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February 13, 2012

Clay Davenport’s 2012 White Sox projections

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ February 13, 2012 12:00 am
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Clay Davenport has published his 2012 projections (Feb 12). Projected division standings:

AL Central Won Lost Runs F Runs A
DET 88 74 770 701
CWS 79 83 697 721
CLE 77 85 700 736
MIN 72 90 678 763
KCR 71 91 681 779

The projections for the Sox hitters:

Last First Age Pos PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS TRND HBP BA OBP SLG EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA EQR VORP Defense FRAA WARP Upside1 Break Improve Collapse Attrition Comparables
CWS TEAM -25 6104 5574 697 1469 285 22 191 665 474 1122 98 45 -3 57 0.264 0.328 0.425 0.26 0.328 0.411 0.254 673 209 7 5 21 20.3 17 39.6 28.7 23.8 0
Konerko Paul 36 1B 627 549 75 156 28 1 31 98 70 96 1 1 -35 7 0.285 0.373 0.509 0.278 0.373 0.489 0.29 89 38 118-1B 4 4.4 37 11 32 28 31 Rafael_Palmeiro,Norm_Cash,Will_Clark,Joe_Adcock
Ramirez Alexei 30 SS 607 563 71 155 30 2 17 77 41 77 9 4 10 3 0.275 0.328 0.425 0.273 0.329 0.413 0.254 67 28 136-SS 0 2.9 19 16 37 30 14 Frank_Bolling,Johnny_Logan,Jack_Wilson,Todd_Walker
De_Aza Alejandro 28 LF 587 539 74 150 29 5 10 53 44 102 24 9 -22 4 0.279 0.338 0.411 0.277 0.34 0.405 0.256 66 17 131-LF 2 2.4 13 13 39 31 29 Kevin_Romine,Trent_Oeltjen,Matt_Diaz,Kevin_Thompson
Rios Alex 31 CF 562 526 74 143 28 2 17 48 31 79 17 8 0 4 0.271 0.317 0.431 0.27 0.319 0.421 0.252 62 22 121-CF 2 1.9 23 23 47 29 32 Garry_Maddox,Juan_Beniquez,Marquis_Grissom,Jim_Busby
Viciedo Dayan 23 RF 562 524 63 140 24 1 20 65 33 109 2 2 19 5 0.268 0.317 0.432 0.263 0.316 0.418 0.25 60 12 145-RF 0 0.8 12 22 42 30 17 Cody_Haerther,Mark_Ryal,Juan_Rivera,Brandon_Moss
Dunn Adam 32 1B 544 463 61 107 21 1 25 69 75 163 0 1 -35 5 0.231 0.345 0.443 0.224 0.345 0.42 0.264 64 17 121-1B 2 1.4 31 12 34 36 32 Tony_Solaita,Brian_Daubach,Russell_Branyan,Jim_Gentile
Beckham Gordon 25 2B 516 471 55 123 26 2 16 45 37 90 5 3 48 9 0.262 0.327 0.424 0.26 0.328 0.412 0.252 56 21 137-2B 1 2.2 25 25 50 15 12 Wil_Cordero,Glenn_Hubbard,Kurt_Stillwell,Adrian_Beltre
Morel Brent 25 3B 500 471 53 127 26 2 13 48 26 73 8 3 38 2 0.27 0.312 0.417 0.267 0.312 0.404 0.245 52 12 142-3B -2 1.4 17 26 46 16 16 Mike_Lamb,Mike_Richardt,Daniel_Murphy,Rich_Aurilia
Lillibridge Brent 28 RF 484 437 59 105 21 2 15 46 41 122 24 9 19 6 0.24 0.314 0.401 0.241 0.319 0.392 0.246 51 8 91-RF 3 1.4 27 19 43 23 16 Gerald_Williams,Bob_Brower,Curtis_Pride,Reggie_Sanders
Pierzynski A.J. 35 C 418 396 40 112 21 1 9 43 19 37 1 1 -43 3 0.283 0.321 0.413 0.281 0.321 0.401 0.246 43 17 93-C -1 1.5 12 9 35 40 40 Brian_Harper,Mike_Redmond,Mike_Lieberthal,Darrin_Fletcher
Flowers Tyler 26 C 261 228 27 53 10 1 9 28 29 77 1 1 -13 4 0.232 0.33 0.407 0.229 0.332 0.395 0.251 28 12 110-C -2 0.8 13 8 35 36 24 Kelly_Shoppach,George_Kottaras,Eric_Crozier,Benji_Simonton
Martinez Osvaldo 24 SS 98 92 10 23 4 1 1 9 6 15 2 1 -3 1 0.256 0.304 0.341 0.251 0.302 0.333 0.224 8 1 134-SS -4 0.1 4 17 38 37 27 Luis_Nunez,Denny_Hocking,Juan_Castro,Juan_Gonzalez
Escobar Eduardo 23 SS 66 63 7 16 3 1 1 6 3 13 1 1 1 0 0.248 0.284 0.337 0.242 0.28 0.327 0.215 5 0 139-SS -2 0 2 24 40 33 24 Sharlon_Schoop,Anderson_Hernandez,Tony_Pena,Argenis_Diaz
Young Delwyn 30 RF 37 34 4 8 2 0 1 3 2 8 0 0 -6 0 0.243 0.298 0.377 0.239 0.298 0.358 0.228 3 0 85-RF -1 0 6 11 27 50 49 Bruce_Aven,Lyle_Mouton,Joe_Borchard,Butch_Huskey
Shoemaker Brady 25 LF 37 34 4 9 2 0 1 3 3 9 0 0 1 0 0.257 0.317 0.386 0.252 0.315 0.373 0.239 4 0 122-LF 1 0.1 12 13 44 32 13 Jason_Grove,Jeremy_Slayden,Tony_Acevedo,Joey_Butler
Johnson Dan 32 1B 35 30 4 7 2 0 1 5 4 6 0 0 -4 0 0.245 0.341 0.43 0.242 0.344 0.413 0.26 4 1 88-1B 3 0.1 9 19 27 40 47 Larry_Sutton,Keith_Ginter,Jason_Lane,Jack_Voigt
Short Brandon 23 CF 34 32 4 8 2 0 1 4 2 8 1 0 0 0 0.248 0.292 0.38 0.245 0.292 0.368 0.229 3 1 133-CF -2 -0.1 6 19 39 35 21 Torii_Hunter,Jereme_Milons,Josh_Kroeger,Chris_Aguila
Thompson Trayce 21 CF 34 31 4 7 1 0 1 4 2 10 0 0 1 0 0.218 0.278 0.364 0.212 0.276 0.347 0.219 3 0 132-CF 0 -0.1 4 32 45 38 23 Darond_Stovall,Jai_Miller,Andrew_Rundle,Kyler_Burke
Danks Jordan 25 CF 33 30 3 7 1 0 1 3 3 9 1 0 -1 0 0.238 0.302 0.377 0.235 0.304 0.365 0.232 3 1 123-CF 0 0 9 11 35 36 24 Brad_Snyder,Steve_Hosey,Kinnis_Pledger,Corey_Brown
Smith Kevan 24 C 32 29 3 8 2 0 1 3 2 5 0 0 -2 0 0.257 0.322 0.394 0.256 0.324 0.382 0.243 3 1 114-C -4 0.1 8 0 18 49 9 Barry_Gunther,Mike_Stefanski,Joe_Durso,Brian_Bormaster

And the projections for the Sox pitchers:

Last First Age Role W L SV G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GBO% BABIP Trend WHIP RA ERA PERA EqERA EqH9 EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9 VORP RAA WARP Upside Break Improve Collapse Attrition Comparables
CWS TEAM 79 83 40 533 162 1460 1368 721 671 149 515 1170 45 0.28 28 1.29 4.44 4.14 4.05 4.25 8.5 3.1 6.2 1 175 -3 19 59 17 45 25 13 0
Danks John 27 Sta 11 11 0 30 30 199.3 190 97 91 20 62 154 46 0.283 27 1.26 4.39 4.09 3.97 4.17 8.7 2.7 6 1 27 4 2.8 92 7 46 17 8 Joel_Pineiro,Jeff_Francis,Jason_Schmidt,Brad_Penny
Floyd Gavin 29 Sta 11 11 0 30 30 195.7 188 91 85 19 50 150 49 0.284 22 1.22 4.19 3.9 3.82 3.99 8.6 2.3 6 0.9 30 8 3.2 114 11 41 19 11 Dwight_Gooden,Matt_Morris,Johnny_Podres,Steve_Rogers
Humber Philip 29 Sta 8 9 0 26 26 154.3 155 81 75 16 45 108 46 0.288 35 1.29 4.7 4.37 4.26 4.3 9 2.6 5.5 1.1 15 -2 1.6 28 16 49 24 11 Chris_Narveson,Jim_Brower,Colby_Lewis,Scott_Kamieniecki
Peavy Jake 31 Sta 8 8 0 23 23 141.7 134 66 62 15 36 113 43 0.28 8 1.2 4.22 3.92 3.78 4.07 8.6 2.3 6.2 1.1 22 6 2.4 108 5 42 20 12 Jason_Schmidt,Wandy_Rodriguez,John_Candelaria,Sterling_Hitchcock
Sale Chris 23 Sta 7 8 0 22 22 133.3 123 66 61 13 49 119 54 0.285 45 1.29 4.44 4.13 3.94 3.81 7.8 3.4 7.4 0.8 15 1 1.6 73 24 44 35 6 Francisco_Rodrigue,Joba_Chamberlain,Ambiorix_Burgos,Len_Barker
Axelrod Dylan 26 Swi 6 6 0 27 14 114.7 109 55 51 12 37 85 43 0.279 9 1.27 4.34 4.04 4.06 4.34 8.7 2.8 5.7 0.9 14 2 1.5 23 17 43 28 20 Tony_Fossas,Jason_Rakers,Shawn_Sedlacek,Richard_Strasser
Heath Deunte 26 Swi 3 4 0 28 6 68.7 61 39 36 8 40 60 40 0.271 15 1.47 5.13 4.77 4.61 4.89 8.4 5 6.6 1.2 2 -4 0.2 11 24 48 29 26 Todd_Credeur,Cedrick_Bowers,Ramon_Romero,Josh_Schmidt
Stewart Zach 25 Sta 3 4 0 11 11 63.3 67 36 33 7 22 39 48 0.293 30 1.4 5.1 4.75 4.77 4.62 9.3 3.1 4.9 1 3 -4 0.3 11 22 47 19 21 John_Cummings,Brad_Rigby,Kevin_Jarvis,Clayton_Mortensen
Reed Addison 23 Rel 4 3 8 39 0 60 49 24 22 6 18 57 33 0.259 32 1.12 3.6 3.35 3.18 4.06 8 2.4 7.1 1.1 14 6 1.5 31 21 44 36 9 Evan_Scribner,Jesse_Carlson,Tony_Sipp,Smokey_Everett
Thornton Matt 35 Rel 4 3 30 60 0 60 52 24 23 5 19 56 47 0.274 56 1.17 3.65 3.4 3.38 3.73 7.8 2.7 7.2 0.8 16 5 1.8 57 28 44 34 5 Mike_Stanton,Paul_Assenmacher,Steve_Farr,Billy_Wagner
Crain Jesse 30 Rel 3 3 2 60 0 60 51 28 26 6 28 57 37 0.267 40 1.31 4.17 3.88 3.87 4.37 7.9 4.1 7.4 0.9 9 0 1 45 26 39 33 9 Alan_Embree,Mike_Jackson,Craig_Breslow,Kevin_Gregg
Castro Simon 24 Rel 2 3 0 24 0 50 46 27 25 6 20 38 38 0.267 33 1.32 4.81 4.48 4.33 4.84 9.3 3.1 5.1 1.4 3 -2 0.4 10 17 53 16 19 Matt_Chico,Mitch_Atkins,Drew_Naylor,Andre_Treadway
Bruney Brian 30 Rel 2 3 0 50 0 50 45 27 25 5 28 43 45 0.274 27 1.47 4.83 4.5 4.57 4.69 8.2 4.8 6.5 1 1 -2 0.1 17 22 44 33 14 Richie_Lewis,Yorkis_Perez,Toby_Borland,Ron_Villone
Ohman Will 34 Rel 2 3 0 45 0 45 39 22 21 4 19 41 45 0.274 39 1.29 4.42 4.12 3.87 4.06 8.4 3.5 6.9 1.1 3 -1 0.4 32 29 48 33 17 Mark_Guthrie,Doug_Bair,Jeffrey_Williams,Steve_Reed
Infante Gregory 24 Rel 2 2 0 28 0 34 33 20 18 3 20 25 46 0.28 61 1.53 5.26 4.9 4.93 5.05 8.8 4.9 5.5 0.9 0 -3 0 11 24 58 13 16 Zachary_Phillips,Lee_Langley,Francis_Beltran,Willie_Eyre
Veal Donnie 27 Rel 1 2 0 30 0 30 27 18 17 3 23 26 44 0.272 16 1.66 5.39 5.02 5.16 5.49 8.7 6.3 5.9 1 0 -2 0 9 24 48 26 27 Jeff_Zaske,Jon_Cannon,Mike_Bumatay,Colin_McLaughlin

From a quick glance these look too good! 750 OPS out of Dunn/Rios, nearly 800 OPS out of Beckham, and WHIPs in the 1.2s from the entire starting rotation.

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10 Comments »

  1. Haha, he projects a higher OBP for Kevan Smith than AJ Pierzynski. This amuses me.

    Comment by JJ — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 12:33 am | Reply

    • with numbers like these, the Sox could be in the race for a wildcard…

      Comment by The Wizard — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 1:24 pm | Reply

  2. Oh, and the comps for Delwyn Young are just the best. I can’t decide what’s the better name:

    Bruce Aven, Lyle Mouton, Joe Borchard, Butch Huskey

    Comment by JJ — February 13, 2012 @ February 13, 2012 12:35 am | Reply

  3. So, more Dan Johnson?

    Comment by JRFegan — February 14, 2012 @ February 14, 2012 10:29 pm | Reply

  4. [...] would be fun, but pointless.  Delwyn Young as a 5th outfielder would probably just be pointless.  Clay Davenport depressingly projected 1B Dan Johnson to be the 3rd best hitter on the team in 2012, but save for 13 games, he's only [...]

    Pingback by Position Battles! | White Sox Observer — February 27, 2012 @ February 27, 2012 2:16 am | Reply


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