BTB says Gavin Floyd isn't regressing

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… The underlying numbers, on the other hand, indicate that Floyd is far from declining. His FIP is a slightly improved 3.67, although his 4.04 xFIP isn’t as impressive. Floyd is walking slightly more batters this year, but he’s maintained his strikeout rate and increased his groundball rate 5%, up to 49% this season.

One of the primary reasons for his 2009 improvement was an increased ability to miss bats, and that’s something that he hasn’t lost in 2010. His contact rate has actually improved this season, progressing from 82% in 2008 to 78% in 2009, and it’s down to slightly below 77% now. He’s getting more swings on balls outside of the zone, and more swinging strikes in general. So while his ERA does look awfully ugly today, he does seem primed to improve a good deal, and that may have already began in his last start.

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