White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

April 3, 2012

RLYW’s 2012 MLB Projection Blowout

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ April 3, 2012 3:00 pm
Tags: ,

SG has aggregated his standings projections. Here are the AL Central projected standings:

This year, I’m using five different projection systems.  …

CAIRO, which is my own projection system.
Tangotiger’s Marcel.
The Hardball Times’s Oliver.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA.
Dan Szyborski’s ZiPS.

I should note that the Marcel projections used here were generated using Python code provided by Jeff Sackmann and are not the “official” projections, although they should be almost identical.  I’ll also mention that Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS have their own projected standings so these should not be considered the official version of those forecasts.  Playing time distribution, run environments and park factors may cause some divergence between what those forecasts say and what mine say.  When in doubt, go with the official ones. …

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 86 76 784 736 53.5% 1.1% 11.0% 65.6% 76 – 96
CLE 82 80 767 751 30.7% 1.6% 7.8% 40.1% 72 – 92
CHA 76 86 707 772 8.0% 1.0% 2.8% 11.8% 66 – 86
KC 75 87 705 765 5.6% 0.4% 1.6% 7.7% 65 – 85
MIN 71 91 731 822 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 61 – 81

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 – 97
CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 – 94
CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 – 84
KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 – 83
MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 – 8

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Marcel Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 84 78 756 723 41.0% 1.5% 9.9% 52.4% 74 – 94
CLE 83 79 755 738 33.7% 2.0% 8.4% 44.1% 73 – 93
CHA 79 83 697 714 13.1% 2.0% 5.1% 20.2% 69 – 89
KC 78 84 708 735 11.0% 1.2% 3.6% 15.7% 68 – 88
MIN 70 92 711 818 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – Oliver Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 88 74 760 696 67.2% 1.5% 14.1% 82.7% 78 – 98
CHA 79 83 695 711 13.0% 2.4% 5.5% 20.9% 69 – 89
CLE 79 83 753 771 12.9% 1.9% 5.9% 20.7% 69 – 89
KC 76 86 705 754 4.7% 0.7% 2.4% 7.7% 66 – 86
MIN 73 89 716 793 2.2% 0.4% 1.4% 3.9% 63 – 83

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – PECOTA Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 85 77 789 746 56.9% 0.7% 11.2% 68.9% 75 – 95
CLE 82 80 776 757 33.3% 1.0% 8.3% 42.7% 72 – 92
CHA 75 87 712 806 6.1% 0.4% 1.5% 7.9% 65 – 85
MIN 71 91 739 835 2.3% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 61 – 81
KC 70 92 697 803 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 60 – 80

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout – ZiPS Edition:

Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
DET 84 78 812 776 47.4% 0.8% 9.2% 57.4% 74 – 94
CLE 83 79 792 768 37.2% 0.8% 7.0% 44.9% 73 – 93
KC 76 86 731 781 7.5% 0.0% 1.1% 8.6% 66 – 86
CHA 74 88 730 827 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 5.8% 64 – 84
MIN 72 90 762 846 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.7% 62 – 82

There is a common theme on all these…

About these ads

Leave a Comment »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

The Rubric Theme. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: