Adam Dunn's self diagnosis: too many off-speed pitches early in the count [UPDATE]

Gonzales @ CT:

Dunn believes his recent struggles stem from being too aggressive and that opposing pitchers are taking advantage by throwing off-speed pitches early in the count.

“And that’s not my game,” Dunn said. “Everything is there except me swinging at bad pitches,” Dunn continued. “I’m working the count, usually putting myself in usually good hitters’ counts but not making them pay.”

Unfortunately for Dunn, I don’t think we can order opposing pitchers what to throw.

UPDATE: As James says don’t trust what Dunn says. Let’s take a look at the pitches thrown at Dunn on 0-0 counts.

Data from the the TexasLeaguers.com Pitch-F/X database:

2011:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	158	46.7%	57.6%	29.1%	8.9%	10.1%	10.1%
FT	42	12.4%	64.3%	31.0%	14.3%	11.9%	4.8%
SI	33	9.8%	45.5%	24.2%	0.0%	18.2%	6.1%
SL	32	9.5%	56.3%	21.9%	12.5%	3.1%	6.3%
CH	29	8.6%	65.5%	31.0%	10.3%	6.9%	13.8%
CU	24	7.1%	66.7%	12.5%	4.2%	4.2%	4.2%
FC	13	3.8%	46.2%	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	0.0%
FS	3	0.9%	66.7%	66.7%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%
KN	3	0.9%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FA	1	0.3%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

2010:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	252	40.4%	56.3%	29.0%	6.3%	14.7%	7.9%
SL	83	13.3%	47.0%	22.9%	9.6%	4.8%	8.4%
CH	72	11.5%	54.2%	37.5%	18.1%	5.6%	13.9%
CU	62	9.9%	54.8%	11.3%	4.8%	4.8%	1.6%
SI	57	9.1%	56.1%	28.1%	12.3%	3.5%	12.3%
FT	53	8.5%	64.2%	35.8%	9.4%	15.1%	11.3%
FC	31	5.0%	61.3%	35.5%	9.7%	9.7%	16.1%
KN	8	1.3%	75.0%	50.0%	12.5%	25.0%	12.5%
FA	5	0.8%	100.0%	60.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.0%
FS	1	0.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

2009:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	327	50.1%	55.7%	25.7%	5.2%	11.0%	9.5%
SL	121	18.5%	60.3%	28.1%	9.9%	11.6%	6.6%
CH	75	11.5%	56.0%	30.7%	13.3%	6.7%	10.7%
CU	66	10.1%	53.0%	10.6%	1.5%	7.6%	1.5%
FA	21	3.2%	33.3%	19.0%	0.0%	4.8%	14.3%
FC	16	2.5%	31.3%	6.3%	6.3%	0.0%	0.0%
FT	15	2.3%	60.0%	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	0.0%
SI	12	1.8%	41.7%	25.0%	8.3%	0.0%	16.7%

2008:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FA	382	61.0%	55.2%	28.5%	4.7%	13.4%	10.5%
CU	85	13.6%	51.8%	16.5%	7.1%	3.5%	5.9%
SL	71	11.3%	56.3%	28.2%	12.7%	8.5%	7.0%
CH	68	10.9%	48.5%	13.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.9%
FC	7	1.1%	42.9%	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%
SI	5	0.8%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%
KN	4	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FF	3	0.5%	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%
FS	1	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

and

Pitch Types Key
FA	Fastball
FF	4-seam Fastball
FT	2-seam Fastball
FC	Cut Fastball
FS	Split-finger Fastball
FO	Forkball
SI	Sinker
SL	Slider
CU	Curveball
KC	Knuckle Curve
EP	Ephuus
CH	Change-up
SC	Screwball
KN	Knuckleball
UN	Unknown

So, the non-4seam fastballs thrown to Dunn were 49.9%-53.1 on 2009, 59.6%-60.4% in 2010 and 53.3%-53.6% in 2011. Seems the pitch classification wasn’t good in 2008.

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