Run Expectancy by the 24 base out states (RE24) is THE single most important thing to know about baseball. This chart should be in your wallet at all times, opposite the pictures of your wife and kids. (Bonus: you can use it to cover up the picture of your mistress.) You should look at it all the time, study it, learn it. In there, you can unlock all the baseball secrets. It’s that important.
Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002
Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning
The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.Note: All partial innings are excluded. All home innings in the 9th or later are excluded.
(In the next release, I will present the number of times that exactly 0,1,2,3, 4, 5+ runs scored, from each base/out state.)
RE 99-02 0 1 2 Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117 1st 0.953 0.573 0.251 2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344 3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387 1st_2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466 1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538 2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634 Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815
As always, a big thank you to Ray Kerby for providing his software to parse through the play-by-play data.