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December 9, 2010

How would Adam Dunn’s stats look if he was playing for the Sox?

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ December 9, 2010 9:30 pm
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I saw on Fangraphs’ Adrian Gonzales article that “B-R has a feature that allows us to adjust a hitter’s offensive production for run environment (runs/game), league (AL or NL), and park,” and I thought why not use the same tool on Adam Dunn? Here are the results (each year is adjusted to that year’s run environment as in the Fangraphs article):

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO HBP SF BA OBP SLG OPS RC Gact
2001 21 66 291 247 55 67 18 1 19 44 4 40 74 4 0 .271 .381 .583 .964 55 66
2002 22 158 708 551 89 149 31 2 29 75 21 144 170 10 3 .270 .428 .492 .920 114 158
2003 23 116 499 396 80 97 14 1 32 65 10 87 126 12 4 .245 .393 .528 .921 79 116
2004 24 161 712 586 118 169 38 0 52 114 7 121 195 5 0 .288 .414 .619 1.033 148 161
2005 25 160 705 560 117 151 39 2 45 111 4 129 168 14 2 .270 .417 .588 1.005 134 160
2006 26 160 703 572 103 142 26 0 43 96 8 121 194 7 3 .248 .384 .519 .903 113 160
2007 27 152 646 530 106 146 28 2 42 110 10 107 165 5 4 .275 .399 .574 .973 122 152
2008 28 158 676 529 84 134 25 0 44 107 2 134 164 8 5 .253 .408 .550 .958 118 158
2009 29 159 700 564 91 164 33 0 43 118 0 130 177 4 2 .291 .426 .578 1.004 137 159
2010 30 158 666 570 92 157 38 2 42 113 0 83 199 9 4 .275 .374 .570 .944 119 158

Here are Adam Dunn’s actual stats:

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ RC
2001 21 CIN NL 66 286 244 54 64 18 1 19 43 4 2 38 74 .262 .371 .578 .948 136 54
2002 22 CIN NL 158 676 535 84 133 28 2 26 71 19 9 128 170 .249 .400 .454 .854 121 107
2003 23 CIN NL 116 469 381 70 82 12 1 27 57 8 2 74 126 .215 .354 .465 .819 116 69
2004 24 CIN NL 161 681 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 6 1 108 195 .266 .388 .569 .956 146 132
2005 25 CIN NL 160 671 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 4 2 114 168 .247 .387 .540 .927 140 122
2006 26 CIN NL 160 683 561 99 131 24 0 40 92 7 0 112 194 .234 .365 .490 .855 114 109
2007 27 CIN NL 152 632 522 101 138 27 2 40 106 9 2 101 165 .264 .386 .554 .940 136 117
2008 28 TOT NL 158 651 517 79 122 23 0 40 100 2 1 122 164 .236 .386 .513 .898 130 111
2008 28 CIN NL 114 464 373 58 87 14 0 32 74 1 1 80 120 .233 .373 .528 .901 132 80
2008 28 ARI NL 44 187 144 21 35 9 0 8 26 1 0 42 44 .243 .417 .472 .889 126 31
2009 29 WSN NL 159 668 546 81 146 29 0 38 105 0 1 116 177 .267 .398 .529 .928 144 122
2010 30 WSN NL 158 648 558 85 145 36 2 38 103 0 1 77 199 .260 .356 .536 .892 138 109
10 Seasons 1448 6065 4975 865 1246 266 10 354 880 59 21 990 1632 .250 .381 .521 .902 133 1052
162 Game Avg. 162 679 557 97 139 30 1 40 98 7 2 111 183 .250 .381 .521 .902 133 118

And here is a more detailed explanation of how the ‘neutralized batting’ tool works:

What is adjusted?

We adjust all of a player’s seasons from the park and league context of the seasons they played in into either a “neutral” setting (which is 100 park factor with 162-game season, 90% of runs earned, and 715 runs/team), or into a setting selected by the user with a particular year, league (with its runs/game and earned runs percentage) and home team (with its park factor). Originally, this was set at 750 as Bill James had done in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, but this is well over the historical average which is about 715 runs/162 games since 1900. So we’ve adjusted this downward to reflect this lower average run scoring. With the old number most every offensive player improved, while with the new number, half get better and half get worse. We’ve still provided a link to 750 if you like that better.

There is no change of role for a player, so playing time is essentially the same proportion as before, though things like At Bats go up as run scoring increases. This also means that Pedro Martinez will only make 30 starts a season even if you put him in the 1914 AL.

How are batters adjusted?

For each player/season, we have their stats (Including Runs Created–note that for neutralization the basic RC, without baserunning, GIDP, etc., is used as the player’s baseline offensive level. This means that when you translate a player back into a context they actually played the RC numbers listed will be different from those listed under Special Batting for recent players.), and then the number of games their team played, their team’s park factor, the league runs/game and if the DH was used that year. We handle trades in the proportional manner you would expect.

For the new setting we have the park factor, the number of games expected, and the run-scoring level. Games are adjusted proportionally and this creates a multiplier.

Runs created are adjusted using the ratio of park factors, ratio of run scoring, and a ratio determined by whether we are coming or going to a DH league.

As part of this conversion, we assume that a player will get singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, HBP, and SB in the same proportion to overall hits as before, so given our adjusted RC, we can then find a new level of hits for the player. (This requires using the quadratic formula, and you thought you’d never need it.)

The player’s outs remain the same, so the new AB’s is the new Hits plus the old outs.

We then compute new 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SB, and HBP.

We assume Runs and RBI are proportional to the change in RC, and since outs doesn’t change neither will SO or SF.

And that is pretty much it for hitters.

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4 Comments »

  1. Adam Dunn could have a great year in a great hitters ballpark next year. 262. avg 41 hr 105 RBI is my prediction.

    Comment by Anonymous — December 10, 2010 @ December 10, 2010 6:20 pm | Reply


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