40,000 per game while the Sox dropped to a little more than 27,000 per game.

Fangraphs reviews the 2010 AL Central draft classes

Smith:

I have to hope and assume that Sale will soak in some knowledge from Don Cooper these last two months, but then be ready to open next season in Double-A, as a starter. Petricka has some fantastic potential, and don’t sleep on ninth-round pick Kevin Moran, who also has a good arm. …

FutureSox looks at the AL Central team draft pending

Buchanan @ FS:

The 2010 Draft signing deadline came and went with no new signing for the White Sox, but plenty of other teams were active, including the Sox’ AL Central counterparts. I take a look at the draft spending for each team in the Central to see if the White Sox are extremely cheap, or if it’s just my imagination. …

Odds to win the division

Odds to win the division from BP and Yahoo:

	White Sox	Tigers	Twins
BP Regular	40.9	31.9	26.8
BP PECOTA	52.6	31.4	16
BP ELO	59.9	22.1	17.5
Accuscore	38.5	29	32.5

Good thing we don’t play the Rangers again this season

MLBTR:

Cliff Lee is joining his fourth team in 12 months and the Rangers are hoping he can lead them to the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The Rangers pried Lee away from the Mariners and multiple suitors today in a blockbuster deal that makes the 50-35 Rangers clear favorites to win the AL West.

They obtained Lee, Mark Lowe (who is out for the season with back surgery) and cash considerations from the Mariners for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson and Josh Lueke.

White Sox games remaining against the Rangers: 0

Twins games remaining against the Rangers: 7

Tigers games remaining against the Rangers: 5