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October 19, 2010

THE single most important thing to know about baseball

Filed under: Chicago White Sox — The Wizard @ October 19, 2010 6:46 pm
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Tango:

Run Expectancy by the 24 base out states (RE24) is THE single most important thing to know about baseball.  This chart should be in your wallet at all times, opposite the pictures of your wife and kids.  (Bonus: you can use it to cover up the picture of your mistress.) You should look at it all the time, study it, learn it.  In there, you can unlock all the baseball secrets.  It’s that important.

chart:

Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002

Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning

By Tangotiger


The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.Note: All partial innings are excluded. All home innings in the 9th or later are excluded.

(In the next release, I will present the number of times that exactly 0,1,2,3, 4, 5+ runs scored, from each base/out state.)

RE 99-02 0 1 2
Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117
1st 0.953 0.573 0.251
2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344
3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387
1st_2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466
1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538
2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634
Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815

As always, a big thank you to Ray Kerby for providing his software to parse through the play-by-play data.

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